Learning From Thy Enemies
live feed of my viewing interests during the game
live feed of my rooting interests during the game
In football, everyone’s looking to be ahead of the curve, not on the backside of it. But in doing so, it’s important to discern outliers from trends and trends from universal truths. The Niners have been both good at this–starting the resurgence in star feature backs with the CMC acquisition, our entire offensive scheme–and bad–drafting Trey Lance for his mobility and big arm, everything involving special teams.
This Super Bowl was littered with takeaways–some legitimate team-building lessons and others powered more by fortunate circumstances. As always, it’s important to differentiate between the two lest we go down the wrong path. So before we dive into our roster needs, let’s try to separate genuine takeaways from fool’s gold through the lens of the Super Bowl.
TRUTHS
You Win In The Trenches. Football is still a game that is won—most commonly—along the offensive and defensive lines. If this game didn’t hammer that home, try to remember the last Super Bowl champion who was worse along both lines. A lot went into the Eagles’ blowout, but the primary factor was this–they dominated both lines of scrimmage. This is vitally important for us to understand as we approach an off-season where we have significant holes on both lines.
Rosters are Built Through the Draft. Yes, the Eagles have a few big name free agent/trade contributors–namely Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown–but depth and staying power is ALWAYS built through the draft. After some notable whiffs early in his tenure, Howie Roseman has built up the most talented roster in football by accumulating picks and making intelligent value plays–particularly in the first two days of the draft.
It’s Fine To Make Mistakes, As Long As You Learn From Them. But let’s talk about those whiffs. Roseman had some massive misses early, especially at wide receiver–JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Jalen Raegor, Nelson Agholor–and when choosing and extending the wrong franchise quarterback (Carson Wentz). These mistakes set the Eagles back but didn’t cripple them because he was able to recognize the mistakes, jettison them, and correct them. After all those wideout misses, Roseman promptly traded for an established top-tier veteran at a low price (AJ Brown) and then drafted a Heisman winner in the first round (Devonta Smith). He learned the importance of the position and addressed it accordingly.
This Is What It Looks Like When the Chiefs Are Called for Holding. Once more for those in the cheap seats. The Chiefs have come out like this in the first half of four of their five Super Bowls. We’ve seen this before. The big difference this time was that the refs didn’t allow them to hold their way back into this game. How many uncalled holds and pick plays on third down have we seen that jumpstart the Chiefs? That get them back into games that could otherwise become blowouts? We’ve now had two Super Bowls where the refs call the Chiefs for holding—where they actually make them play the same game as the other team—and they just so happen to be Chief blowout losses where they got overwhelmed by an opposing pass rush. The Eagles were considerably cleaner and more dominant than we were in either of our matchups against KC, but they also got to play in a game that was appropriately officiated (and where the Chiefs even had some ticky-tack calls against them). That makes all the difference. If you still don’t think those calls matter, that they can swing a would-be blowout into a nailbiter, and that those calls have overwhelmingly benefited the Chiefs (especially against us) and laid the foundation for their dynasty, I don’t know what to tell you.
LIES
Winning Only Close Games Just Means You’re “Clutch.” Actually, it probably just means you’re lucky. And the more extreme your run of one-score wins becomes, the more extreme your regression to the mean is likely to be. Just like that first Rams Super Bowl run, this Chiefs team was far too good at winning games that could have been decided by a single bad bounce of an oblong football. We like to attribute that to some preternatural skill, when—realistically—it mostly comes down to luck. The regression was coming. And boy did it ever.
An Elite QB Means You Don’t Need Skill Players. We saw it with Josh Allen the week before and with Mahomes yesterday/this entire season. You can’t just throw the ball to absolute randos and expect that to work. Just like an offensive line needs to block, receivers need to get open. To be fair, Mahomes played HORRIBLY in the Super Bowl, but—on a macro level—there’s only so much scheming you can do to get guys open when you’ve pieced your receiver corps together with duct tape and bubble gum and your future Hall of Fame tight end can only get open against soft zone and with the aid of pick routes. This trend feels like the natural overreaction to an overemphasis (and overpayment) of the quarterback position meeting GMs big-braining themselves into thinking they’ve cracked the code. Speaking of which…
You Can Get By With Shitty Tackles. If the Chiefs had won this game, we were about to see a bunch of GMs try to Moneyball themselves into thinking you could “hack” an elite offense by spending big on the interior OL, cheaping out on offensive tackles, and leaning on an inside rushing game and a mobile QB to make their lesser tackles “right” in pass pro. It didn’t matter that the Chiefs offense was far from elite this season. Or that—for much of the year—they weren’t even good. The wins and—in this alternate reality—the Super Bowl would have sent many a GM down this dark path. But after the Chiefs’ OL was so thoroughly extinguished last night, that’s no longer likely to happen.
KC spent all season being “just good enough” on offense, finding peak (yet plodding) efficiency late in games by relying on an interior power run game and letting Mahomes avoid the first guy that their woeful tackles let through. Late in the season, they pushed Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney out to left tackle, improving their offense by providing it one decent tackle but giving up interior dominance in the process and creating a red flag at left guard with his replacement. Their problem at tackle was so bad that they had to break up their one dominant position group—the interior OL—to fix it. This change seemed to work, but only because they went up against teams that weren’t talented enough upfront to exploit it.
While it seems insane, the Chiefs had far more yards in the Super Bowl than they did in their divisional round win against the Texans. And while some of that was effectively in garbage time, the big difference in the two outcomes were backbreaking turnovers and the Texan’s offense imploding opposite their defensive effort. We knew that this offensive line structure shouldn’t be able to sustain itself for a championship run because we assumed that—at some point—the Chiefs would run into a good defensive line paired with a functional offense (or just hold that defensive line repeatedly and get away with it).
OUTLIERS
It’s Fine To Have Glaring Holes in Your Scheme. Speaking of lucking into matchups, I wouldn’t take too much away from Jalen Hurts’ Super Bowl stat line or the Eagles’ passing numbers as a whole. Props to him and the rest of the team for doing what they do best, but they also ran into a matchup where they didn’t have to do anything they’re bad at. Powered by an elite offensive line, Saqon, and Hurts’ legs, this Eagles team can run with the best of them. And when defenses are keying that run game, they can throw the deep ball outside and over the top with their two No.1 receivers and underrated tight end. But they cannot, for the life of them, throw over the middle or hit timing routes.
In this case, it didn’t matter. The Chiefs’ wide array of bracket coverages are made mostly to stop inside-breaking routes. The type of routes the Eagles don’t throw. And any would-be double coverages were made moot by the fact that they needed numbers in the box to stop the run. You can’t bracket someone on a go route without putting yourself wildly out of position against everything else, and the result was a lot of one-on-one deep balls to two receivers who specialize in exactly that.
The Eagles were able to run train on the Chiefs because they were considerably more talented and the Chiefs couldn’t matchup against any of their weaknesses. Good on the Eagles for building a roster and scheme that can punish teams who can’t force them to do that one thing they’re terrible at. But they were fortunate that their three playoff matchups included two teams with woeful run defenses (Rams, Commanders), a rain game to nullify their passing disadvantage (Rams), and a Super Bowl against a team whose defense was built around taking away an entire section of the field that they just ignore. The matchups won’t always be that favorable.
No team is matchup agnostic, but the last thing we want to take away from this Super Bowl is the idea that “next time (if there is a next time) the matchup will be better” and we should just “do what we do.” There’s a difference between having an offensive identity and something to hang your hat on and being one-dimensional. We should continue to hone our strengths and play to them, but we also need to spend this off-season patching up weaknesses and evolving schematically. Otherwise, we’re leaving a whole lot up to chance. And if there’s one thing we should all agree on, leaving things up to chance has not served us well in the playoffs.
Go Niners 🏈👍
In Search of Stability
the face of a man who is no longer employed by the Jets
Brain drain was a term that was thrown around a lot as we stumbled sloppily through the 2024 season. Over the past four years, 49ers staffers have been promoted to three general manager jobs and three NFL head coach positions. And each time one man left, he took a few assistants with him. Since 2021, the Niners have lost 13 total coaches to promotion, including three coordinators, four(!) passing game coordinators (3 on offense, 1 on defense), two assistant head coaches, our offensive line coach, our receivers coach, an assistant d-line coach, and a defensive QC coach. We’ve also fired defensive coordinators in back-to-back years. So it was nice to start 2025 by getting one of the best of those bygone coaches back in the fold.
Back to Bob
After the Jaguars made us sweat it out for a minute, Robert Saleh returns for his second run as the 49ers defensive coordinator. While there was public talk about a potentially bigger schematic shift after the DC succession plan of “do our stuff well plz” saw sharply diminishing returns over the past two years, the Niners couldn’t pass up an elite defensive mind whose scheme, personality, and coaching style already came pre-approved. And who could blame them?
Yes, we need to update our scheme. We need to get less predictable, more diverse, and better at counteracting the “designer” plays that everyone and their mother was able to pepper us with every time the fourth quarter came around. But the core of this defensive scheme is far from broken. DeMeco Ryans just operated this defense to 3rd (DVOA) and 7th (EPA) place finishes before holding the Chiefs to 212 total yards in the playoffs. While Saleh’s teams in New York finished 6th (DVOA and EPA) in 2022 and 3rd (DVOA and EPA) in 2023 before his early-season canning led to the Jets falling off a cliff defensively. And the very public ineptitude of the Jets’ offense during this time makes these stats even more impressive.
This man can coach defenses. More specifically, this man can coach our defense. And–unlike Sorensen and Wilks–he already has the full trust of Shanahan to do so. That means Shanahan can coach the offense, Saleh can coach the defense, and neither will be stretched too thin trying to split their time between the other side of the ball. It also brings a trusted confidant who we know can challenge Shanahan when necessary. And that’s a win for everyone.
Saleh was the best DC on the market, the best locker room fit, and the best schematic fit for our current roster. While changing up the scheme certainly could have been interesting, it wasn’t worth missing out on a coach who is so good at running what we already have in place. Does this mean that a year or two from now he could be gone for another head coaching job? Doesn’t that go against the idea of “stability?” Yes. But if he does well enough here that he gets those future HC calls, then we’ve come out ahead. Especially, if he sticks around for at least two years. Because then we get more third-round comp picks when he leaves.
It Can’t Get Worse. Can It Even Get… Good?
I will not pretend to know shit about the past decade of New York Jets special teams, but I will say this: Brant Boyer–our new special teams coordinator–was hired by the Jets in that same role in 2016, meaning he lasted through 3.5 different unsuccessful coaching regimes. That speaks volumes. While DVOA only goes back to 2020, the Jets' special teams have placed in the top five twice during that span, and–after an atrocious start to this season–had the league’s best unit over the back half of the year.
If you want more random special teams rankings, sportswriter Rick Gosselin has been power-ranking NFL special teams units since 2000 (no one knows why), and he’s credited Boyer with piloting four top 10 units since 2016. It should surprise no one that–during that same period–we haven’t placed in the top 10 once.
Let's go to Pro Football Reference's EPA metric for an example of what a good special teams unit could look like. During the 2023 season–when the Jets’ special teams finished 5th in DVOA–they had positive EPA in 10 of 17 games. During our 2023 season–when we finished 25th in special teams DVOA–we had a positive EPA in only 3(!) of 20 games. In 2023, the Jets’ worst special teams performance was a -3.99 EPA mark against the Browns. In 2024, we were worse than that mark six times.
Count me among those who believe Shanahan needs to approach special teams differently if we’re ever to field a genuinely elite unit. But an average one? We can do that. Richard Hightower did it for years when Shanahan was first hired. It’s just been a minute since we’ve seen it. The hiring of Boyer seems like a step in the right direction.
Also, There’s This Guy
We technically have a third new coordinator hire this off-season, but since he’s yet to be made official, won’t call plays, and has already worked on our staff in largely the same capacity, this promotion is understandably less exciting.
Klay Kubiak, who has been on our staff since 2021, will be our first offensive coordinator since Mike McDaniel left three years ago. He knows the scheme, has already played a big role in game planning as last season’s passing game coordinator, and even called plays during the “play hard but don’t win” regular-season finale in which we racked up 436 yards of offense. His promotion seems more like a title bump than anything, but it should benefit us in that having knowledgeable coaches who can collaborate with Shanahan is a good thing. The gains could be marginal, but this should be a net positive.
That said, I was hoping for an external hire, even if that idea was always better in theory than in practice. While I believe in the bones of this offense and still think it’s as good as any when we’re executing, I would have liked some outside ideas to juice up our dropback passing attack and diversify our run game. But that was always a long shot. Shanahan wasn’t going to name a person who doesn’t know the scheme offensive coordinator, and an established offensive mind was unlikely to enter the fray if they were offered the opportunity to call plays elsewhere. Our best hope would have been securing something like Kliff Kingsbury’s one-year sabbatical at USC last season or finding and promoting a rising star from another staff. Again, this was always a stretch. But it would have been nice.
Next up, the guys who actually play the sport.
Go Niners 🏈👍
CFP Viewing Guide
to college we go
Disappointed in this terrible season? Itching to watch meaningful football into January that doesn’t feature degenerate organizations such as the Chiefs and the Eagles? Below is a viewing guide for the College Football Playoff, if all you care about is keeping an eye out for players who the Niners might draft come spring. For each of the eight remaining teams, I’ve highlighted (or tried to highlight) one player who might be a good fit for us, a second-best option, and any other players of potential interest.
It’s very early in the evaluation process, so I’ve only included guys currently ranked in the top 100ish by whatever media outlet. I’ve also (mostly) included dudes at positions that may be of genuine need in the first three rounds. Needs such as offensive line, where we have an aging Hall of Famer, a homerun rookie, and–uh…room for improvement; defensive line, which needs an influx of front- and back-end talent–with our without Javon Hargrave; tight end/fullback–to give us an heir apparent to Kittle, a potential replacement for Juice, and the double tight potential that has seemingly alluded us for years; and secondary, where we’re strong with young talent but still likely losing 2-3 contributors from this season.
OHIO STATE
This Buckeyes team is loaded with talent, and–despite a season-ending knee injury–#71 OT, Josh Simmons (1st round) could be their first player off the board. He’s big, athletic, and skilled both as a pass protector and in the high-movement run-blocking schemes we prioritize, giving him the two-way potential to become an immediate starter and long-term bookend along our OL. Now the injury is a question mark until he gets through medicals, and there’s some concern that–due to the timing of it–his improvement this year wasn’t properly tested against elite competition. But—as we know—the Niners typically don’t like taking offensive linemen high unless they have truly elite tools and Simmons could present the right blend of size, talent, and movement skills for the Niners to draft him in the top half of the first round.
Runner-Up: Ohio State could have three starters along the DL drafted by the end of the second round, and realistically any of them could fit here, but I’m going to highlight #91 DT, Tyleik Williams (1st-2nd). With his size (6’2” 322 lbs.), athleticism, and strength, the potential is quite obvious–even if the consistency leaves something to be desired. This is an intriguing and deep defensive tackle class that features better interior rushers than Williams, but he is—at least—a high-level run defender and he’s shown enough flashes as a pass rusher to think he might be able to put it all together.
Others: #44 DE, JT Tuimoloau (1st-2nd) and #33 DE, Jack Sawyer (2nd) were both former five-star defensive ends who have rounded into high-end starters—even if neither of them are game breakers. They’re both smart, high-motor guys, with JT being the more versatile (with more pass-rush potential) while Sawyer seems like a long-term run-stuffing specialist whose a bit too stiff to rack up major sacks… I’m not as high on #2 WR, Emeka Egbuka (1st-2nd) as a lot of other people. I think he’s got the savvy and route running to be a solid pro, but I typically want more from a first-round receiver. His “always a bridesmaid” college career makes me question the ceiling for a guy going this high… the same goes for their CB duo of the long and rangy #1 CB, Davison Igbonisun (2nd-3rd) and post-first-round-hype #10 CB, Denzel Burke (2nd-3rd), although both could rise quickly if they don’t get torched by Oregon again in the quarterfinals… Finally, the Buckeyes have two running backs who could get drafted by the end of day 2, but since I’d rather not put into existence the idea of drafting a back that early, I won’t even mention them.
OREGON
If we’re looking for a disruptive presence on the inside, we could do much worse than #55 DT, Derrick Harmon (1st round), whose counting stats (5 sacks) aren’t incredible but is one of the nation’s leaders in interior pressures. He doesn’t look as impressive as some of the other guys he’ll be compared against (and testing will be interesting), but his constant presence in opposing backfields is impossible to ignore. He’s a one-gap shooter through and through who would slot seamlessly into our wide 9 front. His best comp is probably Javon Hargrave.
Runner-Up: #76, OT Josh Conerly (1st-2nd) may not declare for the draft this year, and–given how raw he still is–that could be the right call. He’s likely going to polarize a lot of scouts and picking him in the low teens feels like a sizable stretch, but he’s a former five-star whose got the right size and high-end athleticism to become a long-term starter outside in our scheme, even if he needs to add refinement and play strength. I don’t think he’s a plug-and-play type, so–if we were to draft him–I’d want to trade down until much later in the first to do so.
Others: #3 TE, Terrance Ferguson (3rd round+) has been a legitimate contributor for four years in Eugene, registering 17+ grabs each year in college (with 38 so far as a senior). He looks pretty athletic on tape—which is more important for our TEs/FBs than most due to our complicated edge blocking and reliance on YAC yards—and scouts expect him to test well… Over the years we’ve enjoyed many a jumbo Oregon defensive lineman and #1 DE, Jordan Burch (3rd round) could be next in line. Especially if he can play inside and out. He’s a 6-6 295-pound end who paces Oregon with 8.5 sacks… Out wide #7 WR, Evan Stewart (2nd-3rd) and #18 WR, Tez Johnson (3rd) are both somewhat undersized big-play threats. Stewart is a bit bigger and has more outside receiver potential while Tez is a more polished route runner but his size (5’10” 165 lbs.) probably limits him to the slot.
GEORGIA
If we don’t count Carson Beck, every Bulldog who may get drafted in the first three rounds is probably a good schematic fit for us, so I’ll zag and go with #24 S, Malaki Starks (1st). Safety is far from a pressing need for our team, but I have a soft spot for instinctual playmakers on the back end and Starks has the football intelligence and versatility to line up all over the field. We’ve seen how a smart and versatile safety/nickel can quickly unlock a new identity for an NFL defense (Brian Branch - 2023, Detroit; Kyle Hamilton - 2022, Baltimore). Taking Starks would very much be a “best player available” sort of pick, but it could also signal a schematic evolution for our defense.
Runner-Up: While we’re on the topic of position-agnostic defenders whose selection could unlock some newfound schematic flexibility, #11 OLB/DE, Jalon Walker (1st) is as intriguing as any prospect on our radar. He backed up future pros his first two years in Athens–playing mostly as a third-down edge rusher–before becoming a starting stand-up linebacker as a junior. Due to the lack of snaps and how Georgia has bounced him around, his instincts are a bit of a question mark. That would be a massive red flag for me if I thought he was going to stick at linebacker, but–in our scheme–I see him more as a guy who would speed rush opposite Bosa and moonlight as a drop man for the occasional trap coverage. He is an S-tier athlete who needs a developmental plan, but the ceiling is enticing.
Others: #13 DE, Mykell Williams (1st) is your more traditional hand-on-ground edge, and while he lacks Walker’s high-end explosiveness, he’s strong, long, and a great mover. He needs to show more consistency and put it all together, but he’s flashed enough with big moments in big games (4 sacks in two games against Texas this year) to think he’s on the right path… If we’re looking for interior offensive line (and god, we should be) Georgia has three dudes who could be drafted by the end of day 2. #55 C, Jared Wilson (3rd) lacks ideal experience and length but is a high-end athlete and a nice scheme fit because of that. Like Wilson, #53 OG, Dylan Fairchild (2nd-3rd) is also one of the top players in the country at his position and a quality athlete—even if he needs to add some strength. And #69 OG, Tate Ratledge (2nd-3rd) is basically everything you’d expect from a dude whose name is Ratledge, plays guard, and wears #69. He’s strong and tough and could likely start at guard for us as a rookie… Finally, #4 TE, Oscar Delp (3rd) was buried for years behind all-world tight end Brock Bowers but–despite middling production–has nice athleticism and YAC potential. Like Ferguson from Oregon, he may be a riser as the draft process continues.
TEXAS
Is he a tackle? Is he a guard? Luckily, we’re not picky cause we desperately need both 🙃. NFL teams are torn on the true position of Outland Winner #78 OT/G, Kelvin Banks (1st), but it’s not hard to imagine him starting at either right tackle or guard for us next season (after Banks leaves and we move Puni to LG). Our need for linemen in the short- and long-term also means that we could feasibly let him start at guard as a rookie before developing into a tackle down the road. He’ll need to improve his balance and figure out how to sustain better on our long stretch blocks, but he’s got the athleticism to get there.
Runner-Up: Like Starks from Georgia, I’m throwing another hyper versatile, heady DB into the mix with #7 DB, Jahdae Barron (1st-2nd round). More of a day 3 prospect before he proved he could play outside corner this year, Barron can truly play any position in the secondary and is at his best in a zone-heavy scheme where he can read and make plays on the ball. You know, like ours. I doubt the Niners are looking to spend a first-rounder on a defensive back, but Barron’s draft stock is a bit TBD at the moment, and it’s not hard to see Lynch and Co. falling in love with his football intelligence and versatility.
Others: If we don’t go for Banks, perhaps we go for fellow bookend #56 OT, Cameron Williams (1st), who is getting Amarius Mims comps due to his incredible size, athletic ability, and untapped potential. Like Mims, Williams is only a one-year starter, and while I don’t know if I’d go as far as to say he’s on the former Georgia standout’s level of raw talent, the upside is real. To this point, the Niners have largely avoided these types of low-experience, high-upside prospects along the offensive line, but hey, might as well throw his name out there… Speaking of high potential with question marks, #7 WR, Isaiah Bond (2nd) is far from consistent and you know he’d be an early candidate for the Kyle Shanahan “in this receiver’s ass” award, but the athleticism, easy movement skills, and deep speed are highly intriguing. If he’s wired right, he could easily be a better pro than a college player.
PENN STATE
In the semifinal blowout over SMU, Penn State ran #44 TE, Tyler Warren (1st) on a fly sweep handoff to operate a speed option pass. So yeah. Kyle Shanahan’s gonna love this guy. Under new OC Andy Kotelnicki, Warren had truly rare usage for a college tight end, tallying a 92-1095-6 line as Penn State’s best receiving option by a mile. I’m interested to see how he tests, but he’s a smooth mover who’s got A-level versatility and hands, and he’d be a great fit in our offense. The sticking point? He’s probably a first-round talent, and that’s too high for us to take a tight end. But if he were to fall into the second… I gotta imagine we’d be interested.
Runner-Up: I don’t know where Penn State continually finds these guys, but they’ve got another edge rusher with elite athletic traits coming down the pipe in #11 DE, Abdul Carter (1st). He moved from standup OLB to full-time edge this season, and–unlike Chop Robinson a year ago–has found immediate production; he currently leads the Big Ten in TFLs (22) and sacks (11). One year isn’t enough time to figure out all the nuances of pass rushing, so he’ll need some time to develop and may start out as a subpackage rusher in our turbo sets while honing his technique and strength against the run. But the potential for a full-time speed rusher opposite Bosa is sky-high.
Others: The Nittany Lions have another defensive lineman who might go in the first few rounds in #33 DE, Dani Dennis-Sutton (3rd+), but I don’t know if he has the athletic profile to intrigue us unless he falls into day 3 and/or we feel like he can play inside… It’s not hard to see #10 RB, Nick Singleton (Day 3) having some success in our running game, but–as noted before–we shouldn’t be taking a running back in the first two days unless they’re an elite talent who has fallen tremendously. But maybe we can get Singleton for good value if he falls on day 3.
NOTRE DAME
Like Simmons at Ohio State, you won’t be seeing #20 CB, Benjamin Morrison (1st-2nd) in the playoffs after he suffered a torn hip labrum back in October, but–also like Simmons–he may be a first-rounder this year nonetheless. He’s got good size, ball skills, and production, but testing will be critical as there were always questions about his deep speed and transitions. Those concerns are no doubt greater after his injury.
Runner-Up: A two-time All-American with 13(!) interceptions over the past two years, #0 S, Xavier Watts (?) won the Bronko Nagurski Award for the nation’s top defender last year, but his draft evals seem all over the place. He’s a physical presence and with great ball skills, but his change of direction, lack of top-end speed, and overall awareness in coverage have some scouts questioning how he transitions to the NFL level. Perhaps he’s limited to a box role in the NFL or perhaps he’s a Huf-type who can be had at a discount.
BOISE STATE
The Broncos have one player likely to get picked in the top 100 of the draft, and it’s #2 RB, Ashton Jeanty (1st). We’re not taking a running back in the first round, and Jeanty’s certainly not falling out of it, so there's not a lot to talk about here. But he is quite awesome.
ARIZONA STATE
Uh… that white running back? But honestly, not really. #4 RB, Cam Skattebo (Day 3) is probably the Sun Devils’ best prospect but he’s not a great fit with our scheme. He’s not fast or particularly explosive through the hole. He’s more of a banger subpackage type. Maybe he can gain like twenty pounds and play full back…? And also learn to block? But at that point, we should probably just pick a guy who plays TE/H-back already. But if we want the whitest running back room since the 1950’s, we know who to call.
BONUS: NORTH DAKOTA STATE (FCS Champ Game)
If you’re really itching for some college football, #74 OL, Grey Zabel (2nd-3rd) is a small school prospect who has ascended from preseason Day 3 status to (likely) somewhere on Day 2. A starter at left tackle for the Bison with great feet and intelligence, he could legitimately play any of five positions along the offensive line, even if his lack of ideal bulk and length probably pushes him inside. The movement skills are a great fit for our scheme and many think Zabel projects best at center—a position where we desperately need an upgrade.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Sustainability in the Era of the Bajillion Dollar Quarterback
guesstimating Brock’s big payday
With the playoffs no longer a thing, we’ve entered the information gathering stage of the season. The team is still trying to compete and win, but mostly to infer which players it needs to gain or lose to compete for something much bigger a year from now. That makes this stretch run vitally important for soon-to-be free agents such as Huf and Greenlaw, as well as our quarterback, whose upcoming price tag has yet to be determined.
When people talk about the Niners’ closing contention window, the giant (mostly) unspoken assumption is that Brock Purdy is actually… not that good. Therefore, if we pay him a market QB rate, we will become–like him… not that good. Never mind the fact that in 2017 we gave Jimmy Garoppolo what was then the largest contract in NFL history, and–under his “guidance”–we had a winning percentage of 69% (lol, Jimmy would). The going belief–regardless of how accurate it may be–is that a big deal for a QB will result in a massive dropoff in our ability to surround said QB with the talent needed to compete.
Can We Procrastinate? This would be the ideal scenario. Have Purdy play next season on his rookie deal, get more info on the player he could become, and then happily pay the salary cap inflation surcharge that comes with waiting a year for an extension. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll have a choice. Purdy has one more year on his rookie contract, but now that he’s extension-eligible there’s no way his agent lets him play a snap on that deal.
At his current pay rate, Purdy is making just over $1M this season, with an average annual salary of $934K that ranks 84th among NFL quarterbacks and 1,756th among all NFL contracts, regardless of position. That’s right, despite active rosters being capped at 53 players, there are–on average–54.8 players being paid more handsomely on every team across the league than Brock Purdy. All this while Spotrac puts his calculated market value at $59.7M/year. Even if you hate Brock, you cannot deny that he’s currently one of the greatest bargains in the history of professional sports. He’s about to get paid, and—based on public comments from Lynch and Shanahan—I think the Niners are happy to do it.
How Many Brinks Trucks We Lookin At? If you have an elite quarterback looking for a contract extension, you typically just reset the market with a new deal and hope you can structure it well. But while Brock has looked elite at times in the early goings of the season, his overall play has been closer to above average to good.
If I’m breaking QBs into tiers, I have four dudes indisputably clumped together in Tier 1: Allen, Lamar, Mahomes, and Burrow. These are the guys who are so good that they’re effectively your offensive engine, even if you cut corners around them.
Tier 2 would involve more of the Herbert and Stafford types, guys who aren’t perfect but can play at a high level with heavy responsibility and control in the pure dropback passing game. They’re not a one-man offense, but they can carry you for long stretches.
Tier 3 features above-average-to-good starting quarterbacks who can pop off statistically but need a scheme and a supporting cast. That’s where I’d put Purdy. In tier 3 and somewhere in the 10-15 of overall quarterbacks, clustered around the Baker Mayfields and Geno Smiths of the world but with more youth and growth potential.
It’s not unreasonable to think that if we’re handing out a big deal to Purdy, we expect him to become (at least) a perennial bottom-of-the-top-10 type guy and solidly in that second tier. But he’s not there yet. And what’s the price tag for a guy like that? Honestly, who the hell knows, but it’s probably more than you’d like.
Here’s the AAV for each of the long-term QB deals that got handed out last off-season: Kirk Cousins ($45M), Trevor Lawrence ($55M), Jordan Love ($55M), Tua ($53M), Goff ($53M), and Dak ($60M). How many of those guys would you consider firmly in the Tier 2 range of quarterbacks? How many would you consider better than Purdy? It doesn’t really matter. This is the market for veteran starting quarterbacks. So if we eliminate the comparison point of the 36-year-old coming off an Achilles injury, we’re probably looking at something in the mid-50M range, adjusted for salary cap inflation.
Are There Alternatives? Not really.
A rookie? Dear God, no. This looks to be one of the worst quarterback classes of the past decade, and while I wouldn’t be surprised if some starters emerge from it, I have no idea who those starters might be. While rolling the dice on a rookie and hoping they can learn under Purdy for a year is a fun theoretical exercise, it also assumes two things—that this rookie (unlike Trey Lance) will turn out at least as good as Purdy within a year and that Purdy will be down to play as a lame duck starter for a year at a $1M rate. Neither seems plausible.
What about a free agent? Like Kirk Cousins, the 36-year-old QB coming off an Achilles injury who threw one touchdown to nine picks over his last five starts? Or Mac Jones with his chill 3-13 record and 15-to-17 TD-to-INT ratio over the past two seasons? Justin Fields, whose weaknesses as a passer–anticipation and throwing quickly on underneath routes–overlap entirely with the core of our offense?
Ultimately, there is only one veteran option on the quarterback market who is even remotely plausible/intriguing as a long-term starter. And he was on the roster last year. Let’s entertain this hypothetical.
Say the Vikings move on from Sam Darnold and–rather than play bridge quarterback to another rookie or start for some woefully shitty franchise–he wants to come back to the bay. As a guy who has gotten paid nothing and is a year removed from MVP consideration, Purdy asks for something like five years at $55M/yr. While Darnold–who has suffered through various terrible organizations and is just now getting a taste of what it’s like to play on a good team–is less desperate for big money and swoops in with something like four years at $35M/yr (kinda like Baker’s deal).
We sign Darnold then ping the Titans—and friend and GM Ran Carthon—and convince him to opt for Purdy—the proven commodity—over the likes of the second or third-best rookie QB in a bad class. We trade Purdy for something like a 1st rounder and two second day picks over the next two years.
With an additional $20M in cap space spread out over the next four years, two picks in the top 12, and more coming down the pipeline, we’ve effectively jumpstarted our retooling. We’ve swapped out a 25-year-old QB for a 27-year-old one with superior physical tools who we’re already familiar with. We draft an elite defensive line prospect in the top ten and a mauler guard/tackle at 12 and we reload in a hurry with the intent of competing right now and for years to come.
This is one of the only scenarios outside of “just pay Purdy” that even remotely intrigues me. It’s also not going to happen. But it is fun to think about. And it shows us how few viable options exist outside of just paying our quarterback, hoping he develops, and continuing to build a strong roster around him.
A Structure to Ease the Pain (For Now). The good news is that–wherever his total dollar amount lands–there’s a way to structure Purdy’s contract so we can continue to spend. And we’ve already seen the blueprint. Coming off a Super Bowl appearance in 2022, the Eagles gave Jalen Hurts a then-record 5-year/$255M deal. But you wouldn’t know it from his annual cap hits:
2023 = $6.1M
2024 = $13.5M
2025 = $21.8M
2026 = $31.8M
2027 = $41.8M
2028 = $47.1M
So how does a five-year extension with an AAV of $51M/yr never once reach that mark throughout its lifetime and average out to $27M/yr cap hits? The key is in the triple bonus structure. NFL teams are allowed to add up to five void years to the end of any contract to spread out the cap hits of guaranteed money. The Eagles added four of those to the end of Hurts’ contract and used them to stash $97.6M(!) worth of guaranteed money until later. In effect, they’re kicking the can down the road, so when Hurts’ contract is up in 2029–the Eagles will owe that bill in the form of a nearly $100M dead cap hit. While pushing off a nine-figure sum sounds financially irresponsible, two things are worth contextualizing.
First off, future costs are somewhat offset by the explosive growth of the NFL salary cap. With the last restructured year of his rookie deal included, Hurts’ extension was for six years. Over the past six years, the salary cap has risen 35%. This despite the temporary downturn of a season played without fans during the global pandemic. It’s safe to expect the cap to continue to rise from now through the next six years, meaning that $100 million will equate to considerably less cap space and spending power once it finally hits the books.
Secondly, these void years can act as placeholders for another extension down the road. Hurts has four void years tacked onto the end of his deal, each with its own cap figure and structure. If they let him walk once those void years hit, none of that structure will matter—just the total dead cap hit. But if they extend him before the contract voids, those cap hits effectively become the starting point for his restructure—once again pushing a big chunk of the next bill toward the end of that next extension.
Is there risk involved? Absolutely. But by structuring big QB deals like this, teams can continue to spend money on the rest of their roster. And for quarterbacks like Hurts or Purdy–players who you may like but who can’t carry an entire offense ala Josh Allen–committing to extensions under this framework allows you to keep adding the pieces needed for them to perform at a high level. After extending Hurts, the Eagles have handed out a record-setting deal to AJ Brown ($32M/yr), extensions to both DeVonta Smith ($25M/yr) and Jordan Mailata ($22M/yr), and multi-year free agent deals to Chauncey Gardner-Johnson ($9M/yr) and Saquon Barkley ($12.6M/yr). They’ve even had enough cap space to whiff on some big extensions (James Bradberry - $12.6M/yr) and additions (Bryce Huff - $17M/yr).
On the player side, this contract structure provides tons of guaranteed cash and unprecedented job security. Hurts’ new deal has a no-trade clause, but the structure effectively makes it redundant. Because if the Eagles wanted to move on from Hurts right now–or at any point before the contract expires–they’d have to foot a gargantuan dead cap bill. This season it would have tallied $242M, or 95% of their total cap space for the year.
So what’s the drawback? Well, there’s always a downside to pushing that much money off into future seasons, but the real risk lies in the evaluation. If you structure a deal like this and you pick wrong (see: Watson, Deshaun) you are unequivocally fucked. You basically have to either bite all that dead cash and blow up your roster in a way the league has never seen or just ride it out with a lame-duck quarterback for multiple years. For instance, cutting Jalen Hurts in the second year of his $55M/yr deal would cost the Eagles $242M. But doing the same with Dak—whose $60M/yr contract is NOT backloaded with massive void year hits—would cost the Cowboys a “measly” $152M. The void year structure takes away escape hatches.
But if we’re deadset on Purdy and are gonna pay him that kind of guaranteed cash anyway, structuring the deal this way is not much riskier than any other long-term extension. In fact, by offering him the kind of job security that comes with this type of extension, we may even get a slight discount.
Slight. Maybe. But that’s probably the best we can ask for.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Sim To End
on to the next (season)
Well, that was fun. Except for all the parts that were absolutely miserable.
The loss to the Rams was perhaps a fitting end to this season, and–in many ways–this era. I don’t believe the “Last Dance” narrative, as that was always a lazy metaphor spoken by people who didn’t watch the doc and don’t watch the Niners. But there was always going to be some player movement after this season, and–based on how poorly things have gone–there might be more of it now than we would have expected a year ago. But don’t expect the Niners to be down for long.
Football is a sport of attrition, where injury luck and depth are paramount to success. The NFL is a sport of variance, where a single elimination tournament decides its champion every year. Because of all this, team-building in the NFL is much different than the feast or famine (sell or buy) dichotomy of the NBA. Contention is not binary. Super Bowl windows aren’t just wide open or shut and sealed. The teams that find themselves perennially in contention understand that. Because every one of the winningest teams of the past ten years has seen its schemes adapt and evolve, its assistants and coordinators move on, its All-Pro/HOF players retire, and–as shocking as it may sound–its starting quarterbacks change at least once. Because the beauty of the NFL is that if you play your cards right, any team can contend quickly. And if you build a winning culture and a sustainable roster, that contention window can be extended indefinitely.
So while the Niners may have an expensive roster, they also have the most cap space in the NFL. And while we may be one of the oldest teams in the league, the difference between the average age of our roster and the second-youngest is about a year and a half. This is not a rebuild. Nor are we tearing down everything but one wall for tax purposes. This can–and should–be a genuine re-tooling. Because even if we let every single one of our free agents walk in the off-season, we’d still have six players returning who were named to an All-Pro team in the past two years–with four of them 28 or younger–and a 24-year-old quarterback who was an MVP finalist a year ago. That is a foundation that is built to last. And while we’ll need to make the right moves to stay there, there’s no reason to believe we can’t get back to contention as soon as next year.
The most obvious comp to a successful (and reasonable) rebound year in 2025 would be this year’s Eagles, who–despite some very legitimate passing game issues (issues which could be season-ending if they get the wrong draw in the playoffs)–followed up a miserable 2023 with a genuine shot at the NFC’s top seed a year later. Now, there’s an argument that the Eagles’ superior depth–and their desperate need to switch out both coordinators–put them at a better chance for a quick turnaround, but–once again–note our All-Pros. The Niners have superior top-end talent, and–with an excellent rookie class and ten expected picks in the upcoming draft–an adrenaline shot of viable youth is very much in play.
All this to say, I don’t believe this off-season will (or should) result in the kind of massive roster turnover that many seem to be expecting. Deebo and Hargrave (and potentially Juice) could be veteran cuts. Aaron Banks and Ward will likely leave for healthy markets in free agency. We’d be smart to keep Huf if we can. Greenlaw’s the only dude I’d consider a mandatory re-sign. Hopefully, all our guys get paid well, regardless of where they wind up. And, of course, there’s Purdy’s incoming extension, which will mean we must cut spending elsewhere but not as severely as many people think. That will be the topic of my next write-up as I officially shift from this blog from this season to the next.
Come September, this roster will likely feature many of the same leading actors as before but its general make-up will look different. Frankly, there’s a sense of freedom to that. An excitement for what’s next. “Run it back” made sense for a while, and it’s a fun mantra when you’re holding championship parades. But it tires on you when you’re not. The silver lining of this bottom-out of a season is that it gives us a chance to finally reset things that aren’t working and push us to evolve our roster and scheme into our next contention era. So yes, the present is bleak, but the future remains quite bright.
Go Niners 🏈👍