Draft: 1st Round Preview
one of many large men in the running
With more glaring roster holes and draft picks than we’ve had in years, replenishing the coffers will require a delicate balancing act between value and need and how that butts up against our team-building philosophies. We know the Niners love and value defensive linemen, so—given our depth chart and the surplus of talent at the defensive tackle position—it would theoretically make sense to take a DT at pick 11. But unless Mason Graham falls, doing so would likely satisfy need and team-building philosophy but not value. The meat of this DT class lies in the second half of the first round through the second day.
Similarly, there’s a good chance that one or two highly-touted cornerbacks could be had at 11. That’s also a need, and the value of a high-level starter at a premium position could make quite a lot of sense. But that doesn’t neatly align with our team-building philosophy, which wants to build our defense from the trenches out while mitigating the investment on our secondary. Whether it’s luck, good planning or (most likely) some combination of both, this draft’s positions of strengths mostly align quite well with our positions of need. But obtaining proper value while adhering strictly—but not dogmatically—to our team-building philosophy will be easier said than done. Which is why it’s probably worth talking about a trade down sooner rather than later.
To be clear, I am NOT a “trade down all the time” analytically-inclined spreadsheet bro. If we’re at 11 and only have one guy left on our board with a first-round grade, we should trust our scouting department and draft that guy. The “spray and pray” approach is a fun theoretical exercise for math minds and dweeby Twitter analysts but a terrible way to build a winning team. You need to develop a team-building philosophy, hire the right people to execute it, and empower them to make the right decisions. If you never trust them to make the right call, I can guarantee they never will.
But this draft class lacks consensus up top and has quality depth throughout, including many strong players through its first two days. Don’t be surprised if guys listed in the 30’s and 40’s in prospect rankings start coming off the board in the 10’s and 20’s. Teams’ big boards are going to differ wildly, and that variance means there’s tremendous value potential in trading down.
I have no idea how many players the Niners have given first-round grades, but—if I were them–I’d start planting the idea through sources in the league and the media that our number is somewhere in the high teens (or higher). Whether our number is higher or lower than that is unimportant. We just want to send out the bat signal and let people know that–once we’re on the board at 11–give us a ring and let’s make a deal.
But if pick 11 comes along and our first-round graded players are gone, or–better yet–a high number of them remain, we should be moving down and accumulating value. From 11, a drop five spots is worth a high third-rounder. A ten-spot drop is worth another second, or–perhaps–a future first. The greater the variance in scouting opinions at the top of the draft, the more teams could be interested in moving up to secure their guys–even if their guys don’t overlap at all with ours. Those are the kinds of win-win trades that can drive demand and increase return. So let’s hope we’ve got a list of first-round-graded prospects that stretches well into the late teens (or further) and that we can make a move down to snag one while securing excess draft capital in the process.
THE CONTENDERS
I separated potential candidates at pick 11 into four tiers based on value and personal excitement. Everyone in these tiers feels like a fit and/or has been mocked to us at 11—thus warranting discussion. Everyone else who is expected to go outside the first round (as well as trade down exclusive candidates) will be included in position-specific breakdowns to come. I haven’t included everyone with first-round grades here, as some will be long gone by the time we pick (Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter), some just don’t make sense given our roster composition (Ashton Jeanty), and others could go in the first round but not feasibly as high as 11.
Tiers are in descending order. The number next to each prospect’s name denotes their “consensus” big board ranking at the time of writing and determines their order within each tier. The first two tiers are all guys whom I can confidently say have first-round grades. The third and fourth? Well… as you’ll see, that’s more of a grab bag.
SEND IT!!!
These guys would need to slip below current projections to get to us, but–if they’re available–feel like slam-dunk combinations of value, scheme, and need.
4. DT, Mason Graham - Michigan
6-3.5, 296 lbs.
A dominant interior presence and consensus top 5 player, Graham showed up to the combine 24 pounds lighter than his listed weight and measured in with shorter than average arms. Due to this, there’s been some talk of him slipping down draft boards. We can only dream. This is the sort of big braining shit that gets people fired when they start to overthink things. I don’t think Graham falls, but if he does, picking him is a no-brainer.
Graham is an unblockable force in the center of the defensive line, with a strong first step, a wrestler background that shows, and excellent strength while stacking and ragdolling defenders. He can shoot into the backfield or play the piano down the line of scrimmage in the run game. And while he may not have the pure size and length to give him that Jalen Carter/Quinnen Williams-style upside, I think people vastly overrate length along the interior for a certain type of prospect.
Scouts want to imagine DTs as these long-limbed 350-pounders who push away offensive linemen like a standing bench press before ripping into the backfield. But there’s an entirely different style of interior lineman–the explosive, burly, brick wall types–who have dominated for decades–the Warren Sapps and Aaron Donalds of the world, who win with leverage and quickness and blow past (or through) blockers en route to the quarterback. I’m not saying Graham will reach those heights, but this is a high-floor prospect whose ceiling is far less limited than some would lead you to believe.
Shades of: Those giant stone blocks with faces that fall down and crush Mario
6. OT, Armand Membou, Missouri
6-4, 332 lbs.
There are two types of late risers in the draft process: guys who shoot up the rankings because of their post-season measurements, testing numbers, and bowl game performances, and guys who rise simply because they were less heralded entering the season and it took a while for scouts to get to their film. Armand Membou is both.
Membou is my annual blue ball award winner of the year—a player whom I got wind of just slightly before the masses and got excited about the Niners getting… until he ascended to the point where he’ll almost certainly be off the board before we’re picking. I’m far from an OL expert, but I do understand physics, and the kind of athleticism, foot quickness, and movement skills Membou (right tackle, #79) shows at 332 pounds is not normal:
An excellent athlete who put up a stellar final season in Missouri’s zone-heavy offense, Membou started gathering love around the holidays as scouts got around to his tape. At the time a cuspy first-rounder, Membou vaulted into the top ten after measuring much better than expected and blowing up the combine with a testing performance typically reserved for the Trent Williams’ and Tristan Wirfs’ of the world. Given there are so few guys like them on this planet and even fewer who have multiple solid seasons of college tape to back up their athleticism, Membou will likely be the first OT off the board.
His tape shows a guy with abnormally quick feet and body control who is well-versed in the exact kinds of runs we emphasize in our offense and turned 21 less than a month ago. His height (6’4”) and arm length (33 ½”) are both on the smaller side for a tackle, but it’s not an issue you see on tape, and I do think it’s worth noting that both Rashawn Slater and Penei Sewell–two of the best tackles in football–have shorter arms than Membou. When you have this kind of athletic profile, minor length issues are often overstated. The fit, need, and upside are all slam-dunk matches with what we need, and–potentially–enough to actually make us spend a high pick on an offensive tackle. If he’s still there when we’re picking at 11.
Shades of: Tristan Wirfs / Rashawn Slater
Thumbs Up Emoji
Each of these guys has a solid first-round grade and–with one exception–high professional floors. If we pick any of them, it would be surprising if they weren’t at least a good starter sooner rather than later. But whether it’s due to positional value, team-building philosophy, or our current depth chart, picking any of them this high in the draft presents a potentially complicated value proposition.
5. TE, Tyler Warren, Penn State
6-5.5, 256 lbs.
I’m a big Tyler Warren fan, but #5 on the consensus big board seems a bit misleading. We’re less than a year from Brock Bowers–a generational tight end and the #1 receiving threat on a team that won multiple national championships–going 13th to the Raiders due to positional value. These rankings are meant to determine pure value, not positional, but five still feels high.
That said, I think he goes higher than Bowers did, and I think there’s a better than 50/50 chance he goes before we’re on the board. Even in a deep tight end class, Warren’s size (nearly as big as Gronk), versatility (he rushed for 218 yards and four scores this season…), and unreal production while operating as the only real receiving threat for a team that went deep into the CFP is sure to appeal to many teams. This is a guy who had a higher contested catch rate (61.9% -> 60%) and nearly as many yards per route run (2.78 -> 2.87) as Tet McMillan, a 6-5 jump ball merchant and perhaps the top wideout in this class. Combine that with the relative weakness of the receiver class, and Warren could easily climb into the top ten.
If there are questions about Warren’s game, they’d revolve around his burst and ability to beat man coverage (just because he didn’t face much this season). But the major question with Warren is less about his ability and more about need and positional value. I can’t imagine he does NOT have a first-round grade from our scouts. And if we take a tight end early, I will write a lengthy analysis of how sick it could be for us to reassert our offensive identity by spamming double tight stretch until we’ve buried a dozen alley defenders. But we have three dudes on the roster who can effectively play tight end. We just paid two of them. Would this be the best team-building strategy?
IMO, Warren is unique enough–and the idea of us piloting our run game out of legit 12 personnel intriguing enough–that I’d be onboard with the selection. Even if it means temporarily neglecting some sizable roster holes.
Shades of: The create-a-player Shanahan makes in Madden
6. CB, Will Johnson, Michigan
6-2, 194 lbs.
Big and fluid with great instincts and elite ball skills, Johnson was a five-star recruit and Freshman All-American in 2022 before launching to First Team-All American status as a sophomore and being named the defensive MVP of the National Championship game. He locked down Marvin Harrison Jr in The Game as a true freshman. He totaled nine picks–three returned for touchdowns–in only 32 career games. After his freshman season and his sophomore season, he was tabbed a shoe-in for a top 5 selection in 2025. But his junior year didn’t go as planned.
Johnson missed half the 2024 season dealing with a turf toe injury, then had a hammy flare-up that’s caused him to delay Pro Day testing until days before the draft. While he still put up impressive highlights, he wasn’t nearly as consistent in 2024 under new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, and there was a feeling that he might have been coasting until the draft. He’s a bit of a gambler, and questions have arisen about his catch-up speed, so his testing (which won’t happen until days before the draft) will be critical. Given the high number of missed games, durability is a concern as well. Of the seven prospects in this tier and the one above, Johnson is the most boom-or-bust.
That said… this is a 6’2” 194-pound corner with elite ball skills, whose potential weaknesses (catchup speed, burst) are minimized by our scheme–a scheme that also happens to highlight his greatest strengths (instincts, route recognition, playmaking). It’s hard to watch this tape and not come away thinking of his potential in our defense.
Johnson could quite easily be the best DB in this draft and–eventually–one of the better corners in the NFL. I don’t think we want to take a corner this high in the draft, but–depending on who’s available–Johnson’s overall talent level and scheme fit could be too hard to pass up.
Shades of: Pat Surtain II (with a dash of Derek Stingley’s phoned-in junior year)
10. TE, Colston Loveland, Michigan
6-6, 248 lbs.
Lost in the Tyler Warren hype is the fact that Loveland is right on his heels for the TE1 spot. Warren is savvier, bigger, a better in-line blocker, and more versatile, but Loveland is more explosive, more proven against man coverage, and as good—if not better—at acrobatic catches down the field. A lot of people forgot about him because his 2024 production was wrecked by poor quarterback play and an offense so devoid of other pass catchers that he received an unhealthy 39.6% target share, but this is the rare tight end who is a three-level winner against man coverage and has the size and strength to do it from an in-line position or split-out wide.
There are several big, athletic dudes with high receiving potential in this tight end class, but what separates Loveland from the cluster of guys below him with second-day grades is that he plays bigger and stronger than most of them, he’s already shown he can play with his hand in the ground, and he can win early as well as late against man and zone coverage. A lot of these long, athletic dudes with tantalizing downfield production have issues in the NFL because they can’t win early unless it's on stick routes and play-action dump-offs. They need clean runways and a high density of deep shots to utilize that athleticism, and—at tight end—those opportunities can be hard to manufacture with regularity. Either that or because they just can’t block in-line and actually play tight end (Kyle Pitts). But Loveland can win deep or intermediate or split out wide and shake a dude in space to open up on a slant route. His separation skills pop on tape, and that’s not a sentence you hear often about tight ends. He’s not the Swiss Army Knife Warren is, but he’s got very real Pro Bowl potential in his own right.
Shades of: Dallas Goedert / Sam LaPorta
11. OT/OG, Will Campbell, LSU
6-6, 319 lbs.
As a freshman at LSU, Will Campbell started every game at LT and was a freshman All-American. As a sophomore, he started every game at LT and was first team All-SEC. As a junior, he started every game at LT and was first team All-American. He was a two-year captain and the only offensive lineman in the history of the school to be named the team’s “top playmaker.” This isn’t New Mexico State; this is LSU. This is a team that always has playmakers. He’s also 6’6,” ran a sub 5.0 forty, and tested well in every athletic drill. So why isn’t he ranked higher?
Will Campbell could still be the first offensive lineman off the board, but if he’s not, it’s likely due to his arm length. At tackle, teams want linemen with–ideally–34” arms, with 33” considered the minimum. There are exceptions to this rule, but not many. Of the 67 offensive tackles who played at least 500 snaps this past season, only 9% of them had arm lengths shorter than 33 inches. Campbell’s are 32 ⅝. And while his tape is overall excellent, some of the issues he’s shown–like oversetting against wide alignments and struggles while moving laterally–could be partially attributed to his lack of length. It’s one thing for a measurable to be an outlier. It’s another when that outlier shows up on tape.
To be clear, Campbell will be a good pro–it’s just a matter of where. But while Membou and some other linemen in this class are considered cuspy tackle prospects, Campbell is soundly below most teams’ threshold for tackle length. I personally think you should still at least try him outside. I understand the concerns, but this guy’s athleticism and tape seem to point more towards a “positive outlier” path than the other way around. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if—five years from now—Campbell is excelling and everyone is like “why’d we talk about arm length for so long?” And if it doesn’t work out, your consolation prize is an excellent guard protecting a shorter quarterback. But–given our pickiness at selecting offensive linemen through the years–I can’t imagine we draft Campbell here unless we’re confident he can stick at tackle. It’s hard enough to get us to draft a tackle in the first round. At 11, I can’t imagine we’d want a guard.
Shades of: Honestly… one of those top-flight guards who converted from tackle like Zack Martin or Brandon Scherff.
15. DB, Jahdae Barron, Texas
5-11, 194 lbs.
Once again, defensive back probably isn’t where we wanna go at 11. But it helps when the DB in question can feasibly play all five positions in the secondary. Entering the season, Barron was thought to be “just a nickel,” but he posted career numbers as a fifth-year senior while amassing nearly 700 snaps at outside corner–breaking up 11 passes and picking off another five while allowing a 34.1 opposing QB rating and zero touchdowns. He’s also feisty in the run game.
Barron tested well, with his 4.39 forty and 35” vertical assuaging some concerns about his top-end speed and athleticism, but there are still questions as to how he holds up in man coverage, especially down the field. Luckily, we run as much zone as anyone, and zone is where his instincts, route recognition, and football IQ shine brightest.
We don’t yet know what sort of schematic adjustments Saleh has in store for our defense, but the selection of Barron–another versatile DB to pair with Lenoir and Green–could make for a level of DB interchangeability that we haven’t seen before.
Shades of: Brian Branch with outside corner ability
F*ck It, Why Not?
I’m really stomping on my upcoming defensive end write-up here, but all three guys in this tier are high-variance, upside-play edges. Since it’s a need that fits our team-building philosophy, they should be mentioned as guys who could feasibly hop up a tier on our big board. Are they all first-rounded graded players? Maybe not. But I’m confident all three will be picked somewhere in the first round.
8. DE, Jalon Walker, Georgia
6-1, 243 lbs.
There are two “Micah Parsons-looking” dudes in this draft. One plays for Penn State, wears Micah’s number, and will be gone in the first three picks of the draft. The other is Jalon Walker.
For our purposes, I’m not going to talk about Jalon Walker the linebacker, because if we’re picking him for our scheme at this draft position, he’s playing edge. For each of the past two years, Walker led Georgia in sacks despite playing a grand total of 400 snaps along the defensive line and never totaling more than 200 pass rush snaps in a single season. Naturally, that meant his pass rush efficiency was good, with a 17.2% pass rush win rate (PWR) that ranked just outside the top 50 in the country. He’s a great athlete with an elite first step and seems to have a natural understanding of how to set up blockers to leverage his quickness, but right now he wins mostly with tenacity and tremendous athleticism. Is he a tweener with subpar technique at both positions? Or will he take massive strides forward as a pass rusher when–for the first time ever–he gets to focus on one position?
Then, there’s the size problem. Walker plays hard and is physical, but–at 243 pounds–he’s going to have some problems when teams run at him. If we were a 3-4 defense? I wouldn’t care. His disruptive capabilities and the ability to put him on or off the line mitigate those concerns. But in our defense? After a season of getting gashed on the ground with a clear mandate to improve the run defense? Does Walker even hit our size threshold for a starting defensive end?
All of these questions are valid, and I don’t have the answer for any of them. Walker is a prospect with lots of tools, lots of potential, and a whole helluva lot of projection involved. This is as boom or bust as you get this high in the draft. So why is he even being listed here? Because, despite all those questions, Walker is still–on more boards than not–a top ten talent. If we ran a 3-4 defense, he’d be up there for me as well. The athleticism and the flashes are that good. And his leadership skills and work ethic—lauded throughout the Georgia program—give him a better shot to reach that potential than most. The upside is clear. If he hits and becomes an elite speed rusher opposite Bosa, it’ll blow the absolute roof off our defensive ceiling for the next decade.
Shades of: Diet Micah Parsons
15. DE, Mykel Williams, Georgia
6-5, 260 lbs.
Similar to Will Johnson, Mykel Williams was long presumed to be a top 10 draft pick, but a nagging ankle injury prevented him from taking steps forward as a pass rusher in 2024. Throw in a post-draft process in which he ran a 4.75 forty at his pro day, and he’s likely to be on the board when we’re picking. In Williams’ defense, his game is based less on his burst (which is just average) and more on his build, length, strength, and overall movement skills. He’s got heavy and active hands and plays the game violently, which shows itself regularly in the run game but is seen only in flashes while rushing the passer (4 sacks in two games vs. Texas this year).
His build and those flashes have made many scouts bullish on his trajectory as a pass rusher, but his 11.1% PWR and 26 total pressures hammer home the fact that Williams’ breakthrough–assuming it happens at all–could be further down the road than expected. Given the salary we’ve shed, it would be hard to say we’re in a hurry, and Williams could at least play as a base end until he takes steps forward as a pass rusher, but the spectre of Javon Kinlaw–another big brawler without plus quickness and burst–looms large. I’ll admit, I’m not as high on Williams as everyone else seems to be—maybe because I’ve only seen him play on his bum ankle. But enough people who know what they’re talking about are confident in his trajectory that I’ll put my trust in Kocurek if we end up drafting him.
Shades of: Ezekiel Ansah
16. DE, Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M
6-5, 267 lbs.
If you’re looking for a different flavor of “traits-over-production flyer with developmental upside,” Stewart’s combination of size and athleticism (4.59 forty, 40” vert) is hard to come by. His ten-yard split is faster than Von Miller’s and three one-hundredths of a second slower than Nick Bosa’s. According to his RAS score, which aggregates all testing info and measurements and compares it to historical marks dating back to 1987, Stewart’s combination of size and athleticism is the 3rd-best on record for a defensive end.
He’s big, super long, plays with good power and burst, and was one of PFF’s top-graded run defenders last season. But as a pass rusher, he’s (you guessed it) a project. In each of his three years in college, he tallied exactly 1.5(!) sacks. 4.5 career sacks isn’t exactly bringing the boys to the yard, and I booted up his film expecting to be disappointed. Consider me surprised. Stewart’s far more disruptive than his stats on tape, and his positive underlying metrics and steady improvement are worth noting. Each season, his PFF grades have increased alongside his pressure totals, which went from 14 to 26 to a respectable 39 last season. It’s also worth noting that Stewart’s size means he can eventually play inside snaps on passing downs and be a key component of the twist games that made guys like Arden Key and Charles Omenihu so valuable in our rotation.
Stewart could be a notch further developed than people think, but—even if he is—he’ll take some time to develop. For all his flashes on tape, he got stonewalled by top pass blockers like Campbell and Membou, and his pressures fell off a cliff to end the season. But like Williams above him, his play against the run is pro-ready, giving him some runway to figure things out as a pass rusher.
Shades of: Danielle Hunter
Patience Is a Virtue
The last four guys on this list all share two things in common: (1) they’re linemen, and (2) there’s considerable debate on how many of them will go in the first round versus the second. Given that, there could be some opportunity cost lost in picking any of them at 11. Some I like more than others, but if we’re getting any of them, it would preferably be after a trade down. Or, better yet, in the second round. So why are they here? Because they’ve been mock drafted to us enough that I figure they’re all at least worth mentioning.
18. OT, Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas
6-5, 315 lbs.
A three-year starter who steadily ascended from Freshman All-American to First-Team All-Big 12 to First-Team All-American, Banks is a good athlete with a lot of starting experience, whose film and counting stats (pressures allowed, pressure %) were impressive enough for him to win the Outland Trophy this season. On paper, his resume is just as strong as Will Campbell's. But while all the pieces are there, I don’t feel like Banks’ tape always matches the hype. He struggles too much in the second stage of blocks and winds up on the ground far too often because of it. While the athleticism is there, his foot speed and activity don’t always match it. And despite having the same arm length as Membou, Banks seems to lean out of his frame and get overextended in a way where he becomes susceptible to late rep losses and push-pull maneuvers.
To be fair, Membou is a better athlete, but he also seems to play more to his strengths and away from his weaknesses. He knows his length is a notch below ideal, so he keeps his feet moving and gets to his spots before defenders can take advantage of it. That doesn’t always seem to be the case with Banks, which is a bit worrisome given he’s started three straight years at left tackle. Perhaps the uptick in competition will get him to clean things up. Or perhaps this is just a flaw in his game. That said, if you told me we were getting Banks at guard, I would be thrilled. He brings a ton of power and physicality in the run game, is adept at blocking in space and climbing to the second level (despite sometimes slower feet), and many of the concerns he has outside are minimized if he is bumped down to guard. But that’s a steep price at 11.
Shades of: Peter Skoronski
22. Walter Nolen, Ole Miss
6-4, 296 lbs.
A former No.1 overall high school recruit, Nolen is big and strong and has the explosive first step to cause havoc in our scheme. He’s a high-effort guy with good overall movement skills, great power, and the size and athletic profile to project to post-season accolades down the road. But there are inefficiencies in his game.
At the moment, Nolen wins early but not late. He relies too much on beating his blocker to the spot or powering through them, and when he doesn’t win quickly, he can get into issues with his pad level and disengagement skills. Granted, he wins quickly a lot, and he has some moves to help get him there (which bodes well for the future). But one of the hardest things to predict in d-line development is whether or not a player can–in the heat of a game–formulate and execute a pass rush plan when he doesn’t win right off the bat. It’s those secondary moves, and the fluidity and savvy to move smoothly through them, that will likely determine whether Nolen hits his considerable ceiling as a pro.
The fit makes a lot of sense, which is probably why Nolen gets mock drafted to us so often. But there’s plenty of debate on how far along he is, which is probably why—in those same mocks—Nolen is equally likely to go to us in the first or second round. 11 seems a bit early. 43 seems optimistic. But if the Niners like how he’s wired, he’s a nice blend of potential and need.
Shades of: Ed Oliver
25. OT, Josh Simmons, Ohio State
6-5, 317 lbs.
A loose and athletic tackle who took a big step forward this season, Simmons was on a potential path to OT1 status before a knee injury derailed his season. While he dominated in the early season, it was mostly in blowouts against lesser competition (although he did stonewall Mike Green of Marshall), so there’s some question over how he would have held up against the meat of the schedule. But those are theoreticals beyond Simmons’ control. He’s a bit more positional than powerful and could use added strength across his game, but he’s a really good athlete who moves well in the box or out in space and was rapidly ascending before his injury. I’m probably a shade higher on him than most, but–if the medicals check out–the fit and upside are nice. As is the potential value of a long-term tackle taken outside the top ten.
Shades of: Christian Darrisaw
27. DT, Derrick Harmon, Oregon
6-4.5, 313 lbs.
After the Niners sent a massive contingent to Oregon’s pro day and had dinner with HC Dan Lanning afterward, I would be SHOCKED if we don’t draft an Oregon Duck this year. The way Lynch talked about Lanning resembled the way we’ve talked about “insider” connections in the past—guys whose brains we’ve picked to get a clearer picture on prospects of interest. Herm Edwards vouching for Brandon Aiyuk’s athleticism comes to mind. The Notre Dame OL coach leading us to Mike McGlinchey and Aaron Banks is another example. And of the Ducks, Harmon is the highest touted.
Harmon’s pass rush figures are staggering. Per PFF, Mason Graham had 34 pressures and a 13.9% pass rush win rate (PWR). Walter Nolen had 35 pressures and a 10.9% PWR. Harmon tallied a whopping 55(!) pressures and a 17.9% PWR. That’s 11 more hurries than any other DT in FBS and tied for 12th-best in the country with first-round edge prospect James Pearce Jr. There wasn’t a more disruptive interior lineman in the country. Then he went to the combine and measured in at 6’4.5 and 313 pounds with long 34 ⅜” arms and ran a sub 5.0 forty. So why isn’t he a top 10 lock?
The questions mainly lie in his finishing ability. You’d prefer 55 pressures to result in more than 12 QB hits and 5 sacks. By comparison, potential No.1 overall Abdul Carter’s 66 pressures resulted in 23 QB hits and 13 sacks. It would be one thing if this felt like a statistical aberration, but Harmon’s lack of finish can be tied to some physical limitations. He’s high-cut, with a lot of his weight in the upper half, which makes his hips a bit stiff, and he sometimes gets reckless in his pass rush, giving up rush lanes. He’s also quick laterally but not supremely explosive off the line. So while his strength and slipperiness and hand usage will get him into NFL backfields, he feels destined to miss some sacks once he does. That points more to a guy who causes havoc (potentially quite a lot of it) as part of a swarming pass rush but may never be a consistent sack man.
To be clear, that’s not the worst thing in the world, and the fact that Harmon is strong anchoring against the run and can take on double teams gives him a level of two-way ability that many prospects lack–even if his personal sack numbers may not be stellar. We often tout how there are good missed tackles and bad missed tackles. If Harmon is a catalyst of the good kind–aggressively forcing quarterbacks and ballcarriers into help defenders who can clean things up–that’s still valuable. But I can’t tell if our scheme is a good fit or if he’d be best as a movable piece and pass rush enabler in a scheme that sends extra rushers from unexpected places.
Shades of: DaQuan Jones
TRADE THEORETICALS
Let’s operate under the very safe assumption that Cam Ward, Abdul Carter, and Travis Hunter all go in the top ten. That would give us a highly likely chance of at least one of the seven guys in our two highest tiers being available at 11. But unless someone from the top tier falls to us, we should think hard about trading down. While there are likely to be good players on the board at 11, the meat of this draft class feels clustered more towards the second day, and a trade down would likely net additional selections in the second or third round to take advantage of that.
So what could a trade down look like? It mostly comes down to who is still on the board once we’re on the clock and how much urgency we can stoke for our specific draft slot–urgency that comes from the needs of the teams right behind us, overall positional value, and the number of potential bidders on a specific player.
For instance, EDGE RUSHERS are always in high demand, and–at 11–we could feasibly gift someone Jalon Walker, Shemar Stewart, Mykel Williams, or Mike Green. Let’s say the Bengals, who are in a contract stand-off with Trey Hendrickson, want to move up for an edge. They could pitch a trade that looks like this:
Bengals receive: 11th pick
49ers receive: 17th pick, 81st pick (3rd round), and 153rd pick (5th round)
CORNERBACKS can also drive demand, especially ones with feasible CB1 chops. If Will Johnson falls to us, suitors are likely. If the Packers are looking for an aggressive move into the post-Jaire Alexander era, they could offer something like this:
Packers receive: 11th pick
49ers receive: 23rd, 54th (2nd round), and 2026 fourth-rounder
Falling QUARTERBACKS often lead to trades, so what if Shedeur Sanders gets to us at 11? The positional value is obvious: quarterbacks. But the rest of the equation is murky. The majority of teams in need of a QB would have already passed on Sanders in the top ten, meaning fewer suitors for his talents and less urgency for someone to move up to 11 when they could wait a few spots and give up less to obtain him later. But assuming there’s a bidding war involving future firsts (or at least, the thought of one), the Steelers could offer this:
Steelers receive: 11th pick
49ers receive: 21st pick, 52nd (3rd round), and a 2026 second-rounder
The Cowboys pick one slot after us, so if we’re looking at their roster holes as a means to drive demand for our pick, their need for a second wide receiver has existed for the better part of the last decade. Let’s say the Chargers want to give Herbert a TRUE NO.1 WR with Tet McMillan (or Harbaugh wants to reunite with TE Colston Loveland). They could offer something like this:
Chargers receive: 11th pick
49ers receive: 22nd pick, 55th (2nd round), and 199th (6th round)
But of all the potential trades, a move up for ASHTON JEANTY hits the most marks. Everyone in the league has him as a first-round pick, so demand is there. The Cowboys have a desperate and public need for a running back one spot behind us, boosting urgency for our specific draft slot. The Broncos need to add talent around Bo Nix and surely aren’t entering the season with Jaleel McLaughlin as their only running back. Sean Payton knows the value of a running back who is a threat on the ground and through the air. They could pitch something like this:
Broncos receive: 11th pick and potential Day 3 pick (late 4th or later)
49ers receive: 20th pick, 51st (2nd round)
Of course, this is all strictly academic, but it does point to the many trade-down options that could be on the table at 11 and the value we could gain by jumping down a few spots. In this class, an extra second could easily net a starting defensive tackle or cornerback. An extra third could get us a starting linebacker, a rotational end with future starter chops, or one of any number of high upside fliers. There are a few guys I’d be thrilled to get at 11 and many others who I’d be happy with, but if we really want to start a youth movement, trading down could end up our best option.
Next up, we’ll go position-by-position to look at guys we might pick in the later rounds of the draft.
Go Niners 🏈👍
New Team, Who Dis?
🥲
Remember when I said we wouldn’t be spending much in free agency? Well… that was an understatement.
On the first day of free agency in an off-season that had long been earmarked for change, the Niners made history. Just not the kind you celebrate. With our unsigned and released players garnering a combined $321 million in new contracts and the new deals we gave out totaling… $37 million, our $284 million spending deficit was the greatest in NFL history.
Woof.
Dre. Deebo. Huf. Ward. This was a likable crop of guys who made some of the biggest plays of the current era–plays that will forever be seared into our memories. If this is the end of our run of contention, then March 10th, 20225 will mark a sad curtain call on a group of players and team who got so close but never made it over the hump. But if there’s solace to be had in what transpired at the top of this month, it’s that this does not have to be the end of our run. In fact, how we approached this off-season was (mostly) indicative of a team that wants to reload and retool as quickly as possible and is willing to take some lumps to do so. Or… we’ve become cheap bitches overnight. But it’s far too early to make that assumption.
In a vacuum, the large majority of deals and departures made sense. I don’t wanna pay Hufanga $15M/yr. I certainly don’t want to pay Jaylon Moore $15M/yr. But before I get into what our current depth chart looks like as we approach the draft, I do want to look at three specific departures that raised eyebrows and gave us plenty of information about how we’re approaching the next few years.
First off, let’s look at the rapid dissolution of our defensive line. We all knew Hargrave was on his way out, but the releases of Leonard Floyd and Maliek Collins signaled a clear shift in this off-season’s philosophy. Both of these guys were on reasonable veteran deals. Both would be past 30 by next season. Neither were earmarked for our team come 2026, so we let go of them now. This is the “tear the bandaid off” approach. Floyd’s multiple void years would have resulted in a dead cap hit next season when his contract lapsed, so we’re getting that out of the way now to get more space next year. Collins… well, we aren’t really saving jack by letting him go.
This is the clearest indicator that we’re not only going young but also clearing out the cap space and snaps to ensure we HAVE to play the young guys we bring in. With both Floyd and Collins seen as one-year players, we moved on from them so that their snaps could go to guys like Evan Anderson and Sam O. and the–likely many–defensive linemen we’re going to add in this year’s draft.
There will be some tough days during this process. Potentially quite a few. But the goal is for this overhaul to result in a defensive line that is sustainable with multiple cost-controlled pieces–rather than one that constantly relies on veterans on short-term deals. We’ve talked in the past about how important defensive line sustainability is in running this kind of defense. This is the first step (of many) towards trying to rebuild the DL pipeline that carried our defense for years.
But I am going to point out one move that was more of a head-scratcher. In what is likely my last (and most futile) attempt to stump for Dre Greenlaw, we let him go to the Broncos on a 3-year/$31.5M pact. This deal, which includes $13.5M guaranteed, has zero void years, allows for an out after one season that would only cost $4M in dead cap space, and has a $10.5M AAV that ranks 29th among linebackers and 9th among inside linebackers (as 3-4 rush ends typically dominate the LB market). This is a reasonable deal for a 27-year-old locker room fixture with a team-friendly exit hatch after one year if he never returns to his previous form. We could have easily matched this, and reports have come in that we tried to do just that after he soft-committed to the Broncos.
People like to talk about sports as the ultimate “results-based” industry. It all comes down to wins and losses. But while binary “success” metrics are easier to come by in the sporting world, this industry, like every other one, still comes down to the process. You may win. You may lose. You may benefit or be the victim of good or bad luck. But the process is what dictates consistency. It’s the surest and most controllable variable towards sustained success. The Niners know more about Dre’s medicals than anyone. Certainly more than me. But there shouldn’t be any situation where a priority free agent walks and then we later try to pull him back by matching or besting the contract. This feels like lowball negotiations gone awry or management indecisiveness, or both. This feels like bad process. And if this becomes a trend in how we negotiate our contracts and determine player value, that could spell trouble.
Regardless, the Niners’ goals for the 2025 season and beyond are quite clear. This is an overt attempt to pull off the “remodel, not rebuild” strategy that the Rams accomplished back in 2022, when–coming off a disappointing season just one year removed from a Super Bowl–they jettisoned a ton of veteran starters, played a bunch of rookies, and swallowed a fat dead cap hit into a season in which they hit their stride late en route to a 10-7 record. The Niners hope to pull off something similar while setting us up for another era of success. On paper, that’s certainly possible.
High dead cap figures are far from a death knell in the NFL. The Broncos finished 2024 with $90M in dead cap but made the playoffs. The Bucs, Rams, and Packers were 1st, 2nd, and 4th in dead cap the year before that. All three made the playoffs. When healthy, the Niners–with a league-leading $87M in dead cap–have a better core than any of those teams did. We’ve got the best tight end and off-ball linebacker in football, top 5 performers at DE, OT, and RB, young players at QB and WR who were All-Pros just a year ago, a thoroughly impressive rising sophomore class, and–at the moment–11 picks in both of the next two drafts.
Remember, this is not the NBA. This is not the MLB. With 53-man rosters, 11 men on the field at all times, a single elimination playoff, and an oblong ball that is thrown, kicked, and handled outside in the winter, contender status in the NFL isn’t as binary as the other major American pro sports. Contention windows open and close more quickly, but they can also be pried open indefinitely if you play your cards right. While the top of this month was bleak, we could be back to contender status in no time. But that starts with the draft. It can’t be like the horrid 2022 and 2023 classes. It’s gotta be like 2024.
We need another banger.
NEEDS (there are more now!)
Quarterback: Purdy’s new deal will be a litmus test for our management teams’ ability to rebound after feeling snake-bitten by their deals a year ago. Mac Jones is a solid addition as a backup. Just cause I hated him at No.3 years ago, doesn’t mean I don’t love him as a backup on the cheap. We are probably cool with Tanner Mordecai as our third, but—if not—don’t be surprised if we take someone with multiple years as a college starter super late in the draft or pick someone up once the draft concludes.
Running Back: As expected after we gave him a second-round RFA tender, Jordan Mason was flipped to the Vikings for a 2026 6th-rounder and a 27-spot jump from the sixth to the fifth round come April. The Niners are now poised to draft a running back somewhere in the middle-to-late rounds of a loaded draft class. Ironically, given our penchant for drafting RBs too high, this is the rare class where drafting an RB in the third might actually make sense. I’m not saying I want us to do that, but there could be talented backs who slip.
Tight End: Luke Farrell was brought in from the Jags on a 3-yr deal worth $16M, with a contract structure that means he’ll never make more than a maximum of 1.28% of our cap space. Farrell is a very talented pass blocker, and the Niners must like his movement skills enough to believe he’ll be a strong run blocker as well. But the return of Juice muddies the picture a bit. At the moment, Farrell’s signing loses us a fifth-round comp pick next year. That cost could be defensible if we knew he was about to get major snaps as TE2 and FB. But with Juice back in the building and the team likely to draft a tight end in a deep and versatile class, will Farrell’s one-dimensional ability (he’s totaled 36 grabs over 66 games) be worth that draft capital? Or will be prove redundant/block valuable development time from a rookie? This is the deepest tight end class I’ve seen in years, we love heavy sets, and Kittle will turn 32 next year. I still expect us to draft a tight end. But if we’re talking about clearing out space for rookies to get major snaps, this is one of the few positions where that could be difficult.
Wide Receiver: Our other “big” add in free agency was Demarcus Robinson from the Rams. He’s a Chris Conley replacement with a higher ceiling. He’s got decent size and good vertical ability–even if he didn’t test well out of college–but has more versatility, upside, and production than Conley at this point in his career. The fit is strong, but questions remain around his DUI stoppage last year, how that reflects on his overall decision-making and locker room fit, and whether or not he’ll even be available (due to potential suspension) to start while Aiyuk heals up early in the year. With Aiyuk’s long-term standing in question, we’ll be in the market if an appropriate fit comes along. But it’s not a priority.
Offensive Tackle: Trent and McKivitz return, but Trent missed a lot of games last year and doesn’t have much time left. While McKivitz improved but may be a more natural fit inside at guard. This is not an incredible tackle class, but we’ll certainly be doing our homework in the early rounds. We’ve already had confirmed interviews with four of the top five OT prospects in the class—with four of those legitimate options when we pick in the first round.
Offensive Guard: Puni has quickly become a mainstay, whether he sticks on the right or is moved to the left beside Trent. The second guard spot will probably be up for grabs in training camp, with Ben Bartch competing with any potential rookies and/or Spencer Burford–unless the team wants to keep him as a swing tackle/guard. With several tweener G/T’s in this draft, plugging in a rookie next to McKivitiz with the idea that they could eventually push outside is a possibility.
Center: Jake Brendel returns, and with free agency mostly in the rearview, the best chance we have to unseat him is probably Matt Hennessy–who we added from the Falcons’ practice squad late last year. Hennessy is a highly proven run blocker who started 20 games between 2021-22 at center, registering top 5 run blocking rates in both seasons. But he missed nearly two entire seasons due to injury and hasn’t played much since. He’s a scheme fit with legitimate upside and probably our best chance to unset Brendel. Drake Nugent also lingers in the background. With the new youth (by default) movement, perhaps a rookie starter is possible. But I’ll believe it when I see it.
Defensive End: Nick Bosa reigns supreme, but there are questions as to whether or not we have another starter on the roster. Sam Okuayinonu has potential but ran into the mid-to-late season wall we all kind of expected after his hot start last season. He should be better prepared for more snaps this year, but there’s a chance we just like him more as a member of the Bravo unit. Yetur Gross-Matos also returns. He showed some nice inside-out ability in his short run with us last year. He’s a guy with the athletic profile and flashes to be a starter (or super sub) but lacks consistency in a big way. We’ll be in the market to add (at least) another body in the draft, but getting an instant impact guy will be easier said than done.
Defensive Tackle: If defensive end features only one solidified starter, defensive tackle almost certainly has zero. Jordan Elliott could theoretically be paired with a rookie gap-shooter at the three-tech, but it’s not ideal. Givens is a good rotational piece, but not a starter. And the staff certainly wants Evan Anderson to push for a starter(ish) role, but that’s far from certain, and–even if he does force his way into more snaps–he’d likely be eating into Elliott’s playing time rather than pairing beside him as both are traditional nose tackles. Defensive tackle is the strongest and deepest position in this draft class. While the need for a one-gapper is much more dire, there are plenty of options for both types of bodies. If we don’t pick at least two defensive tackles this draft, with at least one coming in our top three picks, I’d be shocked.
Linebacker: Fred Warner will man the middle and should benefit greatly from the time off to heal the broken bone in his ankle that he played three months on last year. He was a different player in the first month of the season. Dee Winters will get the first crack at taking over Dre Greenlaw’s vacated spot. He’s got the will, the speed, and the coverage ability to excel there, but he’s been hit-or-miss against the run and has struggled to stay healthy. It’ll be a tall task to replace Greenlaw’s fire and emotional impact, but I expect us to try by taking a linebacker somewhere in the mid-to-late rounds. There are several speedy undersized types and converted safeties in this class who may fit our mold. How ready may they be to play right away? That remains to be seen.
Cornerback: With Ward gone, we need another starter on the outside. Or the inside, if we find a better fit and decide to move DeMo to the boundary. I don’t know if our solution is on the roster already, but I don’t expect this to be a premium need. Spending a high pick on the position doesn’t seem to be our preference, and we can likely get by with a late add veteran if need be. The one way this changes is if someone with genuinely elite traits falls. Will Johnson of Michigan is the name to watch here, but depending on how the draft shakes out, there could also be a value play at this position at the top of the second. Cornerback feels like a big wildcard position this year in that we have bigger needs but could get the best value by picking one earlier than we’d prefer.
Safety: I think we’re pretty set here. Mustapha is entrenched as our strong safety, while the Niners quietly added two veterans in Richie Grant and Jason Pinnock, who’ve started a combined 70 games across the past three years. They’ll compete with Ji’Ayir Brown to hold down the free safety spot. We’ve gotten great value from low-cost vets at this position in the past, and my guess is that’s the plan this time as well.
Kicker/Punter: My favorite text from a friend amid our free agent purge read “Interesting that Jake Moody hasn’t been dragged out into the parking lot and given the Old Yeller treatment.” We’ll add competition for Moody. Hopefully, that’s from a veteran leg or an undrafted rookie, or–if we have to–someone taken in the 6th or 7th round. Mitch’s job isn’t quite safe either. Regardless, we won’t get clarity until we get through the inevitable kicker competitions in training camp. Just please god no more specialists taken before the last rounds.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Free Agent Preview
Signing cool guys would be pretty cool
We won’t be signing any of these guys but the graphic looked cool
With the Niners moving on from Hargrave and Deebo and the (annual?) re-appearance of Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors, there’s been some internet consternation on whether or not the Niners are trying to cut salary and reassess their big-spending ways. The incoming Brock Purdy deal will tell us a lot, but I wouldn’t worry about an NBA-style belt tightening quite yet. This seems more like the natural flow of going all-in on a Super Bowl window with a good QB on a rookie deal and then having to fix the books once he starts to get paid.
On a case-by-case basis, Hargrave simply wasn’t worth his contract, a 2025 Deebo departure was something that was penciled in as a possibility as far back as 2022, and—while an Aiyuk trade could theoretically materialize for the right price—I doubt we get that price after his worst season in the NFL was cut short by a major knee injury. No sense getting into the nitty gritty of Aiyuk’s contract during a free agency write-up, but if Aiyuk is getting moved it’s more likely to happen in 2026—when his would-be dead cap hit plummets and he either has or has not regained his trade value.
Aiyuk is an important figure in all this because I think his contract negotiations last year were as annoying for the front office as they were for us as fans. I think the Niners were ready to ship him out for a 2nd and 3rd-round pick but folded last second because we felt we had to be all-in while on Purdy’s rookie deal. And I think his final price tag—which came in higher than most of us expected it would—was the cherry on top for an off-season in which the Niners extended three players to lucrative deals and effectively lost all three of those negotiations. Injuries are a part of the game, and you wanna spend good money on good players. But losing negotiations isn’t the way to win games long-term, and I think the Niners have felt that. Deebo and Hargrave were just not worth their contracts. Now they’re out. Aiyuk—so far—hasn’t been worth his. So now he’s put on notice. All this to say, I don’t think we’re seeing a philosophical shift toward the “acceptable mediocrity” that so many mid-market NBA teams seem to pursue. But I do think the front office is rightfully—and intelligently—trying to keep us in contention as we move out of the all-in stage. And to do that, we need a financially sustainable blueprint.
So what does that look like? I still think we’ll be active in free agency but with a greater lean on quality investments on mid-tier and upside plays and less big game hunting. Think of this as an off-season where we get younger and balance the books. 11 draft picks will help on the youth front. While pragmatic spending in free agency will go a long way toward making sure we’re a perennial contender and not just a team that pushed its chips in while we had a QB on a rookie deal. Teams in the NFL can continue to spend and contend as long as they’re constantly bringing in talented rookies. If we knock this draft out of the park like last year, we could be back to big spending in no time. But for now, think of this off-season as a recalibration as we figure out what that looks like while building around Purdy.
A few bullet points before we get into the giant block of potential free agents.
I grouped players into general clusters of Bidding War, Multiple Suitors, Bargain Buys, and Deep Dives. Those clusters are based more on what I expect their market to be versus how good a player/fit they may be. Their listed order is just last name alphabetical.
I think we add a RB and TE this off-season, but I think it’ll be in the draft. So I didn’t include either position.
After initial cuts are made, there could be a lot of veteran wideouts available this off-season. I only included a few because those cuts are currently speculative and because I think–overall–our approach to the receiver room will be developing youth versus spending on big veteran deals.
PFF is far from perfect but I’ll be referencing their grades a lot because even I can’t watch THAT much football
I asterisked(*) guys in each category who feel like particularly good/intriguing fits
BIDDING WAR
*C, Drew Dalman, Falcons: For the past two years, Dalman’s been one of PFF’s top 5 centers, and while his pass protection could use some work, he’s widely regarded as one of the best run blockers at the position–especially in the stretch scheme that we employ. While there are viable center prospects in this draft, it’s hard to imagine Shanahan starting a rookie at the position, so our best chance to upgrade Brendel may have to come in free agency. Even if he wouldn’t shore up all our pass pro issues, Dalman’s fit seems ideal, but the demand for his services will be substantial. Thus, the cost could prove untenable.
That said, this is probably the one guy in this tier I’d say we have a decent chance of acquiring if we pursue him–mainly due to the appeal of playing under Shanahan and the fact that even top-market centers don’t get paid much compared to other positions. It is worth noting that ankle injuries have limited him in the past two years—including a stint on the IR in 2024. After getting burned by Weston Richburg’s health (or lack thereof), the medical checks would have to come back clean.
DE, Malcolm Koonce, Raiders: Koonce seemed poised for a contract year breakout after registering a top 25 PFF grade alongside 8 sacks and 17 QB hits a year ago, but a knee injury during practice forced him to miss the entirety of the 2024 season. If his medicals are right, he could wind up quite the steal. But we won’t be the only ones thinking of that.
DE, Khalil Mack, Chargers: While he turns 34 this week, Mack is still a beast on the edge, finishing 6th and 5th in PFF’s edge rusher ratings the past two seasons while accumulating 23 sacks and 37 QB hits. While his 2023 raw numbers had a bit of fool’s gold in them–17 sacks on 22 QB hits is not sustainable–he was a genuine two-way player over that span and he could be seen as the “missing piece” to a defense the same way an aging Von Miller was courted by the Rams (2021) and Bills (2022).
But determining a potential price tag is complicated. Miller was a year and a half younger than Mack is now when he put up 9 sacks (4 in the playoffs) over 12 games while helping lead the Rams to a Super Bowl. He then signed a monstrous 6-yr/$120M deal with the Bills. Mack’s age and lesser recent production (only 6 sacks in 2024) likely won’t net him that kind of contract, but–in today’s cap–a shorter deal worth over $20M/yr still seems plausible. That’s not outrageous, but it’s a steep price to pay for a 34-year-old when we’re trying to get younger and more cost-controlled. It’s possible–and I do think Mack would be a sizeable upgrade over Leonard Floyd–but it feels like his market may explode when contender cuspy teams like the Commanders start entering the bidding.
CB, DJ Reed, Jets: The one that got away. The fit and familiarity are undeniable, but Reed could wind up the highest-paid corner in this class, making a reunion highly unlikely.
*DT, Milton Williams, Eagles: Looking for a Javon Hargrave replacement? Why not the exact same dude but two years younger? A bit off the nationwide radar as part of a deep DL rotation, Williams dominated the Super Bowl, and he’ll get paid accordingly. Great fit, but his performance on the national stage may have priced him out of our range, and there are concerns with his run defense and the fact that he topped out at only 10 QB hits this season (albeit as part of a deep rotation). At a lower expected price tag, I wouldn’t care about those hesitations. But if he starts approaching $20M/yr territory, they’re at least worth mentioning.
MULTIPLE SUITORS
OL, Mekhi Becton, Eagles: He’s up here due to upside, positional value, and the absolute dearth of tackle options in free agency. But there are more questions with Becton than most guys in this tier. A former first-round pick by the Jets who–for a few games–looked like a Pro Bowl fixture at left tackle, Becton’s career was absolutely ravaged by injuries. After finishing out his rookie deal, he signed a one-year pact with the Eagles where he started at guard and played mostly every game. The injury concerns are scary. And he was more a cog in the machine than a superstar along the Eagles’ loaded offensive line. He’s a big swing, and–personally–I’d rather draft a dude. But at least Saleh can vouch for his character from their time in NY.
WR, Amari Cooper, Bills: Cooper was a nonfactor after he got traded to the Bills, which is not a great look given the Bills’ receiver room. He’ll turn 31 before next season, he’s lost a step, and there’s a chance he’s just washed. But it was also a poor fit. The Bills’ offense is about horizontal and vertical stretches, giving up well-rounded ability for guys who can out-leverage defenders on shoot routes, crossers, and deep balls. This lets them take advantage of Josh Allen’s ability to put the ball anywhere at any time and–when the defense stretches itself thin enough to cover all these guys–rely on his size and speed to power the ball up the middle himself.
If Cooper has starter-level play left, he’d have a better chance of showing it in a scheme like ours, where he could use his high-level route-running skills and intermediate ability (he’s scored no worse than 91.7 on routes run 10-19 yards downfield for all ten years of his NFL career) to get open on drifts and sit routes. His short-area play has been up-and-down at times (last year = down) and drops will always be an issue. Also, I’m hesitant to add any wideout who could potentially block Ricky Pearsall’s development. But if we’re looking for someone to start early in the season and then step back into a lesser role once Aiyuk is fully healthy, Cooper could be a good fit. But–like Becton above–I would only be interested if his price point slipped down into the tier below.
CB, Mike Hilton, Bengals: Most Cincinnati fans would probably describe Hilton as a player on the decline, but the long-time elite nickel corner finished the season strong in an effort to prove that he’s still got some tread left on his tires. Long one of the league’s better nickel corners, Hilton was PFF’s 15th-best corner in this down year. If we think he’s still got some run in him and want a veteran presence (at a cheapish price), we could do worse.
CB, Nate Hobbs, Raiders: Another nickel candidate, Hobbs was a stud manning the slot as a rookie, finishing the 2021 season as PFF’s #5 corner. But 2021 was a long time ago, especially given the lengthy string of injuries he’s faced in the past three years. Given his outside corner-like size (6-1 195 lbs.), he can mix it up in the run game and as a blitzer, but injuries are a lingering concern.
OG, Teven Jenkins, Bears: Jenkins has been a PFF Top 20 guard in each of the past three years—peaking at OG3 back in 2022—but availability has been an issue. While young and talented, he’s never played more than 14 games in a single season. That’s tolerable for some positions but can be quite difficult along the OL because linemen never come off the field and so few teams have viable backups. But at the right price? Certainly intriguing.
*DT, Osa Odighizuwa, Cowboys: In four years of (mostly) starting, Osa peaked at 4.5 sacks this season, but the underlying numbers point to much greater potential. His PFF scores are regularly strong, his 23 QB hits this season project closer to double-digit sacks, and–while the breakout hasn’t happened–his athletic traits and flashes fit our scheme like a glove. Like any free agent Cowboy defensive lineman, there’s work to be done against the run, but perhaps Dallas’ down year defensively can help us secure a dude on a multi-year deal who’s on the cusp of a breakthrough.
UPDATE = SIGNED 4-YR EXTENSION WITH COWBOYS
DT, Levi Onwuzurike, Lions: One of the last men standing on Detroit’s injury-ravaged defensive line, Onwuzurike’s 12.5% pass rush win rate this season was top 15 among DTs despite constantly dwindling talent around him. Somewhat ironically, injuries are a bit of a concern in his scouting report–having missed the entire 2022 season due to his back–but with Alim McNeil just extended at the same position, there’s a chance Levi hits the open market as an underrated gem.
*LB, Jamien Sherwood, Jets: At a listed 216 pounds, Sherwood is a large lunch bigger than most safeties, which makes some sense because he played that position in college. But his lack of size didn’t stop him from putting up career numbers after breaking into the starting lineup this season. Our affinity for converted safeties and the linebacker position is well known, and if Greenlaw departs, a plug-and-play starter is necessary. Besides, Saleh will know him better than anyone.
You’ll note there are only two linebackers on this entire list. This is actually a pretty good crop of veteran linebackers, but—unfortunately for us—most are either long in the tooth (Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David) or bad scheme fits (Nick Bolton, Robert Spillane). This points to few starting options for our scheme and even fewer long-term replacements if Dre Greenlaw departs in free agency.
BARGAIN BUYS
CB, Paulson Adebo, Saints: The Niners love their Stanford guys, and Adebo–who was PFF’s 15th-best corner a year ago–could be had on the cheap after a broken femur derailed his ascension into free agency. With 7 picks and 28 pass deflections across his past 22 games, Adebo has some ballhawk in him. Given the injury–and recovery timeline–he feels destined for a one-year prove-it deal somewhere. If we don’t want to draft a starting corner or hang our hats on Darrell Luter’s development and health, kicking the can down the road a year isn’t a terrible idea.
DE, Derek Barnett, Texans: You may be surprised to hear that Barnett is still in the league. You may also be surprised to hear that he doesn’t turn 29 until after the draft. But the oldest 28-year-old in the NFL has quietly put together a pretty good two-season stretch with the Texans while manning the second unit behind their star defensive ends. He’s not a starter and his injury history is extensive, but he’s an established and reliable rotational player on the edge.
DE, Baron Browning, Cardinals: A trade deadline throwback, Browning made the move from hyper-athletic linebacker to freaky athletic defensive end back in 2022, and promptly posted a top 25 pressure rate over the next two years. But he’s been hampered by injuries ever since. There’s untapped potential here but also a lingering neck injury that requires HEAVY evaluation.
OG, James Daniels, Steelers: A consistent but unspectacular long-time starter, Daniels was playing easily the best football of his life before blowing out his Achilles in week 4. Seven years into his NFL career, it’s hard to say if Daniels’ September surge was a late-stage breakthrough or simply a product of variance that was destined to regress to the mean. But if he can recover from his injury, a 27-year-old multi-year starter at guard is worth something regardless.
DT, Poona Ford, Chargers: Ford had quite a run in Seattle but looked washed for two straight years before a 2024 resurgence (PFF DT5) under Jim Harbaugh and Mike Minter. He’s an undersized gap shooter with scheme experience (kind of) from his time with the Seahawks.
*DT, DJ Jones, Broncos: Our guy DJ never put it together as a pass rusher, failing to eclipse 4(!) QB hits in any given season, but his pass rush impact was always a notch better than his numbers would indicate, and he’s still a force against the run. He may not be the player he was when he left us three years ago, but he was always a better fit in our scheme than Denver’s. Given the need, a reunion seems possible.
LB, Eric Kendricks, Cowboys: Try again this year?
*DE, Dayo Odeyingbo, Colts: One of the best athletes in the 2021 draft class, Dayo went down to an Achilles injury in a pre-draft workout, which slowed his development. However, he’s peaking at the right time, playing in all 17 games each of the past three seasons and securing 17 QB hits in both of the past two—that’s more QB hits than any Non-Bosa Niner has registered since Arden Key in 2021. He’s young and could be poised for a breakout season, a combination that teams typically covet, so I’m a little surprised I haven’t heard more about him this off-season. Perhaps I’m vastly underestimating his market, but I’d happily take a swing on him—even at a price a tier above this one.
DE, Azeez Ojulari, Giants: Ojulari, who was also featured in my trade deadline writeup, is an interesting prospect. His athletic skills are excellent and his raw numbers–given limited snaps–are quite good, with six sacks this past year and 22 over his first four years in the league. But his advanced stats don’t back up those numbers, his size (240 pounds) is a question mark as a true edge, and you wonder why he never made more of an impact in New York. Cause, you know, they suck. This is a case where you gotta trust your scouting department and make sure the price is right, as he seems equally likely to break out or get buried on a depth chart on a multi-year deal.
DT, Jarran Reed, Seahawks: When we’re talking about still-talented but older guys whose value could get pushed down by a plethora of interior defenders in both free agency and the draft, we’re functionally talking about Jarran Reed. Long gone are the days when you’d hope he might crest double-digit sacks, but Reed has quietly put together 27 QB hits and 11.5 sacks over the past two seasons. There’s still some juice there.
CB, Asante Samuel Jr., Chargers: See: Adebo, Paulson. Another young corner with a lot of good tape whose serious injury concerns during a contract year could put him in the one-year prove-it deal market.
*WR, Darius Slayton, Giants: People often ask the importance of a fourth wideout–especially on a team that runs as much heavy personnel as we do. But in our offense–which spreads the ball around and rarely force-feeds our top receiver–the value comes in that fourth receiver’s ability to consistently beat the defense’s fourth-best cover guy.
Stuck in the passing purgatory known as the New York Giants, Slayton isn’t a No.1 receiver. He probably shouldn’t be a No.2 either. But he’s a slippery athlete with enough size, speed, and skill to secure a rotational role lining up at any number of receiver positions. In the past, that swing role has largely been played by one-dimensional older receivers like Chris Conley or Travis Benjamin and limited late-round picks like Ronnie Bell. Slayton would be a sizable upgrade over either of those archetypes, and he could serviceably play major snaps early in the season before falling into a more situational role once Aiyuk returns. The fact that his targets–however sparse they may be–could feasibly be thrown to all three levels, would be icing on the cake.
DE, Josh Uche, Chiefs: What an odd journey for Uche, a guy who had 11.5 sacks as a speed specialist in his third year in the league, only to get traded two years later and be a healthy scratch for the Chiefs through the back half of the season. Uche’s breakout year always had some flukiness to it (only 11.5 sacks on only 14 QB hits), but his speed and bend are real. Like Ojulari, you worry about his size (240 pounds) as a full-time edge and lack of regular playing time, but it’s hard to believe he can’t at least be a subpackage speedster somewhere in the league.
DEEP DIVES
DE, Dennis Gardeck, Cardinals: You ever watch the Cardinals (not by choice) and some white guy on defense with long hair makes a play? Gardeck is probably that white guy. A torn ACL midway through the year killed some of his free-agent momentum, but he’s a proven commodity along the defensive line. His lack of size and ideal athleticism may make for a tough fit in our scheme, but figured he was at least worth mentioning.
DT, Chauncey Golston, Cowboys: Adding a 268-pound defensive tackle who has been an absolute sieve against the run probably isn’t the best way to fix our floundering run defense, but the athletic profile is good and he’s shown flashes as a pass rusher. He just might be relegated to third-down work.
*S, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Lions: I don’t expect us to spend big on a free agent safety as that’s not really how our defense is built, but if we wanted a veteran presence to push Ji’Ayir Brown for snaps, we could do a lot worse than Melifonwu. The 26-year-old was PFF’s 8th-ranked safety during his breakout 2023 season but missed the first two months of this season with an ankle injury and struggled once he returned. There’s high-end potential here. It just comes with risk.
WR, Elijah Moore, Browns: The highly touted college speedster showed plenty of promise as a rookie but was quickly shipped out of New York due to attitude issues and never found his footing in Cleveland. While it would be easy to blame Cleveland’s overall dysfunction for his shortcomings, this is a guy who was top 10 in the league in pass snaps played this season but could only register 538 yards and 8.8 yards/catch. The issues that led to his ouster from New York could strike him from our list and the breakout seems less and less likely each passing year, but I’m sure there are plenty of teams who liked him as a draft prospect and are willing to roll the dice.
WR, Joshua Palmer, Chargers: The Chargers are severely lacking in offensive firepower but may be letting Palmer walk. That’s not an incredible testament to his ability. To be honest, I’ve never really been much of a fan but I do think part of that is due to him being miscast (by injuries) as a leading man. We can do better, but we can also do worse. And if we’re worried about not having enough weapons out wide while Aiyuk rehabs his knee, at least we know Palmer can start some games. Even if we’d prefer he didn’t.
DT, Tershawn Wharton, Chiefs: Another undersized pass rush specialist with some serious issues against the run, Wharton peaked in a contract year, posting 11 QB hits and 6.5 sacks rushing from the interior.
BEST GUESSES
How serious will the Niners be about addressing the offensive line this off-season? We may not know until the draft comes along, but adding Dalman would send quite the signal. I’m not saying it’s expected or even that it’s likely. But the fit makes a lot of sense.
Despite a strong crop of defensive linemen in this upcoming draft class, adding one or two veterans to the rotation won’t stop us from slamming the position group come draft time. I would expect us to do exactly that, adding a two-deep player on the edge and a run stopper on the interior before looking for more foundational pieces come draft time.
Defensive back and receiver seem like two other positions where we’ll add vets—even if those vets may be more depth pieces than starters. A reclamation project corner makes some sense given the team’s hopes for Luter. While a flexible receiver who can still contribute once Aiyuk returns would give us both depth and early-season offense.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Free Agency Primer
bring back Dre
Lots to do in free agency, so let’s get to it. The Niners have 31 pending free agents, a number that seems overwhelming until you remember how many of those guys are depth players on short-term deals (Nick McCloud, anyone?). Still–if we include Deebo and Hargrave–we have six starters and a handful of important backups and rotational pieces who could depart this off-season. For a team that’s used to a high amount of roster continuity, that qualifies as significant change. So before we dive into other teams’ free agents, let’s look at how we might approach our own expiring contracts.
The Cap
Per usual, everything starts and ends with the salary cap, a number that has yet to be finalized but should be announced sometime in the next week or so. Best guesses have it landing somewhere around $275M, so that’s the number we’ll use for these purposes.
After finishing last season with the most cap space in the NFL, we enter this off-season with $50.4M available–good for 10th in the league. But a lot of that money is already earmarked.
Upcoming moves with Hargrave and Deebo are incoming. Cutting Hargrave–if designated as a June 1st cut–won’t change his cap hit much but will push a dead cap charge of $17.5M into next year. While Deebo’s cap figure ($15.8M) will likely double if we trade him–as trades can’t be designated June 1st, and it’s hard to imagine us holding him through the draft to get to that date organically. Let’s say a Hargrave post-June 1st cut and a Deebo trade shave another $16M off our cap space.
Kittle’s in the last year of his deal, and any (highly likely) extension would save us some money this season. Given his cap hit ($22M), an aggressive extension could net us an additional $10M+ in space. Fred Warner–whose $29M cap hit leads our team–has two more years on his contract but could also be in line for an extension to lower his cap figure. Let’s assume both guys get extended and–for ease of discussion–we do it conservatively and those new deals offset the $16M dead cap spike from trading Deebo.
Then, of course, there’s Purdy’s upcoming deal. There’s been some talk that Brock’s extension could resemble the shorter, less backloaded contract that Daniel Jones got a few years back. If that’s the case, we’d hedge on Purdy’s ability and save future cap flexibility at the expense of limiting present-day spending. While that’s certainly possible, don’t rule out the kind of backloaded deal that I outlined earlier, which would likely give Purdy a cap hit of no greater than $10M this season. It’s a riskier proposition in case Purdy’s play tanks, but given how we’ve operated in the past, the number of players we have in their primes and late primes, and how confident the team sounds in Purdy’s ability, that kind of structure still feels likely. Remember, if you believe in the player, slamming void years is effectively an interest-free loan. The Niners are a financially aggressive team. I don't think that changes here.
If Purdy signs a shorter, less backloaded deal then he’ll take up a sizable chunk of the cap and we’ll have little to spend on free agents. If we backload his deal into void years, we could have enough cap space to spend on one big fish or–more likely–a collection of pieces–including but not limited to our own free agents. Regardless of deal structure, I would guess that we spend free agency patching up holes, taking upside swings, and filling roster depth, rather than big game hunting. While the cap space could be there to pursue a Tee Higgins type, this feels more like the type of season where we make sure the books are (somewhat) in order for long-term sustainability.
Our Guys
As the unabashed conductor of the Dre Greenlaw hype train, I obviously want him back. If there’s any faith whatsoever that he can return healthy, the Niners should want him back as well. This need has only been exacerbated by the hiring of Saleh and our recommitment to a defensive scheme that relies heavily on rangy linebackers. Against the run, our linebackers’ ability to fill holes up and down the line of scrimmage allows our defensive line to line up wide and aggressively shoot gaps. Linebackers who lack speed or instincts can be slow to fill an interior hole—magnifying the weakness of our wide DL splits—or get beat to the edge—messing up all of our support angles. In the passing game, our linebackers’ ability to get deep and wide in coverage lets our DBs play everything top-down because they know they have so much help on digs and crossers. This squeezes out the middle of the field and forces teams to rely on short, out-breaking timing routes outside the hashes—the kind of passes that require rhythm and patience, that have little-to-no YAC potential, and that can be picked-sixed by a trap coverage. But when we have linebackers who can’t play in space (cough, cough, DeVondre Campbell), the middle of the field opens up for larger gains, which then leads to deep balls as the DBs get over-aggressive and missed tackles on checkdowns because our linebackers aren’t as fast to the ball and our second-level support is all out of whack. Subpar linebacker play has a serious trickle-down effect in this defense.
In the past, we’ve been lucky to have Azeez Al-Shaiir or Kwon Alexander coming off the bench as our third linebacker when Dre has missed time. Perhaps Dee Winters can be that guy. But if Dre is gone and Winters—who has his own injury problems—is our full-time starter, we are perilously thin behind him and will have a third linebacker with a giant target on his back whenever we’re not in nickel packages. The Niners know better than any of us how healthy Dre is. Let’s hope the answer is “very” and the result is an extension for our guy.
I’d consider Charvarius Ward, Aaron Banks, and Elijah Mitchell near certain departures. Ward just had a tragic year off the field and all his post-season comments point to a locker room that he loves but a place that is so steeped in trauma that his partner won’t even step foot in San Jose. Best of luck to him and his family moving forward. NFL execs are (mostly) not stupid. They should know his play will rebound closer to 2023 levels once his life stabilizes off the field. He’s likely to get rightfully paid out and net us a third- or fourth-round comp pick next year.
Banks is solid but kinda leveled out after his breakthrough second year. That’s not typically the sort of player and position combo that we shell out for in free agency. There’s a chance he gets a decent deal on the market–likely in a gap scheme where he doesn’t have to play as much in space—and could do well in a more downhill rushing attack. Mitchell was great when healthy, but “when healthy” has unfortunately become a disqualifier. Hopefully, he can get back on track somewhere else.
The Niners like Talanoa Hufanga enough that they started him over Ji’Ayir Brown once he returned from injury, but given the presence of our two young safeties and the word out of the Senior Bowl that the Niners will be looking to get faster on defense, it feels like Huf will likely get a better deal somewhere else. The market for him will be interesting, as many teams believe speed is required for high-level safety play, but he’s also a former First-Team All-Pro. Let’s call him a probable departure, like a Spirit Airlines flight. Maybe it takes off. But maybe not!
Many of our other free agents are rotational players who I’d consider “right price guys.” Granted, I genuinely believe that the Niners would want their entire free agent class back at the “right price.” Except for you, DeVondre Campbell. Not you. But the guys below should net less open market demand and are thus more likely to come back.
There’s been a lot of (rightful) talk about how we have to address the offensive line this off-season. The first step may be keeping some of our depth pieces in place so that it doesn’t get even worse next year. I’d expect us to retain Ben Bartch, Austen Pleasants, and Charlie Heck–all guys who cost functionally nothing and showed just enough to warrant another look but not nearly enough for us to be at all confident that any of them are more than stop-gap starters. Bring all three back, see how they perform in camp, and maybe someone surprises you.
Outside of the offensive line, I’d throw Kevin Givens and Eric Saubert in this boat. I’m sure the Niners are hoping for a tight end upgrade in this draft class, but for a team that often rosters three of the position, locking up one on the cheap feels likely. Givens has kind of plateaued in his second-line role and could get pushed out by a numbers game down the road, but—at the moment—those numbers are quite thin. Chris Conley is here too because he knows the playbook and we’re not in a spot to jettison strong special teams players. He also fills our “X receiver who threatens deep but never gets the ball” role on offense—totaling 239 snaps of offense last year. His status could change based on how we approach replacing Deebo, but—for now—Conley feels safe. One of our quarterbacks is likely to return, I’ll guess Josh Dobbs. And while the Niners would love it if Darrell Luter Jr. emerged to take one of those three starting corner positions next year, I wouldn’t be shocked if any of our veteran corners (Isaac Yiadom, Rock Ya-Sin) comes back–likely on the practice squad—if their market doesn’t materialize. If we don’t re-sign one of those corners before the draft, we can hope that means Luter is finally healthy and ready to perform.
Jaylon Moore would be in the above category, but for now, I’ll classify his situation as “playing the field.” Moore started five games for us at left tackle and played pretty dang well–certainly the best he’s looked so far in his young career. That could result in someone paying him to compete for a starting job elsewhere. Moore’s situation is a microcosm of our issues along the OL: too many playables, not enough dudes. Playables are great–as there are far too few in the NFL, particularly along the offensive line–but you can’t build a roster out of them. Moore was a well-liked prospect out of college who fell to us in the fifth round. Maybe he’s a late bloomer and there’s still untapped potential in his game. Maybe he caps out as something like a pass-pro-leaning Colton McKivitz. But at worst, he’s a playable swing tackle. Those are valuable. If Moore leaves for a potential starter salary, we’ll get a decent comp pick in return. But if he leaves on a relatively meager deal, that could signal that the Niners are serious about drafting a tackle this spring… or that we’ll be screwed if either of our tackles gets hurt come fall. Either one.
Jordan Mason also gets clumped in here because of his odd contract situation. With CMC and Guerendo both having significant injury questions, it would make sense to retain Mason–who was one of the league’s leading rushers in the short time he started for us. But the staff is rightfully high on Guerendo, meaning Mason’s value next year could fluctuate anywhere from our RB3 to one of the league’s top rushers. How do you value that kind of variance?
This is further convoluted by Mason’s status as a restricted free agent. Per RFA tender estimations, we’d have to offer him $5.2M to ensure a second round pick if someone outbids us. But while the money doesn’t seem outrageous for a potential suitor, the second round compensation–especially in a loaded RB draft class–is a nonstarter. We could also tender him with the $3.1M right of first refusal to let us match any offer that comes in. But since Mason was an undrafted free agent, we’d get zero compensation if he walks. Finally, there’s a third option: we don’t tender him at all and just let him test free agency. If someone pays him enough to be a part of a backfield by committee, we may net a comp pick in return. If they don’t, we could feasibly take him back on the cheap. This last option feels the most likely to me, especially given the surplus of rookie talent that’s coming down the pipeline.
Finally, we have our cut candidates. Hargrave and Deebo are expected. Any of the guys we added along the DL last year—other than Maliek Collins—could also be gone depending on how we approach the position group. Neither our kicker nor our punter seems safe, but I doubt we see a move away from either until we get through the draft and into camp. And lastly, don’t sleep on Juice, who already took a pay cut last season, will turn 34 in April, and is staring down a draft loaded with tight end/h-back prospects. Juice’s spot is a difficult one to fill. There are not a lot of guys who can execute the complexity of blocks that he can while still being a threat when split out wide. But his snap counts have steadily diminished over the past four years, and there’s reason to believe that the offense may be shifting away from the Swiss Army knife capabilities he’s so well known for. Just like with Deebo, everyone loves Juice. But if both depart this off-season, it could signal some legitimate schematic changes moving forward. Again, I love both those players and it would be sad to see them go, but a freshening up of our offense could be necessary.
Next, we’ll talk about potential free agent fits.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Off-Season Needs
Deebo and other dealings
The winds of change are (kind of) upon us, and the Niners have a lot of decisions to make this off-season to get back into contention. It’s far from an impossible task. Just look at the Eagles. They were trounced in the wild card a year ago and just won a Super Bowl despite having a soggy hoagie as their head coach. But there are important moves to be made to have any shot at returning to contention and finally getting over the hump.
The Deebo Dilemma. Before I get into our roster needs, the Deebo Samuel situation is worth mentioning, as he and his agent were just given permission to search out a trade partner.
First off, this doesn’t guarantee that a trade will be made. One negotiating tactic for teams–as seen most recently with Lamar Jackson’s latest extension–is to let a player’s reps look for deals so that they can set their own market. People like to imagine that Lamar Jackson was open for business two years ago, but all he was really doing was setting a figure for the Ravens to match. Any team wanting to sign him would have had to vastly overpay that mark and give up multiple first round picks in exchange. It was more of a negotiating ploy than anything else. In this case, Deebo is very much open for business, but there are more moving pieces than people like to think.
Unsurprisingly, cap implications will play a part in all this. And because of the timing of a roster bonus in Deebo’s contract, there’s a real chance this latest off-season saga will be done mercifully quickly.
All this seemingly points to a March 22nd deadline. But as cap maneuvering gets more complicated and less publicly transparent, even that is murkier than it would seem. So perhaps March 22nd is a deadline or maybe it’s just a benchmark in what could be yet another off-season saga that strings out longer than we’d like. The plus side is that—unlike with Aiyuk—if Deebo gets traded it should happen (at the latest) by draft time. Then again… this is the team that kept Jimmy G into the 2022 season because we didn’t like our trade return. And that—somehow—paid off with some quality starts and a solid comp pick down the road. If there’s a chance to do something weird and awkward that may or may not work but will certainly make some people uncomfortable, don’t put it past the Niners to give it a shot.
But what could Deebo net us in return? Honestly, I have no idea. Deebo is such a unique player that you’d imagine whoever trades for him would have a specific plan to get him into space as much as possible—most likely as the second fiddle to an established No.1 on a team that sees mostly zone coverage.
Former Niners’ lieutenants are always an option. Miami—with their commitment to receiver speed—sees as much zone coverage as anyone. Perhaps Mike McDaniel wants a powerful underneath option to complement the speedy skinny dudes who populate their receiving room? The Texans will likely be down two of their top three receiving options next season, with Diggs a free agent and Tank Dell looking at a lengthy rehab. And many expect the Commanders to make a splash, as they have a ton of cap space, a star QB on a rookie deal, and a legit need for a No.2 wideout opposite McLaurin.
Outside of the Niners’ extended universe, Denver has been floated, largely due to Sean Payton’s love of positionless skill players. The Steelers have at least been mentioned; they’ve been looking for a wideout opposite Pickens for quite some time now. And don’t count out teams that are further from contention but run by guys who are desperate to keep their jobs. Like the Giants, who have a No.1 wideout but will want to gather as much help as possible for the rookie QB they’re about to throw into the fire.
Deebo’s value will likely vary wildly from team to team, which makes it almost impossible to predict a legitimate landing spot or trade compensation. If I had to guess, I’d say the Niners would be happy taking back a second day pick in exchange. Will they get that? Who knows. But unless negotiations with his team get salty in a hurry, I don’t think this will come down to him being released.
A year ago, Stefon Diggs (and two Day 3 picks) were traded for a second rounder. A few months ago, Amari Cooper was flipped for a third round pick and a future seventh. Diontae Johnson—known headcase—was swapped for a fifth rounder before promptly becoming even more of a headcase and getting cut (twice). Regardless of what you think of Deebo’s 2024 season, it’s hard to argue he wasn’t better than Cooper and Johnson. And unlike Diggs, he isn’t coming off a season ending injury. Add on a contract that only pays him $16M next year, and we should get something in return.
It’s a bummer of an ending for Deebo’s tenure with the 49ers. He’s been one of my favorite players for years, but I don’t know how much he legitimately has left. And given how extensively teams have worked to limit his effectiveness within our particular scheme, a change of scenery could make sense for all involved. If/when Deebo gets moved, expect us to add another receiver. But I wouldn’t call it a pressing need. Aiyuk will return, Jennings has emerged as a legitimate No.2, and we spent two draft picks on the position just last year. A mid-round pick with good upside isn’t out of the question, but on the free agency front, I’d expect a depth signing like Darius Slayton or Robert Woods as much more likely than a big name such as Tee Higgins. This is not a situation where Deebo’s departure would cause us to scramble for a one-for-one replacement, which is largely the reason it’s happening in the first place.
ROSTER NEEDS
Offensive Line: They say an elite quarterback raises the ceiling of an offense. Well, an elite offensive line raises its floor. And we saw far too clearly what the floor looked like this season.
The zone/stretch running game was built by Shanahan the Elder to get outsized value out of undersized and undervalued linemen. Broncos OL legends like Dan Neil (3rd round), Tom Nalen (7th), and Mark Schlereth (10th) were all draft steals who checked in under 290 pounds. So it should surprise no one that Shanahan the Younger has taken a similar approach. In the eight drafts of the ShanaLynch era, the Niners have–to the chagrin of many–selected only three offensive linemen on the first two days of the draft. But times change.
As teams commit more heavily to push us out of our run and play-action game and into more dropback passing, the offensive line has become a problem. And as more teams jump on the zone/stretch train, those undersized but impressively athletic draft gems have started going earlier and earlier in drafts. While I don’t expect the Niners to drastically shift their team-building philosophy (OL coach Chris Foerster’s comments last off-season were telling), the best way to raise the floor of our offense is to improve in the trenches. And improve we must.
Our offensive line is interesting in that I like a lot of our depth pieces. Our bench has plenty of young(ish) backups like Spencer Burford and impending free agents Ben Bartch and Jaylon Moore–guys who have done good things in spot starts but who you can’t commit to as full-time starters. The problem is the frontline.
Trent Williams is still an A+ when healthy, but he missed the majority of last season and will turn 37 in the summer. We saw quite clearly how much oomph we lost at the point of attack when he was gone, and it would be smart to plan for the future in a way that insulates us in case that happens again.
Dominick Puni–who will likely move over to left guard to pair with Williams–is a B+ who is trending upwards. He was a unanimous All-Rookie selection and finished the season as PFF’s 7th-ranked guard. He has improvements to make, but he’s well on his way to being a foundational building block.
I’m assuming Aaron Banks leaves in free agency, so that would make Colton McKivitz our third-best lineman. Which isn’t really where we wanna be. To be fair to McKivitz, he played better this season than I thought he was capable of. He is never gonna be dominant in either facet and he’ll likely always have some ugly blow-bys in pass pro, but he cut down his pressure count (47 to 36) and sack count (9 to 2) from a year ago while improving his game across the board. I’m cool with McKivitz starting for us again this year. We can win with that. But with Williams missing the time he did last year, McKivitz was our second-best lineman. We cannot win with that.
Lastly, Jake Brendel continues to be a solid run blocker and a bottom-end pass-blocker. But the whiffs are tough and they’re getting tougher. Brendel allowed the 7th-most pressures among centers a year ago and the sixth-most this season. In 2024, he was also the second-most penalized center in the league–sandwiched between two rookies. For a scheme that has long appreciated elite center play, we desperately need an upgrade.
Outlook: Unfortunately, this draft is considered relatively weak along the offensive line. On the bright side, we have so many holes, we can be flexible. If we draft a guy and we’re not sure if he’s a guard or a tackle, McKivitz’s ability to kick inside means we can play him at either. Or he can start at guard while training to be an eventual tackle and McKivitz can stay outside. And since we’re picking all the way up at 11, we only need to give a few tackles a first-round grade to make addressing the OL with our first pick a strong possibility. We are notoriously picky with selecting offensive linemen, but we did take Mike McGlinchey at #10 in 2018. So it is possible. And by god will we be praying for it.
IMO, our goal should be to add two new starters. with at least one possessing high-end upside. I don’t think that’s a big ask given where we’re picking and how many selections we have. Perhaps one of our many depth pieces can win a competition for that fifth spot along the offensive line and surprise us, meaning we only need one spot to fill. Or maybe we can unearth two starters in one class–starting centers in particular can often be found on day two. With seven picks in the first four rounds, that’s certainly possible. Whatever the answer is, our offensive line must improve.
Defensive Line: The one big drawback of Saleh’s reunion is knowing that we’ll have to be dominant up front to return to an elite-level defense. That’s just how this scheme operates. And last year, we were far from dominant.
We finished 2024 ranked 24th in sacks (37), 18th in knockdown rate (8.3%), and 24th in pressure rate (20.5%). That was the worst knockdown rate we’ve had since 2020 and the worst pressure rate since before PFR started recording the stat in 2018. Then there was the run game.
Our problems against the run weren’t solely the fault of our defensive line. We had a lot of issues with off-ball run fits–especially from the secondary–and the loss of Greenlaw versus the run was made apparent during his brief cameo against the Rams. But the DL didn’t do us any favors.
Our need to fortify the trenches is doubly important because of how often we rotate bodies along the defensive line. Which means we need an influx of numbers. Like the offensive line, we have several dudes already on the roster who could be viable two-deep contributors next year. Leonard Floyd, Yetur Gross-Matos, and Maliek Collins varied in how long they took to get going, but they all had their moments. Evan Anderson and Sam Okuayinonu were both great budget finds and rotation pieces. But how many of those guys do you want starting alongside Bosa? One? Maybe two if the fourth guy on the line has genuine star potential?
We need frontline talent. And that need will only be exacerbated if we can’t re-sign Hargrave on a smaller deal after cutting him later this spring. One new starter and one specialist/heavy rotation player with upside seems like a reasonable ask and a good place to start.
Outlook: Edge rushers are always at a premium, and this free agent class is no exception. If we want a premiere edge rusher, it should come as no surprise to anyone that we’ll likely have to spend our first or second-round pick to get one. But there should be plenty of defensive tackles available on the open market and in the incoming crop of rookies. This year, it’s perhaps the single deepest position group in both free agency and the draft.
Similar to the offensive line, don’t be surprised if we spend two picks in the first two days of the draft fortifying our defensive front. But I’d also expect us to add a body or two–likely on the cheaper side–in free agency. With the loaded draft class and the surplus of free agent DTs, we should be able to find some buy-low candidates without bloating our cap or messing up our comp pick return for next year.
Tight End/H-Back: The long-awaited search for a Kittle running mate continues. And while a second tight end may seem like a luxury given the other holes in our roster, there’s still plenty of untapped potential in a Shanahan-led offense that can feasibly run heavy amounts of double-tight formations.
The need is increased by the fact that both Juice and Kittle are getting older. And the price tag is decreased by the fact that whoever we add doesn’t have to play major snaps right away. Would it be cool if he did? Well, yeah. But unlike offensive or defensive line, it’s not a requirement. Tight ends often come along slowly. All the more reason to add one sooner rather than later.
Outlook: Most free agent classes are bad at tight end, including this one. But this draft class is ripe with high-upside potential starters. There’s currently a large cluster of prospects competing for the TE3 spot, many whom look like they may have the natural receiving ability and athleticism to fit within our scheme. There is one prospect who will likely be around at 11 who I bet Shanahan likes quite a bit, but I’ll get to him another time. For now, a day 2 pick on a tight end seems to make the most sense. Or perhaps at the top of day 3 if the number of viable options continues to rise.
Third cornerback: Part of the reason why the Lenoir extension got done when it did is because the Niners loved his ability to play inside or out. This will let us be picky (and flexible) in finding the third member of our starting group.
There’s an argument that the third corner is already on the roster. The staff has long been high on Darrell Luter, but his inability to see the field over his first two years in the league should temper expectations. There’s another argument that the third corner was already on the roster, but we let him hit waivers on cut-down day last summer. Samuel Womack–who emerged so quickly back in 2022 that we cut ties with our then-starting nickel in the preseason–was one of our last cuts and was quickly swooped off waivers by the Colts. Within a month, he was their starting outside corner, finishing the season as PFF’s 26th-best corner with a 71.9 rating. It wasn’t as bad as the DJ Reed fiasco, but it certainly had some similarities.
Regardless, we’ll need someone to fill the shoes of Ward and Yiadom, whether he plays inside or out.
Outlook: Per usual, the Niners are not likely to spend a premium pick at the position. We might look twice if someone with high-end No.1 corner traits falls to us, but I’d guess this is a hole we fill with an established vet or in the middle rounds. Flexibility here is key. Great nickel corners are great but decent ones are not particularly hard to find, nor expensive.
This often applies to rookies as well. Cooper DeJean, a prospect basically everyone liked as a nickel but who some thought was limited to the inside, fell to the top of the second round in a thin cornerback class last year. He excelled immediately. But he did so playing entirely inside. A similar story unfolded a year earlier with Brian Branch, who quickly became one of the best nickels in the game.
That’s not to say that another DeJean or Branch exists in this class or that we have to pick someone in the second in order to get that kind of production. But it is to say you can find the position at value if you know where to look. My guess is we scour the back-end of the free agent class for a Rock Ya-Sin/Yiadom type player—a guy who has started meaningful games in the league but who can be had on the cheap. Then we approach the draft and hope to get a better and younger option somewhere in the middle rounds.
Linebacker: This only becomes a need if Dre Greenlaw walks, but–if he does–it becomes a substantial one. I like Dee Winters. As a coverage linebacker, he’s already there. As a run defender, he has hustle, but he has a ways to go in terms of finishing and fitting runs directly at him. He’s got potential, but he’s not Greenlaw. He also has an extensive injury history.
We line up mostly in nickel, but we don’t live in it like some other teams. Our second and third linebackers need to play. And even when we’ve dropped down into our 4-2-5, our second linebacker needs to excel in coverage. We saw quite clearly in the Super Bowl and most of last year what happens when we don’t have a space player in that role. They get hard-targeted in the passing game and that snowballs in a way that makes it difficult for our defense to get off the field.
Outlook: Uh… re-sign Greenlaw? There are some intriguing prospects in this draft class, and we have an exceptional track record of finding and developing linebackers in the latter rounds. Warner (3rd round), Greenlaw (5th), Winters (6th), and Azeez Al-Shaair (Undrafted) are all massive scouting and coaching wins. But, other than Greenlaw, they all took time to develop. This feels like a draft where we’re taking a linebacker, but that doesn’t mean it should be a year where we’re expecting that guy to start right away.
If we don’t have faith in Greenlaw’s health moving forward, that’s one thing. But if he can still play at the level we’re used to seeing, this isn’t the time to dick around. Just re-sign the man.
Go Niners 🏈👍