Draftables: Mac Jones
Every media member’s dream fit
“It’s easier to maximize your ability when you know where that ability ends”
- probably a real person
That may seem like a diss, but you gotta respect what Mac Jones has done with limited physical tools. He’s gone from the afterthought quarterback in one of the best college recruiting classes of all time, to the winner of a preseason quarterback competition with a five-star Kyler Murray-type, to a national championship winner and potential top 5 pick in the NFL draft.
His production this year—while leading one of the top offenses in college football history—was remarkable, but two major questions remain: (1) how much of that production was—like it has been for so many Alabama quarterbacks before—based on the supreme talent and scheme around him; and (2) how will his lack of ideal tools translate to the NFL?
Let’s try our best to find out / guess.
![Get… excited? [Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1617765369346-P2ZPPPA202UVEA3FMBF5/Mac+Jones.jpg)
Get… excited? [Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images]
Ht: 6-2
Wt: 217 lbs.
Age: 22
School: Alabama
Stats
Build: Due to his long limbs, I expected Mac (real name “Michael McCorkle”) Jones to be much bigger, but he measured out just a fraction of an inch taller and a few pounds heavier than Zach Wilson. However, the two carry their weight much differently.
In essence, Mac Jones has transformed from your cousin’s gangly twelve-year-old friend who tries to hit on all the senior girls at the family Labor Day party to the dad flipping burgers and talking incessantly about his grill at that very same party.
Tom Brady’s infamous combine pictures are the gold standard for “it doesn’t matter what you look like as long as you can ball,” and—to be fair—there are plenty of NFL quarterbacks who have succeeded without chiseled physiques. So Jones’ bod isn’t actually important, even if it resembles that of a forty-year-old man.
Experience: A redshirt junior at Bama, Mac Jones is often billed as the most pro-ready of the first round quarterbacks but actually has the same number of career starts (17) as Trey Lance, whose entire sophomore season was cut short (except for one game) due to COVID shutdown. Granted, when you sit behind a Heisman front-runner and top 5 pick, the experience questions aren’t held against you as much (see: Murray, Kyler). But we’re still talking about a single season as a starter.
Injuries: Mac was kept pretty clean by Alabama’s elite offensive line and th only injury I could find was that a sprained ankle kept him out of playing in the Senior Bowl this draft season.
Scouting Report
Offensive Mastery: One of the reasons people don’t mention Jones’ lack of college starts is the level of mastery in which he ran Bama’s offense this past season. While he was certainly helped out by a truly unfair collection of talent around him, Jones showed complete control over the Tide’s playbook—which was NFL-like in breadth and complexity, even if it relied much more on RPOs than a pro team—and it’s easy to see how that will translate to the next level.
While he was often knocked as a game manager, Jones regularly puts the ball in the right place at the right time, and that fundamentally simple—but difficult to find—quality shouldn’t be undervalued in his evaluation. His understanding of the Bama offense was so deep that when Bill O’Brien came in to take over as offensive coordinator after the season, Jones was tasked with helping walk him through the playbook.
Reads the Full Field: While Bama was so stacked that he didn’t often have to go through all his progressions, Jones is lightning-quick scanning through his reads and getting the ball to the right player. He processes faster than any of the other quarterbacks in the class, is clean moving through his progressions, and throws with great anticipation, especially when throwing into windows between the hashes.
As mentioned in the Zach Wilson write-up, anticipation often differentiates starters from busts and is something that some people can learn and others simply never grasp. The fact that Jones already has it is a great sign.
Very good accuracy: When Jones is throwing within the comfort zone of his arm strength, he’s as accurate as any quarterback in this class. He regularly dots receivers in stride on short-to-intermediate routes, shows great touch throwing over underneath defenders, and typically makes work between the hashes look routine.
Despite being a bit gangly, Jones’ throwing motion is compact and efficient, leading to a quick release that can offset some of his arm strength limitations. He does a great job of keeping his mechanics in lockstep on every throw, has fewer eye-popping misses than the other prospects, and can throw down the field successfully when he can get the ball out quick and/or attack the middle of the field. His placement plus release will be an immediate weapon in the RPO and YAC game and will certainly get the attention of Shanahan—who has always prioritized accuracy in evaluating his quarterbacks.
Athleticism: Jones is scaring absolutely no one with his legs, but his athleticism is better than it’s been billed. He’s got quick feet and shows good awareness in the pocket, knowing when to step up or slide from pressure. He’s also much better throwing on the run than he’s given credit for, largely because he does a great job of keeping his eyes downfield and maintaining his upper body mechanics while on the move.
That said, don’t expect the sort of jaw-dropping off-platform throws that a lot of these other guys have shown throughout their film. When Jones really gets off his mark, is crushed for space and/or time, and has to rely more on his pure arm talent than mechanics, things can fall apart in a hurry. But that’s the case for a number of quarterbacks.
Leadership/Character: The Bama program and its players have spoken very highly of Jones, and he definitely gives off the vibe of a “chill bro” who you like to have around the locker room—an image that he continued to foster while chatting up Shanahan at his pro day. However, his record isn’t pristine. As a freshman, Jones was arrested for a DUI on campus after getting into a car accident at two in the morning.
To his credit, Jones has been open about his mistake and says that it changed his life and his life for the better. Since then, there have been no character issues. He finished his undergraduate studies with a 4.0 GPA in three years and played last season while working towards a masters degree. The DUI seems out-of-character enough and Mac Jones is white enough that it hasn’t gotten a ton of pre-draft attention, and while any red flag is worth investigating—and the Niners certainly will do just that—“dumb college kid does dumb college kid thing” is less likely than others to lead to issues down the road.
Subpar Arm Strength: This is Jones’ biggest knock, and it’s a very legitimate one. It’s not just that his arm strength falls well short of the other quarterbacks on this list—they all have absolute hoses—but that his arm strength will be—at best—average by NFL standards. And you see it on film.
It’s been noted that Jones’ completion percentage on deep passes was actually better than any of the other top QBs in this draft, but... Alex Smith also led the NFL in yards per attempt his last year in Kansas City. If you diagnose the deep ball quickly and let it rip early—as Smith did in KC—you can put up good vertical passing stats, but that’s not the same as threatening teams vertically with arm strength. When Jones really had to open up and uncork it down the field, the ball often wound up short, and he was bailed out more than a few times by great playmakers out wide.
Yes, most of these are completions, but they should have been touchdowns. That’s a lot of points left on the field. Granted, some of these are difficult throws, but they’re also throws that everyone else in contention for the No.3 pick has the arm strength to make (some, with regularity). Jones’ lack of arm strength also showed on quick balls outside the hashes and on some crossers when he had to throw across his body.
While he has enough oomph to get the ball to most spots on the field and should have few issues between the hashes, his arm strength is limited enough that it will affect the playbook and what we’d feel comfortable running.
Summary
NFL Comp: Swaggier Kirk Cousins
In the past decade, how many quarterbacks have played at a truly elite level with only average arm talent? I would argue two, and both of them (Brady and Brees) are first-ballot Hall of Famers and two of the smartest and most accurate quarterbacks of all time. Sure, Joe Burrow—last year’s #1 pick and a player who Jones is often compared to—also lacked ideal arm talent, but Burrow was considerably more effective off-script than Jones and had truly elite accuracy. Matt Ryan has also been the comp for people who are high on Jones, although I’d argue Ryan’s arm is better and that he was more accurate for longer through college—despite considerably worse numbers due to situation and supporting cast. A solid-but-not-spectacular Kirk Cousins or a more accurate-but-less-athletic Alex Smith is closer to where I’d guess. If he doesn’t occasionally wilt like Cousins, then is that enough?
While you can have prolonged success as a running back who’s not that fast (Frank Gore) or a receiver who’s not that big (Marvin Harrison), a quarterback’s skillset dictates the entirety of your offensive playbook. Gore didn’t have to run fly sweeps and quick pitches because there was always a backup or gadget player for that. Harrison didn’t need to win jump balls in the end zone because at any given time there were 2-3 other receivers they could line up opposite him to accomplish that task. As we’ve seen with Jimmy, if your quarterback isn’t comfortable (or capable) throwing the deep ball, the deep ball no longer exists in your playbook. If we’re going out of our way to replace Garoppolo, do we want to do so with someone who doesn’t let us expand our playbook?
I would absolutely take Mac Jones after the first round. Depending on who was still on the board, I would maybe take him at 12. Jones’ intelligence and accuracy should allow him to be a long-time player in this league—arm concerns be damned—the question is in what capacity. If the end result is an average-to-above average starter, have we improved from Jimmy G? Because that’s a major draft capital loss for a lateral move—even if Jones has fewer injury problems.
Since we traded four picks—three of them first-rounders—for a chance to move up for a quarterback in a loaded class, I want someone with higher upside whose tools let us open up our offense and better utilize the weapons at our disposal. I want someone who I can envision being a top 5 quarterback in this league for the next decade. If that’s our expectation for Mac Jones then—considering his physical limitations—he has little to no room for error. We’d be banking on him becoming Tom Brady or Drew Brees—the two greatest outliers at the position of the past twenty years—and referencing past outliers to shape current decisions is a surefire way of missing more often than you hit.
I believe that if we take Jones at three he’ll have success in Shanahan’s system. His accuracy, quick decision-making, and smarts should allow him that floor. But for what we gave up to get that pick, the goal should be more than that. If the Niners do wind up with Jones—which every media person seems oddly sure of—then they’d better be absolutely positive he’ll reach his ceiling.
Go Niners 👍🏈
Draftables: Zach Wilson
Soon-to-be the one that got away?
A few weeks into the season I started texting some friends to take a look at this kid from BYU who was creeping into first-round consideration. He was a projected mid-rounder entering the year, but I thought he could be a major value play at the end of the first round (we were only somewhat RAVAGED by injuries at this point so I was still thinking we’d be picking there) and secure the position for the future. I should have known better than to put that out in the world. Wilson is now the consensus No.2 pick to the Jets.
But hey, we’ll take a look at him anyway.
Ht: 6-2
Wt: 214 lbs.
Age: 21
School: BYU
Unofficially nicknamed “The Mormon Manziel”—despite those two concepts being inherently incongruent—the junior signal caller out of BYU earned his moniker due to his exciting free-wheeling style and improvisational abilities.
While his pure arm talent has always been intriguing, Wilson put everything together as a junior after spending the off-season commuting 10 hours from Provo, Utah to Southern California to get coached by former Cougar and QB guru John Beck. The result was 3,692 yards passing, 33TD-3 INT, and a 73.5% completion percentage while leading the Cougars to an 11-1 record and 11th-place finish in the AP Poll.
Stats
Build: Size was a question going into the pre-draft process, but those concerns have largely been alleviated after Wilson measured in at 6-2 214 pounds during his pro day. While he’s a bit slimmer than ideal, he’s plenty big and tall enough to not have his game hindered by his frame.
Experience: Despite entering the draft a year early, Wilson has more starting experience than any of this year’s top-billed quarterbacks not named Trevor Lawrence. A three-year starter with (I think) 28 starts under his belt, Wilson benefits from playing in a creative hybrid offense that employs tons of play action, RPOs, and a nice mix of downfield passes and quick-game. This year—with zero games against Power 5 competitors—Wilson benefited from an incredible offensive line and a talented stable of wideouts with BYU-specific names (Dax Milne, Gunner Romney, Isaac Rex). While some of his wideouts may see NFL rosters, they’re far from elite athletes. So while Wilson’s experience may make him more pro-ready than most, the change in competition level will be drastic.
Injuries: Avert your eyes. Wilson’s been dinged up enough to warrant a legitimate medical eval. He had shoulder surgery after his freshman year, which led to him missing spring ball, then his sophomore year was cut short after 9 games due to an injury to his hand. That said, people don’t seem all that worried, and neither the shoulder nor the hand were of any concern last year, but Wilson will need to protect his body better as he transitions to the NFL.
Scouting Report
Arm Talent: The first thing that pops off Wilson’s film is that he can put the ball anywhere on the field from any location on the field. He’s got an absolute cannon, and his ability to throw off-script from odd angles, different body positions, and a variety of arm slots is unparalleled—besting not only Trevor Lawrence but comparing favorably to the best in the NFL in that category. The ball comes out of his hand with ease, and the improvisational nature of his game pays dividends both on the little plays...
…and massive, Sportscenter-worthy splash plays.
Naturally, that loose and improvisational style of play can come with the occasional drawback. There are times when Wilson can be too cute with the ball (before this year, some would say reckless), but the math is certainly in his favor. He’s gonna hit way more often than he’s gonna miss. It’s also worth noting that the last guy to play this way and get the “reckless” tag was Patrick Mahomes out of Texas Tech. And while Mahomes will have the occasional play like this…
The benefits far outweigh the drawbacks. The same can be said for Wilson. The coaching staff may need to rein him in every once and a while, but they’d much rather have that problem than the other way around.
Accuracy: When Wilson’s on, he’s VERY on, and his best throws are dimes fit into difficult NFL windows. However, the ball gets away from him at times, leading to the occasional whiffs that dot his game tape. It’s not on the deepest throws, nor the most difficult ones, and these misses often seem to be a result of him relying a bit too much on his arm and not enough on his base. His incredible arm talent allows him to throw from all kinds of off-platform positions, but there are times when he’s forced to move in the pocket or simply when his feet aren’t moving with his progressions that the ball comes out funky and inaccurate.
There are lots of different types of accuracy concerns, but if you have to have one, this is one of the better ones to have. There’s nothing foundationally wrong with his stroke that’s holding him back, and it seems like increased attention to detail and some tweaks to his base could smooth out the bumps in a hurry.
Decision Making: Known as a diligent studier of film, Wilson is calm in the pocket and typically diagnoses the defense quickly before hitting the right man. However, you sometimes wonder how he got there (even if the end result works out). It’s always hard to tell when a player is freelancing or making the wrong read without knowing how they’re being coached and because he’s not always moving his feet with his progressions it can be harder to tell what he’s eyeing, but the same relaxed manner that permeates his throwing ability can—at times—make his play look a bit lackadaisical or unstructured. You want some of that “sandlot” style mentality when you’re improvising and extending plays, but a play that’s schemed open—especially from our staff—will be open at a much higher clip than one you have to work off-script to create. There are benefits to your QB being chill. You just don’t want them to be too chill.
To be clear, Wilson’s decision-making is far from a weakness, and a one-on-one film session alongside coaches breaking down his tape would quickly shed light on his thought process. Unless he presents himself in a manner that would make you doubt his ability to continue to improve in this regard, it’s not something I’d worry about.
Processing Speed/Anticipation: One of the greatest differentiators between good college quarterbacks and good pro quarterbacks is their ability to anticipate throws and let go of the ball before receivers are open. Wilson has this ability in spades—regularly releasing the ball before his receivers uncover. This is displayed most regularly in BYU’s healthy dose of back-shoulder fades, but inside and outside the hashes in the quick game as well.
A lot of quarterbacks have flamed out in the NFL because they didn’t anticipate throws in college and were never able to develop that skillset in the pros as the game sped up. The fact that Wilson is already seeing (and trusting) windows before they’re open greatly raises his floor as a player.
Athleticism: Wilson is an underrated athlete, likely falling around the Sam Darnold realm in terms of mobility. He doesn’t seem particularly explosive when moving laterally, but he’s got quick feet climbing the pocket and when he plants his foot in the ground and cuts upfield, he’s got surprising top-end speed (and even some wiggle in the open field).
You’re not gonna pound the rock with him—especially given his smaller frame—but he’s got more than enough athleticism to extend plays with his legs, run for first downs when guys are covered on third-and-short, or pull a handful of read options to keep defenses honest.
Versus Pressure: Wilson had the benefit of playing behind one of the nation’s top offensive lines while facing subpar competition, so there are naturally questions about his ability to slide in the pocket and deliver throws under pressure. However, those questions are based more on the lack of an ideal sample size than any troubling trends. According to PFF, Wilson was sacked only 12.7% of the time when pressured and had the third-highest passing grade under pressure across the entire FBS (with zero turnovers). According to ESPN, his total QBR when pressured (44.0) and when blitzed (94.5) were second in this class—only to Mac Jones. So his performance under pressure has actually been quite strong; he just needs more reps.
There are times when his fundamentals get sloppy under pressure, and as a good athlete but not a great one, Wilson will need to figure out when to bail and when to slide into the pocket against NFL pass rushes. He’ll also learn quickly that he won’t have the speed to routinely break front-shoulder out of the pocket. But his pocket awareness and movement skills already seem strong so there’s no reason to believe he won’t get there with further experience.
Leadership: It’s that time of the year again, where we have to figure out whether rumors of “personality concerns” are a case of boomer scouts not liking “the Hip Hop” or a prospect being too much of a turd to lead a team of grown men. Wilson is the only player in the top five quarterbacks who has even an inkling of “personality concerns,” but they seem much more likely to be nothing than the other way around.
The questions surrounding Wilson revolve around two things: (1) BYU named four offensive captains entering the 2020 season but Wilson was NOT one of them; and (2) this scathing Walter Football write-up from an “anonymous director of scouting from an NFL team”:
"Johnny Manziel comp without the [drugs]. [Wilson] is fun to watch, but is he a 1-year flash in the pan? He's a backyard baller who is fun to watch."
"Someone will grab him in the first [round]. I doubt he gets to the second [round] because once the third quarterback goes, after Lawrence and Fields, there will be a run on them. [Wilson] has character concerns, rich kid who is an entitled brat - uncle owns Jet Blue -, parents are a pain, not a leader, selfish, and he's a know-it-all.
"His positives are that he's super competitive, not to get scared and won't back down, extremely confident, very smart with keen recall and teammates will play for him."
Let’s chat about the captain situation first. People forget that Wilson couldn’t finish his sophomore year due to injury so BYU had an open quarterback competition entering the fall. When the captains were announced, Wilson was excluded, but he was one of eight players selected to the team’s “leadership council.” You can imagine the BYU staff may not have wanted to tip their hand on their starting quarterback—thus ending the competition—by naming Wilson a captain over his competition. Additionally, each of the four players who were chosen as offensive captains were (1) entrenched multi-year starters and (2) guys who had already completed missionary work. I won’t pretend to know how BYU’s captain selection process operates or whether that plays a part, but that means those are like grown men. To me, this is not a red flag.
As for the character bashing, Wilson’s former and current teammates and coaches quickly came to his defense after the Walter Football article was published. When presented with the character concerns, Adam Schefter himself said he was shocked as he’d been calling around and had heard nothing but great things about Wilson. Even local journalists stepped forward, saying that—despite Wilson being the nephew of the founder of Jet Blue—he picked up shifts driving Door Dash to help pay for his QB coaching and—while staying in Southern California with a teammate—he’d show up with ramen noodles, bread, and peanut butter because he didn't want to be a burden on his host family’s food bill.
In short, the character concerns seem more like an old man bitching about avocado toast and less like a real problem. And if there was any inkling that Wilson wasn’t the right personality fit with the Niners, we’d be in a perfect situation to know. Despite any personnel moves that haven’t worked out, Shanahan and Lynch have done a great job of filtering out players who they didn’t think would mesh with the locker room. They’ll get to meet Wilson in person and—if that’s not enough—they have a connect with Wilson’s QB tutor—Beck played for a handful of years under Shanahan in Washington—and Fred Warner’s little brother—who was a defensive captain at BYU this past season. All this to say, the Niners should have a very very complete picture of Wilson as a person by the time the draft rolls around.
Summary
NFL Comp: Mini Mahomes
I’ve yet to dive into the All-22 film of the other dudes in our draft range, but at the moment Wilson is definitely my favorite quarterback in this class. His arm talent and off-schedule ability give him a tremendously high ceiling—with glimpses of Rodgers and Mahomes in his game—while his anticipation and work ethic raises his floor. His strengths are all things you can’t teach while his weaknesses seem imminently fixable with time and good coaching. He may be a tad less consistent than some would expect and the leap from BYU to the NFL will be a big one, but his skill set fits perfectly within Shanahan’s offense and he’d immediately allow us to open things up down the field while creating plus value off of broken plays.
In all likelihood, we won’t get the chance to draft him even if we wanted to. The tea leaves are all pointing to the Jets selecting him No.2 overall, where he’ll join Robert Saleh and Matt LaFleur in New York. But in case they don’t…
Go Niners 👍🏈
The Hunt Begins
It’s gonna be a long month…
It’s gonna be one of these guys (or maybe Mac Jones)
After the absolutely massive trade that sent three first-round picks and a 2022 third rounder to the Dolphins in exchange for the No.3 pick in this month’s draft, the Niners seem dead set on drafting their quarterback of the future. While Jimmy G could still be the dude in 2021 (more on that later), this is the big swing that could define John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan’s tenure with the 49ers. Although drafting Solomon Thomas instead of Patrick Mahomes will likely wind up the biggest net-loss in terms of value during the ShanaLynch era, we at least netted three mid-round picks that year from the trade down. We gained draft capital that would be spent on additional players. Obviously, that’s not the case with this deal.
So… should we have done this?
While I am typically in favor of trading down, I’m not against trading up if it’s for the right player at the right position. Franchise quarterbacks certainly fit that bill. Much has been written about NFL scouts (or scouts in any sports league for that matter) wildly overestimating their ability to judge and evaluate talent and value—thus feeding the argument that you shouldn’t package picks to trade up. While Tom Brady is the obvious example of a missed evaluation, even in today’s age (yes, Brady is old enough that we should be considering the current age different than the era he was drafted in) experts get stuff wrong all the time.
Take this 2014 excerpt from NFL.com’s official scouting report on a defensive tackle out of Pittsburgh:
They thought so little of him, they didn’t even get the aspect ratio of his photo right…
All this seems to point to the idea that batting averages are low, no one knows as much as they think, and the best way to mitigate risk is to accumulate picks and simply take more swings. But while history is littered with failed attempts to trade up for franchise quarterbacks (Jared Goff, Mitch Trubisky, Carson Wentz, RG3), three of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL (Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen) were also acquired through similarly aggressive draft day maneuvers. Ultimately, you have to take your swings at some point, and while this Niners regime has been critiqued at times for being too aggressive in pursuit of “their dudes,” a combination of factors means this could be the right time to make this particular move.
Unless we run into a string of injuries that is even more historically bad than last year’s, we shouldn’t expect to be drafting as high as No.12 in the near future. And certainly not while facing down a quarterback class that has at least four QBs who I’d actually be cool with taking in the first round. For reference, I typically only like somewhere between two and zero quarterbacks in the first round of any given draft class (in fact, from 2013 through 2016 I only really liked two, and neither are currently NFL starters). There have been some talking heads who have critiqued the Niners’ trade as positioning them to pick “the draft’s third-best quarterback,” but I don’t think that argument’s valid. As stated above, quarterback draft talent fluctuates wildly from year-to-year and it doesn’t matter how many good quarterbacks there are in any given draft, it matters that the quarterbacks are good in the first place. According to Peter King of SI, the Niners were encouraged to make this move because they both recognized the talent in this class and saw the slim pickins next year (Sam Howell? Kedan Slovis?). So if the Niners like three (or more) of the top QBs in this draft—which this trade basically confirms—that’s all the more reason to move up in a rare year where draft capital, positional talent, and need at a priority position all coincide with one another.
In summary, I like the move. IF we pick the right guy. Because if we don’t get that right, we’ve screwed ourselves for the foreseeable future. Given the stakes, everything I post for the next month will be about who we pick at No.3, starting with a breakdown of what we’ll likely be looking for in the position.
A new(ish) game
The game has changed dramatically since Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch took over the Niners four years ago, with the shifts the most noticeable (and undeniable) over this past season. As proof that I’m not just an old man yelling at kids to get off his lawn, here’s a five-year breakdown of total accepted penalties, sorted by type.
NFL penalties by season
A 14.1% increase in defensive PI calls over the previous four-year average is a legitimate uptick but nothing compared to the 26.6% decrease in defensive holding or the astronomical 33.4% decrease in offensive holding over that same time period. It’s pretty easy to see why the NFL made these changes: (1) They want to encourage more scoring; and (2) it’s way harder for people to bitch about a missed holding call than the more-obviously-apparent missed PI. But despite not changing the definition of any of these rules in the past year, the NFL’s choice to drastically change how said rules are implemented and officiated has had massive gameplay ramifications.
I’d like to take this time to point out that both these stats and the result of the Chiefs-Bucs Super Bowl have 100% validated my bitching and moaning about the piss-poor officiating from our Super Bowl a year ago. The NFL made a conscious effort to shift away from calling holding of any kind starting in that 2019 Super Bowl and running through this past season, and the Chiefs—who led the league in defensive holding in 2019 and were top 3 in both offensive and defensive holding last year—were the primary benefactor. While the Chiefs likely would have lost the championship this year regardless, the fact that—unlike last year—they were actually called for defensive holding when they committed it, led to a boring blowout of a Super Bowl. While Kansas City was missing their starting tackles this February, the Bucs didn’t have our epic pass rush from two years ago, and if the 2019 Super Bowl was officiated like the 2020 Super Bowl was, I believe we’d have won the game by a similar margin that the Bucs just did.
I’m not bitter, you are.
Anyways, enough stick shaking. While the NFL’s rule changes mean they’re clearly playing favorites in terms of play-style, it’s something we need to take into account moving forward. You gotta play with what you’re dealt with and these officiating decisions force a trickle down effect to both our offensive scheme, and—in turn—what we’re looking for in a young quarterback.
Defensive PI: Up
This obviously benefits an offense that passes more often, but more specifically—as pass interference is a spot foul—it encourages deep ball passing. That means getting a quarterback with the arm strength and touch to be comfortable with down-the-field throws.
Defensive Holding: Down
I’m not sure if allowing defenses to hold specifically benefits one style of offense over another, but—if I were to guess—I’d say it benefits the deep ball. Holding is a penalty that probably (maybe?) is called against short-to-intermediate routes more often because if the call isn’t made on a receiver’s release it’s typically made on their break. On short routes those breaks are harder, with less time for separation, which can elicit a hold-worthy grab. On deep routes you’re looking at speed cuts (or no cuts at all) and the ball is often released before a wideout is open. Any holds at this point become pass interference. The line is murkier on shorter throws.
It’s a theory. It may not be legit.
Offensive Holding: WAY Down
A drop in offensive holding greatly helps the vertical passing game (seeing a trend here?). More time to pass means more time for wideouts to get open. That part’s simple. But it also helps mobile quarterbacks in a way that is a bit less apparent. A QB who can scramble in and out of the pocket and buy time with his feet presents a lot of advantages, but one of the inherent drawbacks with that style of play is that it’s much harder for offensive linemen to pass protect when the strike zone (pocket) keeps moving. By backing up deeper than expected or sprinting out of the pocket, a mobile quarterback changes the rush angles of the defensive line, and—since the OL has no idea what the QB is doing behind them—naturally leads to more holding calls.
Or it did. With holding calls down a third from last year, that drawback is greatly mitigated.
Hitting the Quarterback: WAY Down
While there’s no easy way to determine how many late hit and unnecessary roughness calls are directed towards breathing on quarterbacks on scrambling plays nor how those numbers have increased in recent seasons, our direct experience playing against Kyler and Russ twice a year should give us more than enough anecdotal evidence to the fact that dual-threat quarterbacks are protected more so than ever. That mitigates the second biggest drawback of a dual-threat quarterback: durability concerns.
In recent years there’s been a lot of talk about a study that shows that the rate of injury to a quarterback on scrambling plays (1 in every 91.7 plays) is comparable to the rate of injury when a QB is sacked (1 in every 92.5 plays) and that knockdowns—due in part to the awkwardness of attempting a throw while being hit—actually cause the most quarterback injuries. While those figures are intriguing, that doesn’t change the fact that scrambling inherently creates more total plays—thus increasing injury chances based on volume—and that the rate of being exposed to a hit on a scramble is considerably higher than the rate of being exposed to a hit on a common dropback. That said, the data implies that while dual-threat quarterbacks will still be injured more often than pocket passers, as long as a team is being smart about it, working to protect their quarterback through scheme, and said quarterback is actively trying to preserve their body, the difference in injury risk is lower than traditionally thought.
The league’s emphasis on protecting quarterbacks on these kinds of plays only lessens that risk.
In summary, the way the league is calling the game incentivizes throwing the ball down the field and mitigates the drawbacks—while accenting the benefits—of a quarterback who can scramble and make plays off-schedule. That doesn’t mean we need someone as electric as Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray—throwing ability will always be the more important trait as long as Shanahan is calling the offense—but having good mobility and the arm talent to throw from outside a clean pocket is more important than ever.
It’s also worth noting that the big-play benefits that we get from Shanahan’s system can also lead to the occasional negative play. We know that increased variance is inherent in a zone/stretch scheme, but we can also see it in the passing game. We accept that variance because when the offense is humming it’s near-unstoppable and the average output per play and per game is greater than we’d see if Shanahan chose to play it safe. But with a quarterback who can extend plays and create off-schedule, we’d not only give ourselves the chance at more explosive gains but—perhaps as importantly—lessen the damage of our negative plays. Turning five-yard losses into one-yard losses and three-yard losses into throwaways adds up in a hurry. A quarterback who can extend plays could help raise the floor of our offense as well as the ceiling.
What hasn’t changed
What Shanahan’s looking for in a signal caller has certainly evolved since he took over in 2017 and had his eyes set on Kirk Cousins, but there are a few mainstays of his offense—and the type of quarterback he seems likely to pursue—that remain constant.
Intelligence: The Niners really prioritize intelligence when building their roster and this is especially the case on offense. Shanahan’s scheme is notoriously complicated and difficult to learn—with complex blocking rules and countless minute details that separate his scheme from others’. In the past two years, we’ve seen the Niners grab offensive linemen (Skule, McKivitz) higher than many expected because they emphasized their smarts over pure athletic traits. Those same rules apply to the quarterback position. If a prospect fails on the whiteboard or the staff has any hesitation that he’ll be able to soak up the entirety of the playbook, the Niners will not be taking them.
Accuracy: Even if we start throwing deep more often, we’ll always prioritize accuracy over raw arm strength. Shanahan’s offense requires precise timing and pinpoint passes, and a pass on time and in stride is all the difference when it comes to maximizing the YAC potential of our many offensive weapons. Shanahan would surely like to be able to open the passing attack up more, but not at the expense of our efficiency in creating chunk plays underneath.
Personnel: With Kittle and Juice both on multi-year deals, it’s clear that the Niners are committed to heavy doses of 21 personnel and an emphasis on running the ball effectively to set up play action. While a strong-armed quarterback could lead to more deep shots and a mobile one could present some nice wrinkles running option pulls opposite a Raheem Mostert stretch the other way, the foundation of our offense will remain unchanged—regardless of who we draft. The new addition will be tasked with helping open up and elevate our offense, not force wholesale changes in what we’re doing schematically.
What happens with Jimmy G?
While Jimmy G’s days in San Francisco appear numbered, that doesn’t mean he’ll be gone right away. The idea of Garoppolo starting in 2021 may seem counterintuitive to the move the Niners just made, but when taken in the context of the rest of the off-season, it actually makes a lot of sense.
The Trent Williams and Juice deals are multi-year pacts with high price tags, but the return of guys like Jeff Wilson, DJ Jones, Jason Verrett, Jaquiski Tartt, and K’Waun Williams on one-year deals means the Niners clearly believe they can compete at a high level in 2021. Entrusting a rookie quarterback to run Shanahan’s complex scheme in a year when OTAs and training camp could still be greatly impacted by COVID restrictions would be quite the leap of faith. While there are enough similarities in BYU’s offense and ours that you could see a three-year starter like Zach Wilson starting right away, Justin Fields is moving from an air raid scheme and Trey Lance has only 17 career starts on the D-1AA level. The Niners made their free agent decisions knowing that they could make this blockbuster trade. They didn’t bring so many guys back on one-year deals just to go through the ups and downs of a starting rookie quarterback.
We also have to think about market value. By bringing so many guys back on one-year deals, the Niners are banking on many of them playing their way into bigger and better contracts—whether that’s with the Niners or elsewhere. Jimmy G is basically in the same boat. He’ll want to have a good year to secure a starting role and sizable contract from wherever he winds up next, while the Niners want him to have a good year so that they can take advantage of their current window and maximize his return in any future trade. If Jimmy G absolutely goes off this season then the Niners could be in for a Drew Brees/Philip Rivers-like decision a year from now. If he plays well enough to net a good draft return, then we could be looking at something similar to the Chiefs with Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes. While I’m not saying whoever we draft will be the next Rivers or Mahomes, both of those situations wound up pretty beneficial for all parties involved. It never hurts to have more than one capable quarterback. One of the overlooked factors in evaluating our trade up to No.3 is figuring out what we’re getting for Jimmy G when we move him. Starting him this season would give us the best chance to win and the best chance of increasing that return.
Creating cap space is one of the primary reasons people give for moving Jimmy before the season. While there’s little to no reason to do that this year—as we’re likely done with free agency for the spring—cap space rolls over, we’ve got a lot of backloaded deals, and a net gain of $23.6M in 2022 looks nice as we start extension talks with guys like Warner, Bosa, Samuel, and McGlinchey. There’s validity to this argument, but if the rookie isn’t ready to start or gets injured, how comfortable are you with one of the Joshes (Rosen or Johnson) taking the reins for 2022?
Additional arguments that have been floated include the likes of “you don’t draft someone at No.3 just to sit them for a year” or “the best way for a young quarterback to gain experience is in playing time.” But there are major flaws in both of these claims. None of the three quarterbacks to receive MVP votes this year were starters at the beginning of their rookie seasons and two—Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes—didn’t play a single meaningful snap their first year in the league. The two most successful quarterbacks of the 2018 class—Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson—were meant for the bench but were basically forced onto the field due to necessity midway through their rookie seasons. If the Niners do move on from Garoppolo before the year, it’s because they’ve been offered a handsome package in return and believe they can compete with a rookie starter, not because they feel the need to get Jimmy out of town.
All that said, I still believe that Jimmy G is our most likely starting quarterback to open the 2021 season. Whether he finishes the season as the starter—either due to injury or play by a rookie—is a much harder question. But rest assured, the Niners’ blockbuster trade was done both with the future in mind and the belief that we have a team that can compete in the present.
Next up, we’ll take a deep dive on each of the three (or four) quarterbacks who we could be drafting at No.3.
Go Niners 👍🏈
Running it Back (Again)
this time with feeling
LFG
With the first wave of free agency all but wrapped up, the 49ers have made clear their plan for 2021: run it back, but this time without historically bad injury luck. After a season in which they lost the second-most adjusted games to injury of any team over the past twenty years, Niners brass has doubled down on the idea that their scheme, roster core, and locker room are strong enough that their main priority is retaining its pieces and going for another run.
That kind of thinking often leads to a “pushing the chips in” mentality that aims to win as much as possible during a tight championship window, and—when those championships don’t cascade as expected—often leads to the salary cap hell situations that both the Eagles and the Saints are currently digging themselves out of. It’s a way of thinking that innately prioritizes the short-term over the long-term. That said, the Niners’ situation is considerably different than that of the above-mentioned teams, and the multitude of factors surrounding this roster, its many free agents, and the effect of COVID and a new television deal on the current and future salary cap, make the moves seem poised to help us both in the short- and the long-run.
Contract Restructures
Let’s talk first about something that I’d hinted at in the free agency preview, and that’s the restructuring of the contracts of two big-name players that are coming off injuries who were expected to be cut this off-season.
First off, the Niners restructured the contract of Weston Richburg, knocking his base salary down to the league minimum and creating $6.9M in cap space in the process. As of now, this is not expected to be a Jerick McKinnon situation—where he gives it another shot to get healthy. Richburg is expected to retire, which would add an additional $3.5M in dead money to this year’s cap unless his retirement happens after June 1st (or designated as such)—in which case we can spread that charge over two years.
Unlike Richburg, the Niners seem hopeful that Dee Ford will make it back to the field and play this season. While Ford’s $11.6M injury guarantee as of April 1st made any contract negotiations more complicated, the Niners essentially restructured his deal to spread that $11.6M over two years. Ford’s contract is now a 2- rather than a 3-year deal, with base salaries of $4M and $2.4M, respectively, in 2021 and 2022 and approximately $10M worth of possible incentives during that time. By doing this, the Niners opened up $11.2M in cap space for the 2021 season.
It’s worth noting how the Niners’ approach to contract negotiations differs from other teams. Yes, Richburg doesn’t gain or lose any money in his contract restructure, so as long as he enjoyed his time in SF it makes sense for him to accept a new deal to help out the team’s salary cap. The same can’t be said for Ford. If he wanted to keep his base salary high and had declined a contract restructuring, he’d walk away with the same $11.6M this year that he’s going to make over the next two but would then be free to search out another team to supplement that with a new contract. On the Niners’ side, they could have taken Ford’s contract to salary arbitration, where they likely would have been able to shave off millions from what was owed.
Compare this to how the Raiders have seemingly gone about an off-season in which they’ve attempted to strong-arm guys into taking pay cuts or getting cut—a move which would have sent their best offensive lineman packing for nothing until the Cardinals jumped the free agent line with a last-minute trade offer—and has seemingly left a number of ex-players disgruntled. Instead, the Niners chose to approach Ford with the restructure and he chose to stick in SF and try to get healthy to hit incentives, rather than take the money and search for greener pastures.
While the Niners’ attempts to approach contract negotiations and roster moves in a more transparent and respectful way than some of the more “old school” franchises presents the obvious benefit of rooting for a team that seemingly treats its employees a bit better than most, I truly think it pays dividends on and off the field as well. We see that in how the team competes every week. We saw that with Ford’s restructure this year. We saw that with Raheem Mostert’s restructure last year—where he signed on the dotted line for a new contract after having a heart-to-heart with Kyle Shanahan in which they talked about life and family. And we saw that—in part—with the last-minute deal given to our biggest priority free agent.
Multi-Year Re-Signings
It’s safe to say we did NOT get a discount on Trent Williams’ new contract—which included a last-second call to Shanahan and a record-breaking 6-year/$138M deal that was finalized in the eleventh hour to outbid the Kansas City Chiefs.
That said, Williams’ contract is not as overbearing as it may seem. His initial cap hits are $8.2M (2021) and $14.1M (2022)—meaning his next two years on the books are cheaper than his last one—and the contract has outs after the 2023 and 2025 seasons. If you were to combine his annual salary with the accelerated dead cap figure that would accompany him if cut between 2023 and 2025, the contract is basically a 3-5 year deal @ $20M/year.
As for the sixth year in this extension, it’s really just for show. With a $33M cap hit, zero guaranteed money, and no signing bonus proration, it’s hard to imagine it going through as structured. The entire purpose of that hefty final year is to make Williams’ annual average value (AAV) equal $23.01M, which narrowly edges the Green Bay Packers’ David Bakhtiari ($23.00M) for the highest AAV for any offensive lineman, a hilariously petty addition that Bakhtiari himself has certainly appreciated.
Juice also reset his positional market with his new deal, increasing his already league-best fullback contract by a whopping $0.1M AAV. While he’s basically on a repeat contract four years later, he’ll only be making the veteran minimum in both 2021 and 2022 with cap hits of $2.3M and $3.0M, respectively, and while Juice’s cap hits hover between $6.6 and $7.6M over the last three years of his deal, the Niners—as they did with Williams—have built in a potential out following the 2023 season. After that year (in which he’ll be 32 years old), they can release him and only bite $2.7M in dead cap, with that number declining in each subsequent year.
So why did Juice take this deal? I’m sure familiarity and fit within the Shanahan scheme and the Niners’ locker room were big selling points, but the most tangible financial benefit Juice got from this contract versus the last one (or probably any deal given out to a fullback), is that while last time he had guarantees through his first two seasons, this time he has guarantees through his first three. As a man entering his thirties at a high-impact position, it’s not surprising that the extra year of guaranteed cash was appealing.
The last on the list of returning players to get multi-year extensions, but the first whom the Niners locked up, Emmanuel Moseley secured a two-year/$9.4M deal. A restricted free agent, the Niners could have kept Moseley on a one-year tender but decided he was important enough that they wanted to make him the only corner signed to a multi-year contract. His ability to play either out wide or in the slot likely has something to do with that, as does the fact that the way his contract is structured, his cap hit will be less than that of a second-round RFA tender, which is likely what we would have had to give him to keep him from getting poached.
One-year Deals
In addition to the one-year deals signed by restricted free agents Jeff Wilson, Marcell Harris, and Ross Dwelley, the Niners locked up considerably more veterans than we reasonably could have expected, securing the services of various returning starters who were expected to be out the door. This was likely due to a combination of each of these players’ recent injury history and the depressed COVID cap. Every name below will be looking to have a healthy and productive season in 2021 before departing for a bigger payday somewhere else in 2022.
Jason Verrett is the biggest name returning on one of these deals, as he’s our undisputed No.1 cornerback. A $5.5M contract with $4.5M guaranteed at signing is more than fair if he can stay healthy and produce anything like he did last year.
DJ Jones is back as our starting nose tackle, which means I can play this clip for at least one more season.
While he’s been a bit more durable in every season, Jones’ potential breakout season never really came to fruition last year. It’s hard for nose tackles to get paid, especially when they’re not putting up eye-popping stats. He’s hoping his unique blend of size and quickness will result in a bit more pass rush production to go along with a fully healthy season. His return means that we won’t have to address nose tackle early in the draft and/or throw Darrion Daniels into the fire before he’s ready.
K’Waun Williams tested the waters and took some visits, but ultimately re-signed as well, bringing back our third starting corner from last year’s unit (Sherman technically started, but due to injury it’s hard to say he was one of our core three in 2020). The salaries haven’t caught up to the importance of nickel corners in modern-day defenses, and whenever the cornerback market is down—like due to a COVID cap—the nickel market plummets. K’Waun played 13 or more games in five of his past six seasons before injuries limited him to eight in 2020. Like the others, he’s looking to leverage a healthy year into one last multi-year contract in 2022.
On the depth side of things, Jordan Willis was brought back on a one-year deal. He flashed a bit after the trade from the Bengals last year and while he was far from a showstopper, he certainly has enough promise to bring back for another go-around. They’ll be hoping that a year in their off-season program will help him.
Finally—and most surprisingly—Jaquiski Tartt was brought back for another go as well. With Tarvarius Moore having one year left on his rookie deal, the Niners bringing safety Tavon Wilson in from the Colts, and Jimmie Ward playing better last year in a role that saw him closer to the LOS as more of a versatile nickel/box safety, it’s hard to see where Tartt fits in. In particular, what does this mean for Moore and his future on the team beyond this season? All that said, we won’t turn down defensive versatility, and Tartt is clearly a hell of a player when he’s healthy.
While retaining so many of our aging veterans is certainly a testament to Shanahan and Lynch’s faith in and emphasis on locker room dynamics, retaining this many players who are either injury prone, on the wrong side of thirty, or both, is often a troubling sign of a team showing too much loyalty in players who are presenting diminishing returns. That said, this is a very unique case.
The COVID cap has depreciated the value of many of the Niners’ free agents, meaning the team had the choice of either letting them walk for pennies at the bottom of their value or retain them in hopes that their stocks will rebound in time for a massive spike in the cap in 2022. The main benefit for a franchise of having nearly 40 free agents is that we expected to be due for some compensation picks when some of those free agents signed elsewhere. With the league’s sunken cap preventing those contracts from breaching the threshold required for comp picks, there would have been no compensation if any of these players had walked. So if the alternative is having veteran players who have performed well signing one-year deals somewhere else—giving their new team either a chance at a massive bargain or a chance to let the player walk the next year and accrue comp picks in return—then why not bring them back to the Niners? While there’s marginal risk that these players either can’t stay on the field, that their play dips, or that their presence stunts the growth of younger players behind them, the potential benefits far outweigh those concerns. In simplest terms, it’s the Niners following the buy-low, sell-high train of thought.
New Faces
While the Niners weren’t overflowing with cap space, the restructuring of Richburg and Ford’s contracts gave them some wiggle room to bring in a few moderately priced additions—some of whom could have major roles in 2021.
Samson Ebukam comes over from the Rams, and—as evidenced by the percentile marks of his pre-draft testing results—he absolutely fits the bill as an athletic freak on the edge.
Ebukam’s incredible pro day really launched him up draft boards and eventually got him selected in the fourth round by the Rams. From the same Eastern Washington class that had Cooper Kupp and Kendrick Bourne, Ebukam was mostly a rotational linebacker for the Rams and played most-often in a two-point stance. That will change with the Niners.
With his 4.50 speed and an insane 1.53 10-yard split, the Niners will put Ebukam on the edge with his hand on the ground and hope that he can emulate some of the speed rush that Dee Ford brought opposite a (hopefully) healthy Bosa. In what may have been their first-ever call, Kocurek already told him to work on his first-step get-off (it often doesn’t match his athleticism, but out of a two-point it’s hard to judge how much of that is him and how much is schematic fit), and he will—at least—be expected to be a primary player in the Niners’ turbo packages. If he can be more than that, then that’s icing on the cake.
It’s worth noting that Ebukam is far from a super athletic dude with no production. Despite playing mostly as a rotational player with the Rams, he ranked 36th out of 111 edge rushers in PFF’s pass rush productivity metric and the Niners hope Ebukam can become their Shaq Barrett—a talented edge rusher who was buried behind elder players in a scheme fit that wasn’t perfect and emerges as a plus performer on a new squad.
On the offensive side, Alex Mack was brought in to shore up the interior line. Long one of—if not the singular—best center in football, Mack played under Shanahan in Cleveland and then—after Shanahan’s endorsement—was brought in to the Falcons with a hefty contract. Now he is 35 and his play has dipped, but he’ll surely be motivated/look better playing under Shanahan than with the dregs of the Falcons offense, and our hope is that he still has some top-10 play left in him. The Niners seem to be banking heavily on that because Mack’s deal—which was originally believed to be a one-year contract—is actually a three-year pact that averages nearly $5M/year. While the Niners have dialed his cap figure appropriately ($3M in 2021) and can save $4.3M off the cap by releasing him in 2022 if age has taken its toll, this isn’t a “ghost year” deal. They’d be taking on some dead cap even with the savings.
While Mack’s age and recent dip in production may cause some worry, the Niners have had interior pass protection issues for the majority of the past year and a half and there’s a very valid argument that if we were better in that regard we would have won the Super Bowl in 2019. At the very least, Mack will improve those issues dramatically and allow Daniel Brunskill to commit to learning right guard. Mack will get the protection calls down and get people in the right position, and if the Niners still tap an interior lineman in the middle rounds of the draft, he can be an excellent tutor for them.
Getting much less pub but a very exciting pickup in his own right is interior lineman Zach Kerr. A nose tackle in the “too quick to be this big” DJ Jones mold, Kerr was a rotational piece for the Panthers last year but his thirteen pressures, six QB knockdowns and two sacks are pretty impressive numbers given his role. Over nearly 400 snaps, he was actually graded by PFF as the 10th best interior lineman in the league (out of 125 qualifiers). I can’t say I’ve watched him play a ton, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Kerr—on a cheap one-year contract—is next season’s Kerry Hyder.
On the back end of the roster, the Niners picked up Tavon Wilson, a multi-year starter for the Lions and—most previously—a reserve for the Colts. With Ward, Tartt, and Moore, Wilson is certainly a depth addition who will likely see a lot of run on special teams. The same goes for wide receiver Trent Sherfield from the Cardinals. Long-time special teams standout Mark Nzeocha was let go, and those new additions are likely expected to step into his place.
What does it mean for 2021?
While we’re relying heavily on one-year deals at crucial positions, locking up so many of our own and bringing in key additions means that we can enter the draft without our hand being forced. If we’d lost Trent Williams we’d likely need to go with an offensive lineman early. If we hadn’t locked up Verrett, the same could easily be said for cornerback. Patching up those holes, even if some of the patches are short-term, means that we have draft flexibility. We’d certainly be smart to still address those two positions (McGlinchey’s contract is ending shortly and Verrett is on a one-year deal) as well as others, but we are no longer forced into zeroing in on a single position and reaching for need over value.
But the many deals we gave out—and in particular Trent Williams’—point to a major change in the future and one that has basically been confirmed with the Niners trading up to the No.3 pick in the draft just this morning. The Niners have backloaded their contracts to coincide with the expected spike in cap space in 2022 and on, but they’ll still need to save somewhere in order to retain their young core for the foreseeable future. Those savings are almost certainly to happen at quarterback. We should expect the Niners to be starting a QB on a rookie contract by 2022 (at the latest). After the trade this morning, we’re likely to find out who that quarterback will be by the end of April.
More on that next time.
Go Niners 👍🏈
QB Carousel 2021
the twittersphere has opinions
![TLDR; here’s your likely starting QB in 2021 [Kyle Terada / USA Today]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1616044058601-MZM65INQI5BDQ94GATFT/jimmy+g.jpeg)
TLDR; here’s your likely starting QB in 2021 [Kyle Terada / USA Today]
Despite it being a COVID cap year with a draft class that is loaded at the position, this off-season has seen more quarterback movement than any in recent memory. With so much of our fanbase clamoring for change at QB, and John Lynch himself admitting that—while Jimmy will be our starter in 2021—they’ll at least try and shore up the backup spot to insulate themselves from injury, I figured it would be a good time to take a look at the moves made this off-season, the prices that were paid to obtain new quarterbacks, and a few potential routes the Niners could go to add talent to the position group.
Market-Setters
![Gangly -> Stocky [Getty Images]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1616042842372-AMSYSY14IHAMYXS6WY9C/Stafford+Goff.jpeg)
Gangly -> Stocky [Getty Images]
As discussed ad nauseam, changes in rules and advances in offensive schemes have made the quarterback position more important than ever before and—unsurprisingly—the price tag that comes with obtaining a top-flight QB has mirrored that shift. If we’re excluding the draft—which we’ll get to later—there is no reliably cheap way of obtaining an above-replacement level quarterback in the NFL, and many teams have already learned that this spring.
Jared Goff to the Lions
Traded: Matthew Stafford
Received: 2021 third-round pick, 2022 and 2023 first-round picks
It’s hard to imagine Goff doing all that well in Detroit, whose sixty-year rebuild continues under the guidance of a new coach already internet famous for his likeness to The Dude and his cannibalistic introductory press conference. But while Dan Campbell’s track record is short enough that it’s hard to tell what will come of his tenure, it’ll be interesting to see what they do offensively. Seeing as he was the former tight ends coach for New Orleans and brought along one of their defensive assistants to become the DC, the clear hope is that the Lions become “The Saints Midwest,” but a quick passing game based on lightning-fast progressions isn’t exactly where Goff has excelled on the NFL level.
Realistically, this trade wasn’t about Goff though. Taking on a massive contract from a franchise who seemingly hates first-round picks was the only way the Lions could net two first rounders for their former prodigal son, and this move points even clearer to a rebuild. In terms of draft capital, this was absolutely as good as they could do. But in committing to an additional first-round pick they’ve also committed to locking up salary space that could be going to other foundational positions. His 2021 salary is fully guaranteed as of tomorrow, and cutting him would create massive cap hits of $43.5M in 2021 or $15.5M in 2022. Even if the Lions draft a quarterback in the top ten of this April’s draft, they’ll be paying Goff’s salary through 2022 at least—which could wind up meaning they’ll be doling out cash for two years of a lame duck quarterback.
Matthew Stafford to the Rams
Traded: Goff, 2021 third round-pick, 2022 and 2023 first-round picks
Received: Stafford
On the flip side is a Rams team that’s going all-in on chasing their current championship window. I’m a Stafford fan, and the fact that the Rams were ditching Goff’s contract in this trade made compensation nearly impossible to predict, but this seemed like an overpay. However, if Stafford actually puts the Rams over the top, the price will obviously be worth it. While on paper they now seem comparable to the Bucs as the team-to-beat in the NFC, a few legitimate questions remain.
First off, can they repeat their defensive success from 2020? In the NFL, elite-level defense is much harder to replicate year-to-year than offense, and the Rams have lost both their whiz kid DC to the team across town and their unoriginally-named-but-underrated safety John Johnson to the Browns this off-season. Secondly, there was always a lazy narrative that any time the Rams offense did poorly it was Goff’s fault and any successes were because of McVay. With Stafford in the fold, it’ll be tough for McVay to continue skirting the criticism that has mostly been heaped on his former quarterback the past four years. I’ve regularly stated that I believe the Rams’ more-simplistic version of our offense gives it a solid floor but limits their high-end against strong defenses, especially those who have time to prepare. Perhaps Stafford will allow them to break through that ceiling. Perhaps it’s just the deal that they’re comfortable with, hoping instead to win on the back of a more balanced squad.
Carson Wentz to the Colts
Traded: 2021 third-round pick, 2022 conditional second-round pick (likely first-rounder)
Received: Wentz
I’d also consider this an overpay, in part because of how little leverage the Eagles possessed. Despite making a head coaching change in part with hopes of salvaging Wentz’s Eagles tenure, it was made abundantly clear early-on in this offseason that the former signal-caller still wanted out. With that information out in the open and Wentz’s contract bonus schedule including $59M(!) in dead cap money if the Eagles couldn’t move him by tomorrow (March 19th) but wanted to let him go, they should have had little-to-no bargaining power in trade negotiations. Sure, the Eagles could have dug in and refused to move Wentz, but with one of the worst cap situations in the league and Wentz holding nearly $35M in cap space, the Eagles never would have risked gutting their team to keep a player who didn’t want to be there and who could sit out the season and just demand a trade again the year after.
There’s also the incestual coaching connections that make this an even weirder deal. The Colts’ former OC just went to the Eagles in hopes of retaining Wentz with the exact same scheme that the Colts run, but now the Eagles are willing to part with Wentz? Sure, as discussed above, he was demanding a trade, but… you have to get at least a sense that you’re buying rotten goods here. Wentz is leaving a system to go to the same system and the Colts are trading with a guy who knows their team just as well as they do. It’s all a little weird.
All that said, while the compensation was too much in my mind, I actually think this is the best fit for both Wentz and the Colts—who are ripe with cap money and teetering on the edge of true contender status. If anyone can salvage Wentz its Frank Reich, who has done a marvelous job with quarterbacks since taking over in Indy and was the primary coach behind Wentz’s near-MVP season. If you’re the Colts you can tell yourself that Wentz can become that same player and that he’s the missing piece that they’ve been looking for while overlooking the fact that his MVP season included a lot of unrepeatable off-schedule metrics, that he’s clearly digressed since then, and that the Eagles as a team always played much better and harder when anyone else was under center. The fit is great, the player-coach combo does have a real shot, but I wouldn’t have parted with more than a second-rounder for Wentz given the circumstances.
Dak Prescott re-signed with Cowboys
Traded: Cap space
Received: Jerry Jones’ bragging rights
The Cowboys’ injured signal-caller signed a four-year $160M deal with a league-record $95M guaranteed at-signing. Needless to say, the sticker shock’s pretty unreal here, especially for a quarterback coming off a major leg injury. While I’m not sure Dak is a truly elite quarterback, he was playing the best ball of his life (other than turnovers) in the first four games of the season and the Cowboys’ offense fell-off dramatically once he was injured. Some knock him for failing to win more games, but we’ve heard that before with (checks notes) literally every single Cowboys quarterback since Troy Aikman. Despite the tremendous amount of talent on offense, winning big with the Cowboys has proven to be very difficult over the past two decades and I’m not sure that equating Prescott with that losing is any fairer than doing the same with Stafford and the Lions. Ultimately, the Cowboys gonna Cowboys until further notice.
Dak seems like a good dude and a strong locker room presence on a team that likely needs one. I’m probably higher on him than most, but would I pay this much money for his services? Absolutely not, especially since he’s a mobile player coming off a gruesome leg injury. But the longer this contract saga went on, the more a big-ass deal became apparent. This was a Jerry Jones special. At some point, the narrative around their negotiations became a personal challenge of contract chicken and a threat to Jones’ perceived image of himself as someone who treats his players right. The best way to get the super rich—especially those like Jerry Jones—to do exactly what you want them to do is to say that they won’t do exactly that. It was almost comical how clearly and cleanly that unfolded here. Good for Dak for getting paid.
Trade Candidates
Watson, every time he hears Cal McNair talk
If we’re giving up genuine draft capital for a veteran signal-caller, I would hope it’s for someone who we believe is our starter as soon as this year. I won’t spend a lot of time on this category because none of the options seem all that likely (but we can sure as hell hope for one of them in particular to come to fruition).
Teddy Bridgewater: We apparently kicked the tires here, but not sure where this gets us. I don’t actually think Bridgewater is better than Jimmy G and—despite playing all of last season—he’s just as injury-prone. The idea of giving up draft capital for him is questionable at best.
Sam Darnold: I don’t hate Darnold and think he could be in line for the patented post-Adam Gase leap, wherever he winds up. That said, there are two major red flags to acquiring him: (A) he’s just been poorly coached for too long and has too many bad habits to fix at this point or (B) he’s not yet beyond repair but that’s in part because he’s missed so many games due to injury that he hasn’t had the playing time to cement those issues. Obviously, if either (or both) of those red flags prove legitimate, obtaining Darnold would be a terrible move despite his mobility, improvisational skills, and youth (23).
It’s also worth noting that—although Darnold is very young—the idea of saving on a “rookie contract” depreciates greatly over time. People like to pretend like we’d still be saving a ton of money rolling out Darnold instead of Jimmy G, but the money we’d save would be minimal. In 2021, the Jets will absorb his signing bonus so he’d cost a meager $4.7M against the cap, but in 2022—his fifth-year option year—he’d cost $18.9M, and after that he is either a big enough upgrade that we dime him out or things didn’t work out and we gave up draft capital.
There’d also be some Carson Wentz-Colts vibes that would make this a bit tricky. If the Jets staff—who have largely come over from the Niners and that includes our former passing game coordinator—gets a close look at Darnold but don’t like him as a fit, then why should we? In a world where we’re much more desperate and Jimmy G was NOT returning in 2021, I’d be more interested in a trade for the potential of Darnold. But in this world, where Darnold would come over as a backup tasked with winning the job this year or walking/becoming the NFL’s most expensive backup (other than Nick Foles) in 2022, it’s hard to come to a compensation amount that would seem intriguing for both parties.
Russell Wilson: Not happening. Even if he gets traded there’s no way it’s in-division.
Deshaun Watson: Clearly the best candidate on the board, there has arguably never been a quarterback this young, proven, and talented who has been available for trade. And to this point that remains true because the Texans have—at least publicly—nixed any and all thought of trading their franchise quarterback.
Deshaun has teased us with social media movements and—most recently—leaked reports that his desired destination is either the 49ers or Broncos. While a move will seem unlikely until it actually happens, there are a few factors that give Watson some leverage here. He’s young and well-compensated enough that he can afford to sit out this season if he wishes, the amount of punishment he’s taken throughout the years could actually help lengthen his career with time off, and the trade clause in his contract means that he won’t be going anywhere he doesn’t want to. If shit were to truly hit the fan and Houston’s recent missteps and longstanding record of old white dudes being old white dudes has led Watson to force their hand into a trade, a move could happen anytime between the days leading up to the draft and after the 2021 season. Or, it might not happen at all.
For now, we can only dream.
UPDATE: And now there are multiple lawsuits pending against Watson, so… 😬
Veteran Backups
![Not gonna happen but at least I get to post this photo [Marcio Jose Sanchez / AP Photo]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1616043867689-RF35HI4GLEH91GGNACFK/alex+smith+TD.jpg)
Not gonna happen but at least I get to post this photo [Marcio Jose Sanchez / AP Photo]
There is almost zero chance we don’t make a change at the backup position this off-season and John Lynch has basically said as much publicly. We could draft someone high to sit for a year, draft someone lower to sit for (at least) a year, and/or pickup a veteran backup option. We’ve all seen how we falter with sketchy play behind center and how even replacement-level QB play can make a drastic difference (and almost certainly would have gotten us into the playoffs this year despite all the other injuries).
While we can always add one on the cheap later, if the Niners DO NOT add a veteran backup entering the draft that’s as clear a sign as any that their plan A would be to address the position with a rookie. But if the Niners DO add a veteran QB, I don’t think that shuts the door on them drafting another QB anyways. Many backup QBs get brought in on short-term deals, and unless we’re planning to trade up for a guy who can play significant snaps right away, having a veteran backup in addition to a rookie would provide injury assurance if Jimmy were to go down, add another veteran voice in the QB room to help a rookie, and give the Niners flexibility on taking a “redshirt” quarterback come April. Plus, the Niners like to roster three quarterbacks and make one inactive on gamedays anyways.
NOTE: These names have been flying off the shelves, so almost all of them are no longer available. Regardless, I’ll provide my takes below.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: SIGNED WITH RACIAL SLURS. Fitzmagic is a clear stop-gap/bridge/mentor type for a younger quarterback who still has the juice to start a few games if need be. If we were all-in on drafting someone (like the Slurs clearly are) then this pickup would work nicely, but with a veteran quarterback on roster who would start over him, the pairing doesn’t make a ton of sense for a dude who wants to start a few more games before he retires.
Alex Smith: While nostalgia looms, Smith wouldn’t be a great fit for many of the same reasons his replacement in Washington isn’t. While Smith is known as one of the best locker room presences and veteran tutors for rookie quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes’ dad has said the lessons his son learned under Smith as a rookie were invaluable to getting him to where he is now), Smith is likely looking for a starting position and not a locker room where he is a second or potentially third option.
Jameis Winston: No.
Mitchell Trubisky: This is a name that’s only been floated around recently and the fit is interesting. As easy as it’s been to poke holes in Trubisky’s game over his first four years in the league, he finished last year (sort of) strong after an early-season benching and certainly has physical tools. Do I think he’s a long-term starter in this league who has just started turning the corner? No, not really. Would I take him on a moderately-priced backup deal? Sure, why not. But the price tag of those two roles varies dramatically and where he believes he falls on that spectrum could write him off as a candidate before any legitimate talks.
Jacoby Brissett: SIGNED WITH DOLPHINS. Believe it or not, Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy G both have the same number of career NFL starts (32) and bringing in Jimmy’s former backup would mean adding a smart, well-liked, and athletic quarterback who can more than hold his own in spot starts if needed. While he’s young and has more high-end potential than Fitzpatrick or Smith, I don’t really see Brissett as a long-term starter in this league, particularly in Shanahan’s offense. This is mainly because—despite playing for two very quarterback friendly offenses in the Patriots and the Colts—Brissett has never been particularly accurate, completing just under 60% of his throws in his career.
Brissett’s physical skillset may align better with a handful of rookie signal callers who we could target (Wilson/Lance/Fields), which makes the idea of signing him more intriguing, but that kind of roster move would make little sense. Next season, the Niners would surely rather start Jimmy G over a veteran or rookie in their first year in the offense, and even if the Niners were to shift to more mobile QB sets, they would have no idea who is available in the draft to fit that mold until after the initial free agency period—when Brissett will surely be signed.
Andy Dalton: SIGNED WITH BEARS (to start?). Probably the most likely of the candidates, Dalton should have more left in the tank than his first snaps with the Cowboys indicated. Once he got his sea legs under him, he was very much a lesser version of what he’s been for the majority of his career. As a guy who’s just old enough (33) and average enough to perhaps be settling into a sustained backup role, a Dalton signing would give a reliable veteran presence behind Jimmy G who could maintain that backup role (whether it’s behind Jimmy G or a younger player) for years to come.
Draft Options
Running over defenders and up draft boards
It’s rare that I’m all that interested in more than one or two quarterbacks in any given draft class. In fact, there was a four-year span in the mid-2010’s where I only liked one or two quarterbacks total. But this year seems like a potentially massive outlier. While I won’t pretend that all of these quarterbacks will be good or that they’ll all be drafted high, we could easily see five or even six signal callers taken in the first round. I’ll try to go in-depth on these guys later (as well as take a look at some potential later-round pickups), but until I can sit down and watch some film, here are my initial thoughts.
Trevor Lawrence: He’s going #1. We’re not getting him and there’s not even a reason to talk about him.
Zach Wilson: I’m a big fan and am bummed that his stock seems to have skyrocketed since I made my interest in him public back in September. He’s got tremendous arm talent, makes plays off-script, throws from an absurd number of arm slots with ease and is said to be a hard worker who is diligent in the film room. While it seems like most people have him as the #2 QB in this draft, there’s still a chance I guess.
Justin Fields: Super productive player with high potential, but I have some concerns. He’s seems to be a really good team leader—which already separates him from former Buckeye Dwayne Haskins—but like Haskins, he plays in a scheme that runs very few concepts and throws to wide open five star wideouts. Fields’ legs may actually be more useful in the NFL—he’s bigger and faster than people think—and he showed great accuracy last year, but his arm talent is a notch below the rest of this tier and he hasn’t yet shown the ability to regularly process quickly and anticipate throws. That can often be a dealbreaker in the NFL.
Trey Lance: Basically a crypto stock, Lance will only be twenty at the time of the draft yet could have the best physical tools of any QB in this draft. However, his experience red flags are basically unheard of. He was insanely productive in just a single redshirt freshman year as a starting quarterback (his sophomore year was COVID canceled except for one game), winning every game he started, scoring 42 touchdowns and throwing zero picks despite hucking the ball down the field a lot, winning the D-1AA Heisman, and being named the MVP of the national championship. The downside? He didn’t play against a single D-1A opponent and has 17 career starts. At 6’4 225 pounds with an absolute cannon for an arm, a GPS-timed top speed comparable to many wideouts, and a reputation as a hard worker, he’s my favorite realistic target in this draft IF the Niners are impressed by him in the interview process. Do I understand the significant bust potential? Yes.
Mac Jones: Even with my reservations with Fields, I’d be totally cool with the Niners drafting any of the above names in the first round. I can’t say the same for Mac Jones. I’ve seen enough Bama quarterbacks to know not to jump on this hype train. While I like Jones more so than any former Tide QB not named Tua, the protection, supporting cast, and scheme he ran in college meant he was rarely pressured or tasked with NFL throws. For instance, in the national championship game I only saw one throw that stuck out based on its NFL traits—where Jones quickly went through his progressions to find an open man in the endzone on a shortened field—yet Jones threw for 464 yards and five scores in that game. There are some empty calories in those stats. I understand that Tom Brady and Joe Montana both came out of college without the best arm talent and have made themselves into first-ballot HOF’ers, but the physical traits alone would make me pass on Jones in the first round and I wouldn’t be shocked if his rising stock is more of a push from “draft pundits” than actual NFL personnel types.
As for now—despite the clamoring of much social media—it’s still incredibly likely that the Niners starting quarterback in 2021 is Jimmy Garoppolo. If he can stay healthy, that’s something I am perfectly fine with. But if he can’t, we should have better options than we did last season.
Go Niners 👍🏈