Free Agency Bonanza 2021

All un-signed [Michael Zagaris / Getty Images]

With the NFL’s tampering period just a week away, it’s time to dust off the old blog and jump back into all things Niners. This is a fairly huge off-season for both the immediate future and the Niners’ status in the NFL. The injury woes of last year were truly unprecedented so most knowledgable fans should be willing to give the Niners a mulligan, but truly elite franchises don’t have many down years, and if the Niners want to cement themselves among the NFL’s best they need a rebound year in a big way. 

While the past two years have featured nearly identical rosters, this year will feature large-scale turnover. Given our cap space we should NOT be expected to be major players on the open market, but we have 38 free agents to make decisions on and an expected ten draft picks come April. While the majority of our core will remain in place, the Niners’ highly-lauded locker room dynamic will be put to its greatest test in 2021.

After our Super Bowl run in 2019 we all knew what Lynch/Shanahan had built. Now comes the test of whether or not they can maintain it.

COVID Cap

Amazingly enough, the NFL hasn’t actually settled on their 2021 salary cap yet (end-of-year calculations are ongoing), but they announced mid-February that the 2021 salary cap floor will be $180 million—$18M less than last year’s cap but $5M more than the worst-case projection entering the season. 

In terms of available cap space, the Niners are technically around the middle-of-the-pack—with Spotrac estimating we have about $27.7M to work with. That said, given our large number of free agents it would be more accurate to put us more in the bottom third/quarter in terms of usable cap space. We’re far from the Eagles—who even after cutting Wentz loose are currently $39M OVER the cap—or the Saints—whose all-in push during Drew Brees’ final years has them $59M OVER—but the purse strings will be tight. Thus, nearly the entirety of this writeup will be focused on our own free agents, NOT outside additions.

Big-Ass Extension Watch

There are mainstays like Laken Tomlinson who may get their contracts restructured to free up more cap space, but there’s only one player expected to get a massive extension this off-season: Fred Warner.

After flashing as a rookie with lots of promise, becoming a team leader and coverage dynamo as a sophomore, and putting the whole package together in his third year in the league, Warner was—by any and all metrics—one of the best linebackers in the country last season. He led the team in tackles, fumble recoveries, and interceptions, was an AP First-Team All-Pro selection and was PFF’s highest-graded off-ball linebacker by a pretty considerable margin.

Since he was a third-round pick in 2018, that means he has one more year on his rookie deal and is now capable of negotiating a big-time extension. As a vocal team leader who was as important as anyone holding the squad together during an injury-ravaged season, he has more than earned it.

At the moment, Warner is set to count $3.4M against the cap, a massive bargain that was made only slightly less egregious based on built-in rookie performance scaling (his 2020 cap was $844K). Like Kittle last year, Warner’s later round bargain-basement salary means it’s near impossible to save cap space in the short term but the deal will certainly be backloaded to account for the massive cap spike next year.

The highest-paid off-ball linebackers in the league are currently Bobby Wagner ($18M/yr), CJ Moseley ($17.5M), and Zach Cunningham ($14.5M/yr). The first two deals were signed in 2019, while Cunningham’s was signed last year. Since Warner won’t turn 25 until midway through next season and already has a First-Team All-Pro nod under his belt, his combination of youth and lack of weaknesses means we shouldn’t be expecting a discount. By the time next season starts, he will more than likely be the highest-paid off-ball linebacker in the NFL.

Potential Cuts

There are two big names rumored to be on the chopping block, so let’s get their names out of the way now. David Lombardi of the The Athletic wrote a great in-depth article about these very two and their salary ramifications, but I’ll try and keep it short here.

Since joining the Niners in 2018, Weston Richburg has played in 28 of 48 possible regular season games. In 2018—when he played 15 games—he was largely ineffective after an early season injury. In 2019, he started out well before going down in week 14. He hasn’t suited up since, missing the entirety of 2020 and leaving a gaping hole along the interior of the OL that we were regularly reminded of throughout the season.

When Richburg was signed, he was given one of the wealthiest deals for a center in league history, but the majority of his guarantees wrapped up last season. He’s currently looking at a $11.5M cap hit in 2021 and a $12.6M hit in 2022, but if we let him go we’d only be on the hook for $7M total—his initial signing bonus prorated over his last two years. So letting him go would result in $4.5M in cap savings.

The second likely cut is Dee Ford, who was electric playing a fraction of snaps last year and a major catalyst to our defensive success in 2019. While he entered the year supposedly healthier than ever, he was shelved for the season with a neck/back injury after only the first week—making his availability in 2021 highly questionable regardless of the Niners’ decision on whether or not to keep him. Ford has a $20.1M cap hit for this upcoming season, and $21.8M hits for the next two. If we cut him, we’d be on the hook for the rest of his signing bonus, thus taking a $14.4M hit and freeing up $7.8M in cap space. But there is one major caveat to that.

This is probably as good a time as ever to break the bad news on Ford’s contract. While his contract—like many that Paraag Marathe and the Niners structure—features team-friendly opt out seasons on the back end of the deal, there’s a very unfortunate catch. Despite Ford’s history of injury concerns, his contract has hefty injury guarantees built-in through 2021. 

In short, if Ford CAN pass a physical by April 1st, we can release him for generic non-injury reasons and save $7.8M off our cap. If he CANNOT pass a physical by April 1st, his injury guarantees kick in and we’re on the hook for an additional $11.8M in dead cap. Meaning, in that situation we’d actually be losing $5.9M in cap space by cutting him. While there is always the possibility—with either Richburg or Ford—to designate them as a post-June 1st cut and prorate the dead cap hit over two years, that’s just kicking the can down the road.

While there are lots of fans who have grown frustrated with Ford and would like to see him gone, he’s been highly effective when available. Depending on how the rest of free agency and the draft shakes out, the best route for Ford could be to restructure his contract. You obviously can’t take guaranteed money off of a contract or the cap—you can only move it around. But—if Ford is amenable—converting his injury guarantee to a signing bonus and drastically reducing his base salary (ala Jerick McKinnon) could provide him time to rehab and potentially be a contributor again while lessening the blow on our salary cap.

Regardless of what happens with Richburg and Ford, it’s highly unlikely that either return to the Niners on their current deals. This is an area where the Niners can—and likely will—free up some cap space. The question is how much and what kind of holes would those moves make in our roster.

Already Signed

The Niners have already started re-signing some players, but given the cap situation, they’ve been limited to smaller deals—mostly with guys filling out the backend of the roster. That means a handful of these re-signings have been with Exclusive Rights Free Agents—young guys with zero, one, or two accrued seasons in the league who aren’t really free agents at all because the Niners can lock them up on the league minimum—and Restricted Free Agents—guys with three accrued seasons who can be offered a tender but can negotiate with other teams (if signed, the Niners can receive draft compensation).

Jeff Wilson was given a 1-year deal, which is the biggest move of note so far. I don’t think I’m the only one who believes the Raheem Mostert / Wilson backfield combo is our most productive and dangerous rotation. While both have dealt with injuries in the past, they both run very hard and fit the scheme perfectly. I know we like to believe that the Shanahan/Bobby Turner duo can create running backs out of thin air, but locking up Wilson is a less-publicized but crucial move entering this off-season. He’ll count just over $2 million against the cap—basically, he’s on a slightly discounted version of the lowest possible RFA tender in exchange for some guaranteed cash. That’s less than the second-round tender that we gave Matt Breida last year for a player who is currently much more productive (although we likely had aspirations of trading Breida when we made that tender). It’s a good deal.

The Niners followed that up with similar deals with Ross Dwelley and Marcell Harris just before the weekend. By committing to one-year deals, the Niners lock them into the roster but keep the cost lower than the lowest possible RFA tender—giving them cap flexibility, locking in contributors, and assuring each of them some guaranteed cash.

Dwelley was a crucial sub for us in 2019, playing vital replacement snaps for both George Kittle and Juice while they were out with injury. Harris went from a safety with some coverage concerns to a Will linebacker midway through last year—a brilliant move on Robert Saleh’s part that both allowed Jimmie Ward to roll down near the line of scrimmage and maximize his versatility and let Harris do what he does best—play forward in a physical manner—without getting too overexposed to bigger bodies in the run game. Both were coaching staff favorites and retaining them is a nice move towards maintaining depth.

Elsewhere, River Cracraft returns on an ERFA deal. After his short stint as a starting wideout in the COVID-depleted Packers game, he really established himself on special teams… Safeties Kyle Nacua and Jared Mayden return on ERFA and RFA deals, respectively. With Jaquiski Tartt potentially on his way out, they have depth potential beyond their special teams play (although we’d obviously like to stay healthy and not need to use them). The same can be said with cornerback Ken Webster, who just got a one-year deal… Staying on special teams, long snapper Taybor Pepper received a two-year extension, locking in our trio of specialists from 2020. RB Austin Walter—who you may remember as our undersized kick returner with a fullback’s number who had a single big “who the hell was that guy” catch-and-run against the Saints—was also brought back on an RFA deal. Jauan Jennings, who started his rookie season on the practice squad before a bad hamstring tear—is on a futures contract. Finally, Josh Rosen was signed to a one-year extension—giving the Niners three quarterbacks locked up for 2021—Garoppolo, Rosen, and Josh Johnson. If I had to guess, Rosen/Johnson will be expected to fight it out for the third quarterback role as the dust settles with whatever the hell is going on at that position (to be discussed in a later write-up).

“Free” Agents: ERFAs and RFAs

Doing his best Spider-man meme impersonation [Allie Goulding / TNS]

The dudes below have NOT been re-signed yet, and they get their own section because of how different ERFA and RFA free agency is compared to Unrestricted Free Agency. The deadline to offer players tenders is this weekend (Saturday, March 13th) so we’ll know right before the legal tampering period starts where we stand with them.

OL, Daniel Brunskill (ERFA): As a likely starter at either center or right guard in 2021, the Niners will be happy to re-sign him on the league minimum. The only reason they haven’t yet is likely because they’re not sure if they want to offer him something longer and lock him up on the cheap for more years. While we had tons of problems along the interior last year, those were largely not the fault of Brunskill. He didn’t emerge as a star by any means, but given the constant movement he was forced into both in training camp and throughout the season, it’s hard to say we know the book on Brunskill quite yet. I’m still bullish and expect him to hold down the starting position at either center or right guard in 2021. Being able to focus on just one of them through the summer and fall could be huge towards his development as a player.

CB, Emmanuel Moseley (RFA): With the RFA deadline coming before free agency actually begins, it will be interesting to see what level tender the Niners offer Moseley. Basically, a team can offer a tender that correlates with the level of compensation they’ll require if the tendered player signs elsewhere. Those tenders are first round ($4.7M), second round ($3.4M), and right of first refusal ($2.1M). The draft compensation amounts aren’t written in stone—Breida was given a second-round tender last year but we traded him for a fifth-rounder—but if I had to guess, Moseley will get a second-round tender. He’s played well for us, has some flexibility to play in the slot if need be, and we currently have none of our top six cornerbacks on contract. I’m an E-Man fan, I think he still has some untapped potential, and if we don’t tender him at a second-round level it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t get swooped up.

QB, Nick Mullens (RFA): Despite rumors that realistically won’t end until Jimmy G wins (at least one) Super Bowl, my money is still on Garoppolo being our starting quarterback at the beginning of 2021. That said, there is next-to-zero chance that the Niners aren’t trying to improve the backup position. While Rosen and Johnson both have contracts for next year, there’s at least a shot that neither make the active roster and Mullens returns. Helping Mullens’ case is the fact that Rich Scangarello—the former-now-current-again 49ers QB coach who liked Mullens out of college—is back on staff. That said, if Mullens comes back I would expect it to be in the form of a late free agency return, not on an RFA tender. The Niners’ goal seems to be to add a brand new backup (potentially one who can be a starter down the road), and Mullens doesn’t seem to fit into that equation.

The Jets Connection

This is an odd year to have a lot of free agents for a number of reasons, but one of them is because of the coaching staff that Robert Saleh has amassed in New York. By bringing both his own defense and Shanahan’s offense to the Jets—who have the second-most cap space in the league at $82M—Saleh has made East Rutherford a natural landing spot for any of our free agents.

This has its benefits and its drawbacks. I’d love to retain Kerry Hyder, but if he leaves for an over-market contract from the Jets that would give us a nice comp pick in return. Likewise for Richard Sherman (although due to his age, that comp pick would be maxed out as a fifth-rounder). Overnight, the rebuilding New York Jets have become a nice landing spot for any free agents who we may not be prioritizing and an opportunity for us to net nice comp picks in return.

But there’s a big flip side to that on the back-end of our roster. In most years, guys like Ronald Blair and (I can’t believe I’m saying this) Dontae Johnson, would be slam-dunk returns in 2021—playing important depth roles on veteran minimums. Now, there’s at least one other potential suitor for their services and that suitor has way more spending power and is much more desperate for known locker room contributors. The Jets connection could give us marginal returns in compensatory picks, but it could also gut (or at least create mini bidding wars for) the back-end depth of our roster.

Tier 1 Free Agents

Pancakes on the menu, 24/7 [Giantswire]

Ranked based on priority to get them re-signed, NOT overall talent (although to get into this tier, you’re gonna really be able to ball at a high level). These are our top priority targets to lock up on new deals. If one of these guys were to depart, it would drastically affect the way we approach free agency and the early rounds of this April’s draft.

LT, Trent Williams

Williams returned from his Washington Racial Slurs-incompetence-based sabbatical in impressive fashion, creating highlight clips that were equal parts frightening and hilarious en route to playing at an All-Pro level. With a 91.9 PFF rating, Williams was Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated offensive tackle (regardless of side) and is sure to be the Niners free agent with the most outside interest. While the off-season began with tons of optimism that Williams would be re-signed before hitting the open market, he now seems interested in testing his market value. While I’d still say we have a better than 50/50 chance of retaining him—he should know as well as anyone the drawbacks of taking more money to join a franchise with issues—there will be teams with more cap space (some of them even good teams) who will be willing to outbid us.

So what would it cost to retain him? The COVID Cap makes free agency salary projections a near-impossible task this year. The only thing we really know is that all but the most cap wealthy teams are going to backload their cap hits out of necessity. But we can try and estimate what retaining Trent Williams could look like.

The three highest-paid tackles in football are David Bakhtiari ($23M/year), Laremy Tunsil ($22M/year), and Ronnie Stanley ($19.75M/year). However, there is reason to believe that Williams—despite his play—will not necessarily be resetting the market. The three players above were age 29, 25, and 25—respectively—at the time that they signed those extensions. Trent Williams will be 33 before the 2021 season starts. That, in addition to his lengthy injury history, should depress his salary just a little bit. Spotrac projects his average annual salary at $18.2M, which would put him just over Lane Johnson as the fourth-highest paid tackle in the league. That would be totally fine by me.

Why He’s So Important: Did you see Justin Skule last year? Williams is an All-Pro at one of the most important positions in football and the depth behind him is one giant, glaring question mark. Even with Shon Coleman’s return from a COVID opt-out, we have zero evidence that the left tackle position has even a serviceable long-term starter without Williams in the fold, and his leaving would immediately change our entire free agency and draft plans. 

Williams also presents the rare combination of size and athleticism that makes our running game hum at the tackle position. He’s one of the most athletic tackles in the game and pairing him with Mike McGlinchey in the run game means we always have a shot to pound the rock against anyone. 

It’s also worth noting that Williams’ age—like Sherman and Emmanuel Sanders before him—means that his comp pick return would max out as a fifth-rounder, even if his salary would dictate otherwise. In most situations, if a top-tier player left for a massive contract we could at least have consolation in the third-round comp pick we’d be receiving in return. Not so in this case, and that makes retaining Williams even more important.

Potential Replacements: The draft. 

There are not a lot of guys who can do what Williams can do and the few big-name tackles who could be available aren’t really what we’re looking for. Taylor Moton will likely be re-signed or franchised by Carolina, and—as a guy who some thought would have to shift to guard due to athletic concerns out of college—he’s likely not a great schematic fit. Daryl Williams is similar—a big guy who is more of a right tackle. With both players under the age of 30, they’ll likely not come cheap, and paying a premium for a downgrade at tackle would be a tough pill to swallow.

Entering the draft with a glaring hole that you need to address early is not a good place to be, but if we are forced to find another tackle, the silver lining is that this is a strong class for them. There could be upwards of a dozen tackles taken in the top 100 picks of the draft and taking one of those guys on the first two days (potentially with the #12 overall pick) would be our best path forward if we miss out on re-signing Williams.

CB, Jason Verrett

Verrett was the unsung star of last year’s defense, not only because of his miraculous return from basically three straight seasons(!) wiped out by injury but because he allowed us to offset our dwindled pass rush with a greater variety of backend coverages: namely, he could play man coverage really well.

Verrett’s versatility was a big part of our continued transition away from the Seattle 3 system—even with what became a rotating door of corners starting opposite him. He finished the season as PFF’s 8th-ranked cornerback and allowed us to play a secondary-down style of defense for large swaths of the year in a way that even a healthy Richard Sherman wouldn’t have allowed us to get away with.

But in terms of guestimating what his next contract will be… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Unsurprisingly, there is zero salary precedent for a player at a premier position, who was an All-Pro on his rookie deal, who then got hurt and played in only six games over four years(!), who then returned to Pro Bowl form shortly before his thirtieth birthday.

Verrett’s age helps give him priority over Sherman but isn’t exactly a selling point to other teams. Unsurprisingly the biggest red flag for him—both in terms of what we offer and what others do—is his lengthy injury history. While he looked excellent last year, it’s impossible to tell from the outside looking in whether this is a lucky blip of health or the end of an incredibly unlucky stretch of the opposite.

Verrett has talked publicly about how much he appreciated how the Niners have treated him and handled his rehab—in particular how they convinced him to sit last year to get fully healthy—and how that will be beneficial for the good guys come free agency. In a perfect world, he’d like to retain the training staff who helped build him back to his Pro Bowl level of play and comes back to the bay. And if other teams are scared off by his injury history and are only willing to offer short-term “prove it” deals, why would he leave?

If he re-signs with the Niners I’d be looking at a deal that avoids putting us in the situation where we are now with Dee Ford. Likely something heavily incentive-based with modest guaranteed money. We want to reward the guy when he plays well, but we’re really starting to feel the cap pressure from the big-ticket injury flameouts who we’ve acquired through the years (Malcolm Smith, Pierre Garcon, Richburg, etc.).

Why He’s So Important: Verrett gets the nod over Sherman due to his versatility, age, and (recent) availability. As every color commentary person repeated ad nauseam throughout the back half of last season, we have zero cornerbacks signed for 2021, thus making the position of utmost importance. And while Moseley is likely back, and we could benefit from the returns of guys like Ahkello Witherspoon and Dontae Johnson for depth, letting both Verrett and Sherman walk would make outside cornerback a major roster hole.

Potential Replacements: We’re about to figure out how much the Niners really want to prioritize the cornerback position and whether or not their mindset has changed with the evolution of their defense the past year. Cornerback is like left tackle—a high-paid premium position in a year where we’re strapped for cash—and in some ways Verrett’s FA mirrors that of Williams’. 

If Verrett walks, it’s hard to see us pursuing someone in free agency with a contract that will likely be close-to or greater-than Verrett’s asking price. We’d likely prioritize the re-signing of both Witherspoon and Johnson—plus Tim “much-hyped-by-me-but-will-he-ever-play” Harris will (theoretically) see legitimate snaps in 2021—but we’d also have to look to the draft.

Similar to our situation at left tackle, the bright side is that this draft is strong at cornerback, with a number of long and very athletic types populating the middle of the first round of most mock drafts. A year ago I’d say the Niners would NOT draft a first-round cornerback unless they’re the next coming of Jalen Ramsey, but perhaps that thinking has changed. If Verrett leaves, we’ll find out sooner than we would have liked.

Tier 2 Free Agents

The Harvard Difference [Tony Avelar / AP]

These are key contributors who we’re already engaging in talks to re-sign. While losing one of these guys wouldn’t necessarily create massive changes in our early draft plans, their roles would definitely have to be filled with new blood.

Juice / Kendrick Bourne

I’m clustering these two guys together for reasons that will become slightly more clear later

Both Shanahan and new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniels love Juice and the feeling seems mutual.

That’s an OC right there! pic.twitter.com/SHm0LmgjYY

— Kyle Juszczyk (@JuiceCheck44) January 18, 2021

That said, there was a ripe market for Juice last time he was a free agent (the Niners blew up the fullback market to get him and were supposedly the second-highest offer that he got), and with so many people running some iteration of Shanahan’s offense these days, it’s hard to imagine that interest has waned.

Juice had a few stellar performances last year (see: New England) but was far less consistent than in 2019. While I’m willing to attribute some of those issues—particularly on combo edge blocks—to miscommunication and lack of chemistry with younger players, if you’re paying a fullback 140% of the salary of the league’s second-highest-paid fullback, you want to see the results daily. This is especially the case if the debate is between re-signing Juice or rolling with a replacement-level fullback and re-signing Kendrick Bourne. 

KB has steadily improved each year, has slippery length and consistency (even despite drops) that is nice to have in a position group that has seen a lot of turnover over the years, and—like Juice—clearly wants to return to the Niners. The interest is mutual, but it begs the question: how much do you pay a guy who is clearly the third wideout and the fourth receiving option for an offense? If I had to guess, I’d look somewhere in the Cordarrelle Patterson-esque $3M-$4M range?

Why They’re So Important: The major differences between Shanahan’s offense and all of its offshoots are (A) Shanahan’s is more complex (and better), and (B) he commits more to running the ball with an extra blocker (and the play fakes which that unlocks). Clearly, that second part is where Juice comes into play. If we don’t have plus fullback play, the offense needs to shift considerably, and I don’t think we (nor Shanahan) want that to happen.

An alternative option that’s been floated around is that the Niners could go further away from the two-back sets of 21 personnel and invest in another tight end. While the idea of Kittle and someone like Florida’s Kyle Pitts is certainly intriguing, the fullback and tight end are not interchangeable (not even in this offense), and while extra gaps in the running game from double tight has its value, a fullback in the backfield allows for blocking action to both directions of the formation and sucks in defenses more horizontally, thus opening up more space for slants and chunk plays in the quick game outside and in the short alleys. I’m not saying it can’t work (see: Gronk/Hernandez Patriots), but I am saying that it has its limitations (see: 2019 Ertz/Goedert Eagles). And that it doesn’t seem to be what the Niners would prefer.

As for KB, he is both our most steady receiver (in terms of availability) and our best in the red zone. He’s an underrated blocker (yes, it does ACTUALLY matter in the Niners’ scheme) and can play any and all of the different positions out wide. While a No.3/4 option is often a roster slot filled with a journeyman type, due to injury concerns in the position group I’d argue KB is more valuable than your standard No.3 wideout.

Potential Replacements: What becomes of Juice and Bourne also depends largely on what we have behind them. Because while the potential fill-ins have intriguing potential, they are very VERY green.

Juice’s heir apparent is Josh Hokit, a second-year player who was a do-it-all type for Fresno State, but—as a practice squad fullback—someone who we clearly don’t really know anything about. That said, we’d likely be saving at least $5M in cap space starting Hokit on a rookie minimum versus Juice—who is likely going to garner at least slightly more than the $5.2M AAV of his previous deal.

Who would replace KB is equally as complicated, but for slightly different reasons. I may write up something later on Kyle Pitts and how he may be able to fill multiple roles for our offense in the unlikely situation that we select him, but KB’s role would likely be filled by some combination of Richie James and whoever can emerge un-injured between Jalen Hurd and Jauan Jennings. Despite the tantalizing size, versatility, and athleticism of what Hurd could be, it’s hard to put all your eggs in a basket whose missed his first two seasons due to injury. Likewise for Jennings, who hasn’t even played in a preseason game and whom we know isn’t the athlete Hurd is. There’s also Travis Benjamin, who’ll be back on a one-year deal after his COVID opt out, but he’s more of a depth/journeyman type and doesn’t provide the RZ value that we covet. Ultimately, replacing KB would likely involve diving into another deep class of wideouts, even if having a starting lineup of wideouts all on their rookie contracts is far from ideal.

Tier 3 Free Agents

This could have something to do with those trade requests that aren’t actually requests [Michael Zaggaris / Getty Images]

We want these guys back, but it’d be a luxury more than a need. Their primary replacements could already be on the roster, with additional players being brought in to back them up.

DE, Kerry Hyder

Hyder was another savior of our defense last year, getting signed on a paltry contract to play a backup role before being thrust into the starting lineup in week two and repositioned as the team’s primary edge rusher. While he lacks the quick twitch and bend of someone like Dee Ford, the idea of Hyder lining up opposite a healthy Nick Bosa is hugely intriguing. If money were no option, he’d be higher on this list, but he has likely played his way out of re-signing with the Niners. The only reason I’m even including him on this list is because (A) if something falls through with Trent Williams we may have added space to be used on someone like Hyder and (B) the pass-rusher market is overflowing with talent this off-season, which could depreciate Hyder’s value.

If the latter occurs then perhaps Hyder agrees to another short-term, moderately paid season in hopes of getting a big payday a year from now. While I entered the off-season convinced he was gone, I very well might be wrong. The book might not be out on Hyder quite yet (NFL.com didn’t have him on the list of the NFL’s top 101 free agents of 2021). If so, I’d be happy to take back Hyder on a modest deal.

The absolute worst-case scenario is that we get priced out of a one-year rental. As in, we don’t have the money for a mid-level deal so he takes one on another team in hopes of catapulting another good season into a post-COVID windfall. That scenario would mean we get minimal compensatory pick return and that a stopgap team would be reaping the benefits a year later, rather than us.

Potential Replacements: There are a lot of intriguing names out there, but it’s hard to place which ones would land in our price range. If we’re outbid on Hyder then we can safely say we’re outbid on all the Shaq Barrett / Matt Judon-type guys and likely the tier beneath them as well. There’s a chance we could hope for a market-based discount on a potential lateral move like Shelby Harris or roll the dice on one-year wonder (with first-round pedigree) Haason Reddick. Regardless, I would assume our plan at DE is to wait out the initial movement, find value once the dust settles, then draft a speed rusher.

DT, D.J. Jones

Jones is a big body who moves like a considerably smaller one. While he’s been hampered with injuries and didn’t have the breakout campaign that many would have hoped last year, he’s been a plus contributor for the past two years and has played in 27 of 32 possible regular season games during that time. He’s also the only actual nose tackle-type that we have on the active roster. Given that he’s probably more valuable to us than elsewhere and likely doesn’t have the body of work to net a big payday, I’d expect us to be able to retain him at a reasonable rate. If not, it’s certainly a position we’ll attempt to fill on the cheap. The arrow’s pointing up for both Javon Kinlaw and Kevin Givens, but we need a real nose to pair with them on early downs.

Potential Replacements: If D.J. departs, his primary replacement is likely already on the practice squad. Darrion Daniels was getting some training camp love last season and ended up seeing playing time in four games down the stretch of his rookie season. Was he prepared for that playing time? No, not really. But he’s a massive nose tackle body with enough quicks to project as a contributor along the DL and should only improve with an actual off-season and preseason under the tutelage of Kris Kocurek. 

Slot CB, K’Waun Williams

On pure talent alone, Williams would be higher up on this list, but the nature of the position and the market means re-signing him is slightly less pressing. As nickel corners often are, K’Waun Williams has long been an underrated talent. While he wasn’t as splashy last year and was—like everyone else—limited by injuries, he’s been one of the better nickel corners in the league for the past few seasons and has been healthy for 43 of 48 games with the Niners leading up to last year (when he missed eight contests). Our nickel corners are important starters and active edge defenders / rushers. 

Potential Replacements: Depending on what happens on the outside, Emmanuel Moseley has played in the nickel before. While it doesn’t seem to naturally fit his physical profile, he’s a smart dude and would certainly be able to make it work. Jamar Taylor played well in Williams’ stead, but he’s a UFA and unfortunately tore his ACL mid-season, so it’s tough to know if/when he’ll be back. An external candidate of interest would be the New York Jets’ Brian Poole. Good players on bad teams are often a prime candidate to get undervalued on the market and Poole’s been one of the better nickel corners in the NFL for quite some time. That said, with Saleh in the fold there, it would be hard to see them letting Poole go if they believe he fits the scheme that they’re implementing. His availability may be based on whether the Jets are trying to avoid any major contracts so that they can commit to a multi-year rebuild or not.

Tier 4 Free Agents

As mentioned earlier, Richard Sherman is basically out the door already and has largely stated as much publicly. We should be wishing all our free agents well, both for their contributions to our team and community and because the more they get paid the better draft returns we receive. Sherman’s potential return caps out as a fifth-rounder, but we’d be happy to take that if he can find one more big payday.

If the oft-injured Jaquiski Tartt returns it would likely be late in free agency on a bargain deal. He’s a good player, a vital communicator, and is still on the right side of thirty, but his injury concerns are simply too great, and the Niners will likely be looking to see if they can maximize Tarvarius Moore’s tremendous physical gifts in the last year on his rookie deal.

Given what will likely be a slim market for their services and our need at the position, I’d happily take back Ahkello Witherspoon, Dontae Johnson, and (depending on his rehab) Jamar Taylor. Even if we don’t have continuity amongst starters, having backups who know what they’re doing is crucial. LB Joe Walker’s return likely hinges on what our roster looks like in terms of specials after the draft as special teams standout Mark Nzeocha was not tendered last week.

Along the DL, Ziggy Ansah is likely a walk. I’d love to take back Ronald Blair on a one-year contract if his knee is right. Again, this could be a chance where Saleh—a vocal Blair fan—could poach one of our guys, but with snaps available opposite Bosa and a rehab team that he’s accustomed to, Blair has plenty of reasons to stay. He could be the 2020 version of Kerry Hyder (aka the 2018 version of Ronald Blair). Dion Jordan and Solomon Thomas likely are who they are at this point, but depending on how the rest of our DL shakes out that could be enough to find a rotational position. The draft capital we traded for Jordan Willis (a 2022 sixth-rounder for him and a 2021 seventh-rounder in return) is low enough that we could cut ties with him and not regret the trade, but I’d expect the team to bring him back through the off-season and training camp to see if they can untap his potential.

Along the OL, I wouldn’t expect Tony Bergstrom, Tom Compton, or Hroniss Grasu to return, but I’d welcome back Ben Garland if he’s recovered from injury. He’s no world-beater in pass protection but he is a really good run blocker and a Garland/Brunskill combo on the interior would already make me feel better than last year.

In the backfield, Tevin Coleman and Jet McKinnon are likely walks—with the Niners’ third running back job going to JaMychal Hasty—who flashed for a bit before people realized he was always cutting back and would never bounce anything—Austin Walter, and/or a late drafted/undrafted rookie. 

Trent Taylor was fully supplanted by Richie James midway through last year. He’s probably played his last snap as a Niner. If Jordan Reed returns or not likely depends in part on his interest in playing. He returned last year because of his relationship with Shanahan and his belief that this team could compete for a championship. While I continue to be extremely bullish on the Niners, the path looked a lot clearer a year ago and it’s TBD whether or not he wants to put his body on the line for another year. Lastly, CJ Beathard was clearly the better of our backups by the end of last year, but I expect the Niners to make a move on the outside to shore up that position.

That’s next time.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Week 15: @ Cowboys

You know it’s bad when you recognize this as a meme

Opponent: Dallas Cowboys (4-9; 4th in NFC East)
Date: Sunday, 12/20
Location: Arlington, TX
Kickoff: 10:00 AM PT
TV: CBS, or wherever you stream it illegally

What was once tabbed for the Sunday night game has since been un-flexed into an innocuous 10 AM start on CBS, punishment for the underwhelming play and massive injury lists accompanying both these squads. Like us, the Cowboys have a legitimate claim that injuries have thrown off their preseason expectations. Unlike us, these Dallas Cowboys are genuinely not a good football team. But coming off their most impressive win of the season—a 30-7 drubbing of the Bengals—and with a 2-2 record since their bye week, they can at least make the claim that they are no longer a terrible one. And that’s enough to make this a ball-game.

INJURY REPORT

While there’s still nothing official, Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is likely out for this week and probably the rest of the season… by Thursday, Daniel Brunskill (shoulder), Fred Warner (stinger), Raheem Mostert (ankle), K’Waun Williams (ankle), D.J. Jones (ankle), and Emmanuel Moseley (hamstring) were all limited participants in practice. From most-likely to least-likely, I ordered that list as a pure guess as to the likelihood that each of those guys plays… George Kittle’s (foot) practice window opened this week. While he was involved in routes and other activities by Thursday, it is highly highly unlikely that he plays this week. Depending on what happens on Sunday both in our game and around the league, it may make the most sense to shelve him for 2021… Colton McKivitz was put on the COVID list earlier this week. That combined with Hroniss Grasu (knee) not practicing Thursday and Ben Garland (ankle) not likely to return at all this year makes for gigantic question marks along the interior. Even if we’re assuming Brunskill plays, could we see the first of CFL practice-squadder Dakoda Shepley?… finally, updates on the status of Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) are still vague, but at the moment he’s probably not coming back this year.

OFFENSE

Probably (hopefully) not an in-game photo? [Aaron Doster / AP]

Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is a holdover from the Jason Garrett regime, and it’s widely believed he’ll be a head man in the NFL sooner rather than later. There’s naturally some debate as to whether Moore is truly a whiz kid who was hamstrung by a head coach on his way out—which was ironically the exact same label applied to Jason Garrett when he was under Wade Phillips a decade ago—or simply a competent pilot of an offense with a sizable talent advantage. 

Regardless, the pure yardage totals paint a favorable picture of his ability. Despite finishing last season 8-8, the Boys had the 2nd-best Offensive DVOA in all of football under Moore’s tutelage and exploded out of the gates this year—putting up over 500 yards of offense in three straight games—before cratering as injuries to their quarterback and offensive line depleted this star-studded unit. Since then, the Cowboys have at least plugged the most glaring holes in their sinking ship, and Dak Prescott has made himself a lot of money.

In the four games that Prescott played and finished, he averaged 422 yards passing, completed a career high 68% of his passes, threw for 9 TDs vs 3 INTs and rushed for an additional three scores. While the Boys were 1-3 in those games (and really should have been 0-4 if not for an absurd onside kick), the offense was not primary culprit.

Here are Dallas’ splits this year when Dak started and finished the game compared to when any other quarterback was under center, with rankings compared to the current season-long averages across the league.

If you’re wondering who edged them out for last place in three categories, it’s obviously the Jets every time

Other than the running game and turnovers (Dak did lose three fumbles on top of his three picks in those first four games), the offense absolutely cratered after Prescott went down. But losing their quarterback wasn’t the only problem. 

Their unreasonably stacked offensive line has also been ravaged by injuries. Pro Bowl right tackle La’El Collins sustained a hip injury in the preseason and has yet to play a snap. All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith—of “my arms are so huge I need to wear knee braces on them” fame—played only two games before being shelved the season with a neck injury. Rookie center Tyler Biadasz went down in week 8 and has yet to return. And even All-Pro guard Zack Martin—who has finished in the top 5 or better in PFF rating in all seven of his NFL seasons and was moved to tackle out of desperation following the bye—has been out since week 12. What’s left from what has long been considered one of the top offensive lines in football are the two Connors—McGovern and Williams—who are still holding it down rather well at the guard positions. Unfortunately, they’re now starting journeyman and former-Niner Joe Looney at center and while their situation at tackle has improved from its nightmarish status earlier in the season, it remains far from an offensive strength.

Running behind this line is Ezekiel Elliott, one of the best backs in the game but one who’s in the midst of an off-year. As the offensive line has slowly gelled and the team has re-committed to force-feeding him touches, Zeke has improved, and he can still turn would-be 2-yard gains into 5- and 6-yard ones with his blend of size, athleticism, and burst. But that’s only when he finds a crease and those creases have been hard to come by.

With the OL decimated due to injury, the real depth of this offense is in its pass-catchers. Amari Cooper will drop some balls, but he’s a great route runner who excels after the catch. The slender and acrobatic rookie CeeDee Lamb has been impressive as a rookie, even if his numbers dropped off significantly after Dak went down. Michael Gallup continues to fill the mercurial “that guy” position opposite their No.1–a spot long held down by Terrence Williams which can be best described as “I don’t really know if they’re that good or not but they do make a handful of big plays each year.” Dalton Schultz is a reliable option at tight end. Even Cedrick Wilson doesn’t suck.

But getting these talented skill players the ball continues to be a major challenge for this Cowboys offense, which is helmed by the ghost of Andy Dalton and an offensive line that struggles tremendously to protect him. To be fair, the Boys spent the bye week recommitting to: (A) protecting the ball—with 4 turnovers over the last four games after 20 over their first nine—and (B) finding more creative ways to get their playmakers in space. That’s resulted in more end-arounds, reverses, and touch passes to their talented wideouts and a passing game that has embraced lower volume and shorter completions as to protect their suspect tackles.

The Boys were a dumpster fire entering their bye week and spent that time off committing to protecting the ball—with four turnovers over the last four games after twenty through their first nine—and finding more creative ways to get their playmakers the ball in space. That’s resulted in more end-arounds, reverses, and touch passes to their talented wideouts, as well as a passing game that has embraced lower volume and lower risk—a style that better fits the demeanor of Andy Dalton.

These adjustments—along with a healthy Dalton—have resulted in the Cowboys putting up 370+ yards of offense twice in the past two weeks, while their recent 30-7 win over the Bengals marked their biggest margin of victory this season (their previous three wins came by a combined total of 7 points). This is an offense that has a couple glaring weaknesses but has at least settled into an identity over the past month, even if that identity is a far cry from the explosive monster they were to start the season.  

DEFENSE

This year’s had a whole lot of this [DallasCowboys.com]

Former 49ers head-man Mike Nolan was brought in as the Boys’ DC this off-season. This despite the team understanding that they didn’t have the personnel for a 3-4 defense, the front office lacking the patience and/or commitment to adjust to that scheme, and Nolan being given the orders to “run a multiple scheme with 3-4 elements.” That’s gone about as well as you would have expected.

After struggling mightily to start the season—allowing an average of 431 yards and 36 points over their first four games—Nolan quickly switched to a “simpler” scheme in hopes that the Cowboys would perform a bit better, but that hasn’t amounted to much.

This Cowboys defense, which was recently known for its dangerous and deep defensive line and young stars at linebacker, is now a shell of its former self. Their moves along the defensive line have largely backfired. They dumped a rarely-used Kerry Hyder to clear space to add Gerald McCoy to a three-year $18.3M contract, a deal which—as McCoy has yet to play this season—has since been dissolved on injury settlement but only after doling out of all of its guaranteed cash. They then added the XXL version of Aldon Smith, a move which looked brilliant when he blew up at the beginning of the year—totaling four sacks in a single game and at once point having the top pass-rush win rate in the league—but an extra 40 pounds, five years off from football, and way too many snaps have gassed him out down the stretch. While DeMarcus Lawrence is still an absolute stud, he’s been the only one holding it down on this once feared defensive line.

In the back seven it doesn’t get much better. While the Boys returned the large majority of their linebackers and secondary from last year, the play of both units has plummeted across the board. Once again, I will preface the below chart of PFF ratings with the caveat that their grading system is far from perfect, but when it comes to massive outliers on large sample sizes, trends can be telling. And this chart of grades from the Cowboys’ back seven players in 2019 versus 2020 has a very obvious trend.

At linebacker, the hyper athletic duo of Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch are just two years removed from being considered one of the best linebacker duos in the league—finishing 6th and 5th respectively in PFF grading for their position during the 2018 season. Now they look lost as Dallas’ D gets gashed on the ground. While in the secondary, this was never a true lockdown crew, but it was a largely functional one. That’s barely the case anymore.

You don’t get dips in play across the board—and double-digit drops for six of nine of your major contributors—without something being foundationally wrong. It would be one thing if this was meant to be a transition year, in which the Cowboys were cleaning house to go young and bring in guys who fit the 3-4 scheme, but since management and coaching can’t really agree on where they should land schematically, it’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Or at least, any light that retains this defensive staff beyond this year.

MATCHUP

With Arik Armstead and Kerry Hyder giving us a massive advantage on the edges, the Cowboys will likely try to attack the interior of our run defense with an assortment of quick plunges as well as the kind of baby draws that the Bills used early in week 13. While their OL play has been better in pass-protection than run-blocking, this isn’t a team that wants to get into many clear passing downs, so keeping Zeke’s runs to 2- and 3-yard gains versus 6- and 7-yard ones will be key.

While Andy Dalton is a fine quarterback and one of the better backups in the league, he’s still a lesser version of the same guy whose been a mediocre-at-best starter for at least the past three years. With their offensive line intact, that could have been enough, but in the Boys’ current state the Niners should look to confuse Dalton, take away the layups underneath, and mix-up pressures on passing downs. This is not a Cowboys team that can survive if forced into a high-volume passing game, so that’s exactly what we should push them into.

Offensively, whether it’s CJ Beathard or Nick Mullens, Raheem Mostert or Jeff Wilson, we need to protect the football and RUN THE BALL. The Cowboys have the 27th-ranked defense in rushing DVOA and have allowed the most rushing yards in the league (2,115 yards) as well as the worst yards/carry average (5.1 ypc). With us trotting out our second or third quarterback and with many weapons missing, they’re sure to load the box and will likely send extra bodies on blitzes so that their guys can focus on running, chasing, and hitting rather than reading and reacting. That means misdirection in the backfield and picking them apart with play action, RPOs, and the short-to-intermediate game will be key to keeping the Cowboys honest. Last week, we had plenty of open looks against a stout defense and a dominant defensive line, but we simply couldn’t connect. This week, against a much-lesser defense, there’s truly no excuse.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Racial Slurs 23, Niners 15

Yurp [Niners Wire]

Back by popular demand... The Eagles Game 2.0!  

What’s that? You hated that game? Well too bad, this is the world we live in. 

In a game where our defense held Washington to 193 yards of total offense and three field goals, the 17 points allowed off turnovers—two on giveaways returned for touchdowns—were the difference in yet another hideous battle with a current NFC East leader.

OFFENSE

The big keys heading into this game were to control game flow and prevent costly turnovers. You could MAYBE argue that we kind of accomplished one of those. But not really. In an all-too-familiar case of deja vu, we massively out-gained our opponent in terms of yardage (344-193), but lengthy cold stretches and turnovers trumped whatever successes we had.

Believe it or not, this was nearly the exact same offensive output we manufactured in our last win against the Rams (345 yards of offense, 16 offensive points, 3 turnovers), but it sure felt a helluva lot worse in a loss against a (now) six-win team.

Hamstrung again. There’s nothing concrete yet, but it seems likely that Deebo’s latest injury—a hamstring strain on the very first play from scrimmage—will shelve him for the rest of the year. Hamstrings are fickle, and if sitting him now will increase the chances of a healthy hammy next year, we shouldn’t think twice—even if the thought of what our offensive output may look like without him paints a grim picture.

Last year we found out pretty quick what our offense looks like without Kittle. This year, we can add on what it looks like without Kittle AND Deebo. Obviously, it’s not pretty.

Utilizing so many position-less skill players presents us with some obvious advantages in terms of matchups and what we like to do schematically, but if it has a drawback it’s that the more unique a player you have, the harder they are to replace when injured. With his very first touch going for nine yards on a handoff, it was clear that Deebo was going to be a big part of our game plan. Just as it was equally clear the second he pulled up gimpy that we’d have no means of replacing his role once he went down.

While Deebo’s intangible benefits and knack for flash plays are fairly obvious to see, I think people really underestimate his pure statistical impact as well. The fact that Deebo wasn’t an immediate full-time starter last year and that he plays such a unique hybrid role in our offense often means he’s left out of discussions about the league’s top young wideouts. So I decided to tabulate some splits that better show his box score impact.

Here’s a list of the many receivers drafted in that 2019 class who have established themselves as full-time starters, but only including games where the wideout plays at least 50% of the team’s snaps. While this doesn’t change the math for guys like Metcalf, McLaurin, and AJ Brown—guys who were full-time starters from day one—it gives a fairer shake for players like Deebo and Diontae Johnson who grew into full-time roles and may have been knocked out of games due to injury.

I’ve included Deebo twice on this chart, first showing his raw stats for any game where he played over 50% of offensive snaps and second presenting his numbers from the first Seattle game of 2019 on (SEA+)—when his snap share jumped from 59% over the first seven games to 82% the remainder of the way. While I believe that run of games more accurately compares him to his peers, as you can see below, his figures are impressive either way:

Aside from games and touchdowns, Deebo leads or is close-to-leading the class in every statistical category. This despite consistently sharing looks and operating in a run-heavy offense that’s been missing its starting quarterback for the majority of 2020. He out-touches guys in wide-open, pass-heavy offenses like Metcalf and Johnson. His yardage is on par with or better than dudes who are undisputed No.1 and No.2 options in McLaurin and A.J. Brown.

In short, Deebo fuxxxx. While we missed him in this game and will miss him for the rest of the season if it comes to that, we need to do whatever it takes to get him as healthy as possible moving forward because he is an absolute foundational piece to the long-term plans of our offense.

Runnin on Empty. We started the game with wide open sets and empty looks that gave Mullens clearer coverage reads, both to settle in our quarterback and to soften up the defense for the running game. Initially it kinda worked, with a promising opening drive fizzling out in Washington territory after a contested drop and a touchdown drive that included 40 yards on the ground coming soon after. 

However, this plan fizzled out rather quickly, and our next eight(!) offensive drives ended in either punts or turnovers before Juice scored early in the fourth. While the commentators seemed to point to the idea that Washington’s defensive line suddenly “turned it on,” there were opportunities to be had, even with a clear trench disadvantage. We didn’t seize those opportunities because of too many mistakes, penalties, and sacks putting us in down-and-distances that we simply haven’t been able to convert all year.

Plus, there was one fundamental problem…

Issues in the Mid-Game. One of the many issues with shaping an offense around a specific quarterback and that quarterback no longer being available is the fact that the offensive scheme has been built around the missing quarterback’s strengths. Not the backup’s strengths. And Mullens and Jimmy G are very different quarterbacks.

Here’s a breakdown of Mullens’ passing stats, separated by the depth of the intended target on each play. I broke the passes down into these three categories because I wanted to differentiate between RB shoot routes, play action leak outs, and screens (<3 yards) versus our short-to-intermediate game (4-13 yards) and finally our longer-developing passes down the field (14+ yards).

Jimmy has never excelled at throwing vertical routes, but we have seen him have success throwing routes like deep outs, wheels, and post-curls—all throws that would land in that intermediate-to-deep range of 14+ yards down the field. However, where we’d expect him to really do well is in that middle range—those 4- to 13-yard completions—where his quick diagnoses, lightning-fast release, and plus underneath accuracy can all shine. As for “<3 yards,” every quarterback in the NFL would be expected to be decent at those.

But here are Mullens’ splits in this game: 

Of note, on his pick six, Mullens was looking at a 5-yd in initially (which was open) before moving over late to the swing route that got returned the other way

In his defense, he was under duress for much of the game and those five drops could have easily been eight (I didn’t include drops where contact from defender came at the same time as the ball). However, in everyone else’s defense, the Niners leaned towards easy completions and short game specifically because they knew the pass rush would be a problem, and a handful of those drops were on late, high passes over the middle, which—for a wideout—is basically a death sentence. 

Ultimately, Mullens seems to be at his best when he’s allowed to see things develop, which means those 10-20 yard completions on post-curls, comebacks, and the like—all routes that we oscillate between lacking the time to protect or the personnel to execute. He’ll show flashes of being able to get the ball out quick underneath (see: Giants game), but overall his timing and accuracy are too up-and-down to sustain drives while relying heavily on those kinds of plays. Unfortunately, those are the kinds of plays we’ve built this offense around and the kind of plays we have the talent upfront to regularly protect.

Again, the struggles we had in the short-to-intermediate game weren’t all on Mullens, and this game was certainly the greatest exaggeration of the differences between him and our starting quarterback. But occasional linebacker blindness aside, Jimmy G could get this offense humming because (when healthy) he was money on those quick-hitters. Mullens it seems, will never be that kind of player. If we had more healthy weapons and he was in an offense that emphasized different concepts, that might not be such a big deal. But this year, in this offense, with who we have available, it has been absolutely that.

DEFENSE

While the opponent should certainly be taken into account, this was one of our defense’s finer performances in a season when we’ve had quite a few. The 193 yards allowed were a season-low and our first time holding a team under 200 yards of offense this season (for reference, we held an opposing team under 200 yards of offense FIVE times last year), while the Racial Slurs’ scoring drives spanned 29, 13, and (right after Fred Warner got hurt) 72 yards. Even when they were scoring, they weren’t exactly instilling a ton of confidence.

Of the 13 offensive drives Washington had, nine ended in punts or turnovers, and seven were three-and-outs, including the last four in a row. This was a dominant performance. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough.

Clamps. Despite entering the game without our top three options at nickel corner, Washington didn’t really have the manpower nor the creativity to exploit our clear weakness. As expected, our secondary was very comfortable rotating through coverages—including plenty of man—and while the Slurs had some sporadic success throwing to their backs after Fred Warner went down, Dre Greenlaw’s impressive third-down stop to give our offense the ball late in the game was a prime example of the immense speed of our linebacker corps.

Alex Smith looked off from the outset—the calf injury was potentially something he’d been dealing with leading up to the game—while Dwayne Haskins… looked like Dwayne Haskins. The result was a passing attack that combined for 15-of-32 passing attempts for 108 yards and one pick. The longest pass they completed on the day went for 13 yards.

Our coverage wasn’t overly complicated, but it is worth pointing out an interesting sub-package that we employed a few times, typically (if not entirely) on third downs.

Here we’re in a dime package with Witherspoon subbing in as our fourth corner. However, instead of Ward and Moore playing in their traditional deep safety roles, Ward has slid into the nickel, Witherspoon has entered as a boundary corner, and Sherman has dropped back into a safety role.

Even if they only run Cover 2 man out of this look (I didn’t comb closely through the film, but that was the coverage they played the few times I saw it), this change-up makes sense for a number of reasons. First-off, it allows you to slide Jimmie Ward down near the line of scrimmage, where he’s excelled the past few weeks; secondly, it gives you a smaller, quicker player in Ward to work as your primary slot with K’Waun, Taylor, and Moseley out with injury; finally, it allows Sherman to use his intelligence in space as a safety—a role which many in the league think he’s destined for sooner rather than later—while preventing him from being out-quicked or out-ran by younger wideouts while in man coverage.

We talked about how Dontae Johnson being forced into the nickel may have made the Niners wary of dialing up too much man coverage against Cole Beasley and the Bills last week. While Dontae would still play in the slot in this set, he can now line up on a bigger target rather than a quicker one—with Ward taking the lead slot receiver—and the Niners still have the ability to go man without worrying about a potential mismatch due to injury.

Interior Re-design. With DJ Jones out due to injury and Kevin Givens gone due to COVID protocols after traveling home for the birth of his daughter on Wednesday (congrats!), there was some concern entering this game that the combination of Kentavius Street and UDFA Darrion Daniels would have some issues with Washington’s interior running game. 

Rather than pile too much responsibility on Street and Daniels—who combined for 48 of 63 possible defensive snaps—the Niners opted to rotate their hybrid defensive ends inside more often, which gave Dion Jordan a season-high 49 snaps as the next man up on the edge. The re-made defensive line did just fine. It may not have been spectacular, and the Slurs did have some success on the ground in the second half, but 47 of their 98 rushing yards came on the drive where Warner got hurt. After that adjustment period both our defensive line and our new linebackers settled in and helped the Niners close out the game (defensively at least) in impressive fashion.

So… where does this leave us? Most likely, it leaves us in the unenviable no-man’s land between stumping for better draft position and sneaking into the playoffs. We are now two full games behind the Cardinals—the seventh seed in the NFC if the season ended today—and playing catchup behind teams like the Vikings and Bears. 

With three games to play, it’s certainly still possible to catch the Cardinals—especially since we play them in two weeks and they must still face the Rams in week 17—but any discussion about us sneaking into the playoffs starts with winning out. And then getting a decent amount of help. 

Go Niners 👍🏈

Wk14: vs. Intolerance

Totally established in 1932. Definitely not a few months ago when FedEx threatened to pull their sponsorship

Opponent: Washington Racial Slurs (5-7; T-1st in NFC East)
Date: Sunday, 12/13
Location: Glendale, AZ (lol)
Kickoff: 1:25 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Don’t look now but—despite Dan Snyder’s best efforts—this team doesn’t suck. In fact, with a record equal to ours, tied in first in the NFC East, and having won three in a row, Washington—fresh off a not-that-surprising upset of the then-undefeated Steelers—has a ton of momentum right now. And perhaps even more impressive, the two men at the core of their turnaround—a QB who nearly lost his leg to sepsis and a head coach who just beat cancer while in-season during a pandemic—have made Washington—again, despite Dan Snyder’s best efforts—a decently likable team as well.

INJURY REPORT

Deebo Samuel missed practice on Wednesday but was expected to be back Thursday. With the way he plays, I feel like he’s destined to be on and off the practice field throughout his career. He should be good-to-go by Sunday... Tom Compton had a head injury during last week’s game. That in conjunction with the concussion he sustained a few weeks back during walk-throughs (can’t make this up) means Colton McKivitz is likely to get his second start and will have to play major minutes... Emmanuel Moseley and K’Waun Williams are both questionable to return this week. While the Slurs’ passing attack is far from devastating, getting either back would be a big boost in the nickel... no word yet on Ben Garland’s return. Which means it’s not likely to be on Sunday.

OFFENSE

#11 in your programs, only one of those digits in your hearts [Nic Antaya/Getty Images]

Alex Smith is awesome. This offense is not. 

While Smith brings a high-level IQ and “don’t fuck it up” competency level that last year’s first-round pick Dwayne Haskins has yet to show in the NFL (thus leading to his benching), a 36-year-old Smith, coming off 17(!) leg surgeries, who hasn’t played in two years, is obviously not lighting up the scoreboard. Nor are they asking him to.

Smith has been shelved since midway through 2018, but he hasn’t missed much in terms of the offensive revolution in Washington. They’re not the “run the ball, throw a checkdown on third-and-long, punt” offense of yesteryears, but their raw production is probably pretty similar. In terms of DVOA, they’re the 27th-ranked offense, 30th-ranked passing attack, and 17th-ranked rushing game. While they’re certainly the least explosive offense we’ll face the remainder of the way, those rankings undersell this offense at least a tiny bit in that they play strong complementary football with their defense and do an excellent job of not beating themselves.

The Slurs lean on their offensive line—which is strong across the board but especially on the interior—and their backfield duo of Antonio Gibson—the rookie size-speed sledgehammer who may miss the game with turf toe—and JD McKissic—2020’s variation of the scat back rando who Alex Smith makes PPR relevant with his proclivity for check downs. But this isn’t Jimmy Raye “run-run-pass” territory, the Slurs actually throw the ball the 7th-most on first down—leaning heavily on the short-to-intermediate game—as they understand they lack the horses to get out of third-and-longs with regularity.

That’s because out wide they only have a single legitimate weapon. That’s Terry McLaurin, the highly-polished second-year wideout who has more targets this season than the Slurs’ next four top-targeted wideouts combined. Outside of him they have the on-again, off-again contributions of tight end Logan Thomas, who—as a former quarterback—is a poor blocker but is their only size threat in the red zone. All the other wideouts suck. Some have some athletic potential. Some may develop. But right now, they are at best replacement level players.

Their entire offensive game plan is to set up third-and-manageable, get as many first downs as possible, and win the field position game to set up the clear strength of this team: their defense.

DEFENSE

Draft Capitallllll [Inside the Star]

Ron Rivera’s hiring was labeled a slam dunk by many, if not all, media pundits. Not only because he brought stability, discipline, and likability to a franchise that was severely lacking in all of the above, but because many believed his 4-3 defensive prowess would immediately transform the Racial Slurs into one of the best D’s in the business. And it has. Despite their issues on offense, this unit is currently ranked 4th in the country in Defensive DVOA.

It starts up front, where Washington has invested as much draft capital as we have on the defensive line. Chase Young (2020 - 2nd overall), the jewel of this year’s draft, has performed as well as expected, his arrival coinciding with the second-year emergence that Montez Sweat (2019 - 26th overall) was due for as he grew into his frame. Former Alabama teammates Jonathan Allen (2017 - 17th overall) and Da’Ron Payne (2018 - 13th overall) man the inside, while Ryan Kerrigan (2011 - 11th overall) and Tim Settle (2018 - 5th rounder) fill out the rotation. This is a unit that can at least make the claim of being the top defensive line in the nation and currently ranks 4th in adjusted sack rate. 

Behind them, they have an underrated linebacker corps, which largely excels in coverage. Cole Holcomb looks like he may have been a find in the 5th round of last year’s draft. He does everything well, especially against the pass while Kevin Pierre-Louis has issues moving forward but is strong in coverage as well. If there’s a weak spot it’s likely Jon Bostic, who I’ve never really thought was all that good but is clearly doing something right as he’s started 73 games over the past 7 years (albeit on 5 different teams) and is their full-time Mike. 

In the secondary, Ronald Darby, a year after absolutely tanking his value with by far his worst season during a contract year, has returned to form opposite Kendall Fuller, while their two backup safeties—Kamren Curl and Deshazor Everett—have largely outplayed the injured starters they replaced. They benefit from the havoc that the front four creates, but they’re a formidable unit in their own right.

MATCHUP

Defensively, if we win the line of scrimmage—particularly on the interior—we should win the day. Key the run game, tackle well in space, and don’t get killed in the curl-flats. Due to the matchups in this game versus last, I’d assume that last bit will be less of a problem since (a) Smith does not have the arm strength of Allen and (b) the Niners should be more comfortable mixing it up with man coverage. If we do that, expect Terry McLaurin to be moved wherever Dontae Johnson is, and expect Johnson to have some help.

McLaurin is the one dude you truly have to stop in their passing game, particularly between the 20’s. Once you’re inside the 10’s, he can still hurt you, but that’s when the focus turns to Logan Thomas, who—at 6-6 250 pounds—has 5 of their 12 receiving touchdowns on the year. On the ground, I’d guess Peyton Barber takes over for Gibson if he’s out with turf toe while McKissic is their third down back. If we can put any kind of pressure on Smith, and hopefully we can given their OL is better in the run game than in pass protection, we should be able to force plenty of check downs. 

Alex Smith doesn’t protect the ball as well as he has in the past—in fact his 4-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio is well below average. But his stats don’t tell the whole story. His leadership and intelligence have shown through during Washington’s winning streak, and after our showing on Monday, they’re sure to think they can hit our curl-flats as a replacement for some of the consistent yards that they lost with Gibson. This isn’t a team that’s afraid of dinking and dunking when they have to. After all, that’s largely how they just beat the Steelers. This could be a slog.

While I think this defense is for real—and their DL is definitely for real—there’s a chance they could be a bit overrated as of late. They’ve played exactly one team in the past seven contests with an Offensive DVOA in the top half of the league. That was the 15th-ranked Lions, who—even without Kenny Golladay—diced them up through the air while De’Andre Swift totaled 149 yards from scrimmage and a tug. Conversely, during that same time we’ve faced six teams (five in a row) with Offensive DVOA’s within the top 8.

Early in the season the Slurs seemed susceptible to the run—allowing 129+ rushing yards to five straight teams during their 5-game losing streak—but they’ve since allowed only two 100-yard rushing performances in the past five contests, both in losses. In fact, this is a team that is 5-0 when it holds the opposition under 100 yards rushing and 0-7 when it doesn’t. I do think we have a speed advantage so I’d expect the Niners to test the edges early in this game, both in the run, pass, and run-extension swing/touch pass game. In this matchup in particular, the speedy turf of Arizona’s stadium may come in handy. That is, if we can block and execute well enough to create runways for our backs and our receivers after the catch.

While finding some amount of success on the ground and keeping Mullens protected and comfortable will be necessary to be successful on Sunday, taking care of the ball is probably the most important variable on offense. Six straight games of 2+ turnovers is not sustainable, particularly not against a defense as stingy and an offense as plodding (but opportunistic) as Washington’s. 

Protect the ball, stay on schedule. There have been an unfortunate number of games that we’ve lost this year because we couldn’t do those two things with consistency. If we want to keep our playoff hopes alive, that will have to change on Sunday.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Bills 34, Niners 24

This guy tied a career-high in catches [Christian Petersen/Getty Images]

It’s hard to say what was the most telling stat of this game: was it the 449 yards allowed, the 31 first downs(!), the near-ten minute disparity in time of possession against a team that averaged 3.0 yds/carry, or the sixth straight game where we’ve had at least two turnovers? 

All that matters is that all those things happened, and it resulted in a game that was a fledgling shootout until it wasn’t. Now, the Niners’ margin of error for making the playoffs is practically zero.

OFFENSE

Save for two clunker drives in the first half—one ending on third down with an open Jordan Reed incidentally blocking the pass to an open Kendrick Bourne—our offense moved the ball very effectively in this game. With 402 yards on 60 offensive plays, we actually had more yards per play (6.7 to 6.6.) than the Bills did, but in what ended up being a purely offensive affair, we simply didn’t capitalize on enough opportunities.

The Run Game. On our first drive of the game, it looked like we were going to shred the Bills on the ground. Even though we started the drive from our own three and had our ill-fated third down and fourth down runs get stuffed short of the goal line, we had 10 carries for 44 yards on that drive—more than half of our total rushing yards on the day.

But when you look back at the film there are some pretty clear reasons for the Niners’ apparent lack of success in the ground game. First off, we got down in a hurry in the second half so game flow dictated we get away from the run. We threw a pick on the second play of the drive following our half-opening field goal, meaning we were looking at a 17-point deficit by the time we got the ball back. This in a game where the opposing offense was methodically dicing us up and had shown the ability to milk clock without an effective run game. Naturally, we had to lean more pass-heavy. While our first drive featured just over half of our rushing yardage on the day, it also featured just under half of our total carries. That’s clearly not what we wanted. 

Secondly, our raw stats of 21 carries for 86 yards on 4.1 yard/carry don’t hop off the page, but the efficiency rate is deflated due to the many carries we had inside the opposing 5 and the issues we had with those—which we’ll get to a bit more further below. Take out the runs inside the five yard line, which amounted to a troubling six carries for 0 net yards, and you’re looking at a healthy 5.7 yd/carry. While you could do the same for any team and help their averages—after all, the potential for yardage is hard-capped by the yardage that’s left on the field before scoring—it at least helps differentiate our problems in this game from “run game” to “short yardage run game.”

For the former, we had our opportunities for bigger runs, with issues on the interior forcing at least three edge runs to be turned upfield early for short gains and a few edge block miscommunications/mishaps—including Aiyuk’s difficult-yet-horribly executed attempt at a seal block which led to a 9-yard loss from Tevin Coleman (poor Coleman came in for two plays and got buried on both)—cutting down our yardage as well.

Here’s a toss right that shows a number of those issues all at once,

👟⏩ pic.twitter.com/FDJMGor7gm

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) December 9, 2020

It’s a four yard-gain. Not terrible by any means. But now let’s look at how it had potential to be much much more.

We’re in your standard I-form with a wing TE, running a lead toss to the strong side. Wide of the frame on the right side is Deebo, who will join us later. As discussed before, our goal on these toss plays is to hook everyone and ride them laterally down the line of scrimmage. The best case scenario is that we create a runway for Mostert. Otherwise we allow him to find a hole on the backside and gash up the middle for a good gain.

As you can see here, the majority of our offensive line has put themselves in strong position, with their hips and shoulders positioned the correct way and taking away the outside of each defender. Deebo has also come in along the right side, ready to work up on the safety. The path Mostert wants to take — a rocket launch outside of McGlinchey, is in red, and was very close to actualizing if not for two problem areas, circled in blue:

First off, on the edge, Charlie Woerner (who had his first NFL catches on Sunday 👍) has great initial positioning. But the ensuing handoff between him and Juice—one of them is supposed to work up to the edge defender while the other is supposed to stay on the edge man—gets muddled. Both of them end up passing the edge man to work up to the second level, meaning Mostert would have had to weave inside an unblocked man on the line of scrimmage to fit into the outside hole. While possible, it’s not what we’re looking for.

Secondly, Colton McKivitz has gotten turned and lost outside positioning. Look at his shoulders and hips compared to every other lineman engaged or approaching their blocks. If this was a second or so later and Mostert had time to stretch the defense out wide, then we’d have had alleys to run through and it may not have been as big a deal. But since this happened so early in the play, we lose that horizontal stretch that thins out the defense and Mostert has to cut upfield far earlier than he’d have liked to.

Mostert is athletic enough to bend inside of McKivitz and plunge forward, but with the timing and blocking angles thrown off, the unblocked trailer on the backside is able to get first contact, and other defenders—who were being blocked correctly based on play design—are able to help finish the job. The result is a 4-yard gain instead of what would have put Mostert—with a ten yard head start—on a single cornerback in the open field. That’s a house call more often than not.

As for our short game, our problems in short-yardage runs were largely due to interior dudes missing blocks on the second level and linebackers, without the threat of misdirection, committing hard to shooting gaps. And—of course—one glaring weakness…

The Goose. People who know me know that, when it comes to football, the one thing I have in common with your drunk uncle whose best advice is for “somebody to hit somebody” is that we both believe heavily in the QB sneak. When it’s crunch time and you’re inside the one, get outta the gun. That’s why, when the Niners’ opening 97-yard drive was stuffed on the goal line after a failed fourth down run out of shotgun, I was beyond myself.

That is, until I saw Mullens’ attempt a QB sneak in the second half. Six starts into this season, Mullens’ two most notable sneaks have been one where he jab-stepped off the snap and the false start that was sandwiched between an overturned KB touchdown and the ensuing pick in the end zone that effectively ended this game. Needless to say, neither were effective.

I get it, the Niners have had a rotating door at center and now have Daniel Brunskill, who was listed at 260 pounds(!) by some outlets as recently as earlier this year, manning the position. QB sneaks also rely on your guards to get push, and while Tomlinson is surely built for that, I think we can all agree that right guard is a problem spot. That said, we need to get better at QB sneaks. If for no other reason than to present enough of a threat that the defense will condense three dudes over our interior OL and open up other things when we line up under center. Things such as:

🧃✅ for the score to make it 27-17.#ProBowlVote @JuiceCheck44 #BUFvsSF https://t.co/FTkRquLADk pic.twitter.com/1DAtMp7qw0

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 8, 2020

While there was zero chance the Bills were expecting a sneak on first and goal from the six, the reasoning behind going under center still stands. While I’m not necessarily against goal line shotgun snaps—except for inside the one, where I am almost always against them—our run game in the 80 yards between the 10’s is aided by space and misdirection. There’s inherently no space near the end zone, but when we’re under center we can better take advantage of the aggressive downhill play of linebackers via play action.

Even if we’re not gonna sneak. Which we should get better at.

Roll the Dice? While Mullens is never going to be the most consistently accurate quarterback—the announcers made the very correct claim that if he’d led his receivers near the goal line the Niners would have scored instead of turning the ball over—he’s taken clear steps forward since his early-season goings.

Yes, he fired out of the gates by pantsing the now-actually-decent Giants, but it’s only recently where he has seemed comfortable enough both to execute the offense and for Shanahan to give him the opportunity to sling it a bit more. Against the Bills, he moved around in the pocket very well, made off-schedule throws, wasn’t sacked once, and his QBR—which, as a stat, is probably slightly more legitimate than you would think given Trent Dilfer was consulted in helping build the metric—was 70.4, less than 5 points shy of Josh Allen’s. 

The Niners want to run the ball, but teams continue to commit all their resources to stopping just that. We’re not heading the way of the Air Raid, but it’ll be interesting to see if we get more spurts of the hurry-up, wide-open style of offense that Mullens was piloting deep in the third quarter. The same offense which led to three straight drives of 70+ yards, each lasting under three minutes in length.

We always knew that we’d need an uptick in the passing game to open things up on the ground. Perhaps mixing up tempos and letting Mullens get the ball out quick and with confidence out of more open sets will become a more routine change-up moving forward. While we don’t want to get away from the core strengths of our offense, it’s not hard to see how those adjustments could both help our ground game and even keep Juice involved, albeit split out wide a bit more often.

We should know sooner rather than later. The Racial Slurs, who have a claim to the best defensive line in the game, are up next, and it will be tough sledding on the ground.

If it makes you feel any better, here’s a clip of Brandon Aiyuk dusting dudes down the field. He needs to improve his hands, particularly in traffic, and he could do a better job of high-pointing on deep balls to draw flags (which would have assured a penalty in the first clip instead of leaving it up to the refs), but he is getting the attention of DC’s across the league.

In each clip, he’s the furthest outside receiver at the top of the screen.

✈️ pic.twitter.com/KxCi01YV4T

— DefinitelyNotEric (@TotallyNotEric) December 9, 2020

DEFENSE

After back-to-back masterful game plans and performances, our defense fell back to earth quite a bit on Monday. That’s not to say we’re no longer a strong defense, but is to say that there’s a pretty clear formula for putting up points when offenses can execute it: no pass rush + high-level QB who can throw on the run.

Pass Rush. There have been a handful of instances this year where our pass rush has been nonexistent, and we’ve been absolutely diced up by a high-level quarterback. The Packers game certainly comes to mind. The Seahawks game to a lesser extent. But this was the clearest evidence yet that there is only so much you can do when you truly have no pressure on a quarterback who is comfortable throwing both on- and off-script.

Josh Allen entered this game averaging the second-most time to throw (TTT) in the NFL (3.02 seconds/dropback), and if anything this contest improved his ranking. The game plan was clearly to take away the deep ball and force the Bills to move methodically down the field, which is exactly what I would have done given the matchup. However, the strategy simply doesn’t work when the offense can drop back comfortably each play, deliver second-level passes on-time and in-rhythm, and—when they feel any hint of pressure—calmly flush out of the pocket and complete those same passes off-script. 

Saleh attempted to change things up by sending extra men, but these blitzes were largely picked up with ease—many not even accelerating the clock beyond what our four-man rush had been accomplishing. Which unfortunately, wasn’t a lot.

Of the 31 first downs we allowed, 26 were through the air. That should tell you all you need to know about how we defended the pass in this game.

Curl-Flat 4Ever. I’ll admit, the announcers were pretty spot-on in this game as to what the Bills were doing. While they started out by attacking the seams a bit more and working deep crossers, they eventually realized that the Niners had no real solution to simply attacking the soft spot in the curl-flat repeatedly.

In essence, the Bills leaned into what the Cardinals did back in week 1. While the path to get there was different (and much more effective), they played off the big-play reputation of their wideouts, let our cornerbacks bail, then threw all manner of passes underneath them that were too wide and/or too deep for the curl/flat defender to get under. 

Unlike in the game against the Cardinals, the Niners have grown more accustomed to playing man coverage, which was a change-up they used sparingly in this contest. However, in that game against Arizona we had Dee Ford and Nick Bosa. In this game, we clearly did not. While the commentators believed that the Niners could have shifted to man earlier—then quickly pointed out that they were getting beat in those looks regardless—the defense was put in a bind by the fact that (A) man coverage is useless without a pass rush as all deep crossers are likely to be open and there’s only so long you can cover a receiver, and (B) we had a late-week scratch that put Dontae Johnson in the slot in lieu of Emmanuel Moseley.

I’ve been hard on Dontae in the past, but to be clear, he did not play poorly in this game. He was active near the line of scrimmage and willing to mix it up in a largely foreign position. But as a 6-2, 195-pound corner who hasn’t played meaningful snaps in the slot since 2014, he is a boundary corner through and through, and the fact that dialing up more man coverage would often mean he’d be locked one-on-one with Cole Beasley—who pieced us up en route to a career game—likely deterred Saleh from leaning too heavily into man coverage until he absolutely had to. 

Pretty much just a mustache with glasses. While we’d excelled at disguising our coverages in the past few games, this time it seemed like the Bills had all the answers. On a short week when so much was going wrong on defense, I’m not gonna dive in to try and see what exactly were keying, but I can make some guesses. If we’re accepting the idea that we were leaning away from man coverage until forced into it later in the game, then the Bills’ game plan of hitting us with second-level completions along the sidelines is largely effective regardless of what zone we were in. 

As stated before, when it comes to coverage we are inherently a top-down, cover deep-and-play forward type of secondary. We want to stop the deep ball first. We’ve had our current run of success in part because we’ve been able to oscillate between Cover 3, quarters, and man, but if you take away that last option, things change quite a bit. While disguising Cover 3 and Quarters makes it difficult for offenses to diagnose and throw deep down the field, both coverages have a natural weak spot on ~10-15 yard passes along the sideline. If you know you have the time to throw it, have the speed outside to create a cushion, and believe the defense is unlikely to lean heavily into man-coverage, it becomes pitch-and-catch rather quickly.

The good news? We’re still not eliminated from playoff contention. The bad news? We need to win AT LEAST our next three games (potentially all four if the chips fall the wrong way), in order to make the end-of-season tournament.

Go Niners 👍🏈