Good Fits, Sus Value
Our guys
It’s probably worth leading with this: I like the guys we got and how they fit our scheme and locker room. I’m quite high on Mykel, who I think will benefit greatly from being fully healthy in a one-gap scheme. I’m not so bullish on Alfred Collins’ pass rush ability, but he’ll be a force against the run and–if he can grow into mid-level, Armstead-like bullrush value as a pass rusher–he’ll be an invaluable player for us. At the very least, we added two of the longest and strongest players in this draft class at two major positions of need. That’s not nothing. I don’t think it’s out of the question that this draft class will be just as good as last year’s, which would be a massive success. But that doesn’t mean we’re not leaving meat on the bone.
I’ve mentioned this before, but given the topic of today, it bears repeating. The old adage goes, if the Patriots knew Tom Brady was gonna become Tom Brady, they wouldn’t have waited until the sixth round to draft him. They would have taken him much earlier. Well… not really. If the Patriots (and only the Patriots) knew Tom Brady was gonna become Tom Brady, they would have taken him exactly where they took him. Just because your evaluation is strong, doesn’t mean you should throw away value to reach on a player against the market consensus.
This is particularly resonant for us because I think this draft added a lot of good players who are good scheme fits, but saw us reach routinely on guys we could have gotten much later in the draft. And this is not a one-time thing; this is very much part of our DNA as a scouting department. To be fair, getting the right players is and will always be the single most important goal in the draft, and–despite a few big whiff draft years recently–we’re inarguably good at getting and developing good players. I mentioned before that some of our biggest scouting wins (Fred Warner, Renardo Green, Dre Greenlaw) were guys we picked at least a full round earlier than they were expected to go. But so were some of our biggest misses (Tyrion Davis-Price, Cam Latu, Dante Pettis). So while getting the best players is priority number one, routinely reaching on guys gives up the opportunity cost inherent in higher draft slots and shrinks our margin for error.
This connects with another issue we’ve had in recent years, and that’s how we’ve gotten outmaneuvered on the draft board. I have been outspoken in my belief that we were wholly planning to draft an offensive tackle at the end of the second round last year before the run on tackles saw our guys (probably Rosengarten one pick before us, maybe Blake Fisher a few picks before him if Roger was gone) come off the board right in front of us. To me, that was an avoidable error. The Ravens quite desperately needed an OT, and the two teams above them did not. A move up should have been possible. This year, a similar thing may have happened–albeit one that was a bit harder to predict.
With two back-to-back picks at the bottom of the third round, the Raiders took two offensive linemen directly ahead of us, both of whom we extensively scouted in the lead-up to the draft. While I’m not 100% confident Kaleb Rogers (#98) is a tackle and not a guard in the NFL, he is unquestionably a scheme fit who I could see us wanting to try outside. Charles Grant (#99) is undoubtedly a tackle and someone we scouted thoroughly in the months and weeks leading up to the draft. Based on the Niners’ pre-draft visits and John Lynch’s comments of guys we “almost” took at the position, I think there’s a very real possibility we were expecting one of those two guys to get to us at 100. Perhaps you can write this off as bad luck. You rarely expect a team to take two guys of the same position group–much less the same position–in sequence. But while some of it can be chalked up to a bad dice roll, it was only left up to luck because we took Nick Martin at 75 when he was projected to go at least a full round later.
There is a cascading effect every time we reach on a player above their market value. Now, can I say with certainty that Nick Martin would have been there at 100? I cannot. But it’s worth noting that not a single linebacker went off the board between us picking Martin at 75 and Stout at 100. A run happened at the position in the fourth round, so I can understand wanting to get Martin before then, but the smaller, faster linebackers who were so closely linked to us in the pre-draft process (Jeffrey Bassa, Chris Paul) didn’t get drafted until the 5th round because their limitations make them scheme specific. Those traits (lack of size and take-on ability) that limit the value of these players for other teams but can largely be overlooked by our scheme should be a value engine for us in the draft. They should allow us to take these types of players later than they otherwise would have gone, so that we can spend more premium picks elsewhere. But so much of the value that comes from diagnosing the value of those scheme-specific players is thrown out the window when we reach on them as if they were universally in demand.
To be clear, I like Nick Martin and–if he can clean up his coverage skills after leaving the awkward 3-3-5 stack for something more traditional–I would bank on him outperforming his draft stock, just as so many other linebackers have done under the tutelage of Johnny Holland. But there is a difference between sticking steadfast to your board and understanding which guys in which of your ranking tiers could be had later on down the road. We routinely fail to either know or care about how guys are valued in the larger marketplace, and that kills us.
This is a macro-level concern, but our Day 3 scouting and development has been so consistently excellent, it’s not a backbreaker. I don’t think we’re going to suddenly become terrible at finding and developing talented players within our schemes. And I believe we will continue to outperform the field with our later-round picks and undrafted free agents. Again, value is important, but the players you get are and will always be the singular most vital part of the draft. But we do need to talk about offensive tackle. Because, quite frankly, what the hell is the plan here?
You wanna say we got sniped last year and just didn’t have the time or the ammo to move up a few spots to secure Rosengarten? Okay. You wanna say that happened again because we didn’t expect the Raiders to take BOTH of the guys we liked directly before us? Sure. But there is no way you don’t like any other tackle in either of the past two draft classes. We’re obviously picky with our offensive tackles–perhaps pickier than any other position we draft (or don’t draft, rofl rofl). And we clearly think our scheme lets us find replacement-level value from any old guy at the position. But we don’t even have bodies there. We have one backup tackle, and he only started playing tackle last year out of necessity. Our starting right tackle is slated for free agency next year while our starting left tackle is about to turn 37 and has missed at least one game due to injury in each of the past dozen years in the NFL. This is a position that requires development. It wants guys to learn the ropes within a system before being thrust into the fire. If we wanna say that true difference makers are hard to find at tackle and typically avoid the position at the top of rounds because of it? Fine. But if you’re not swinging on tackles with high draft picks we need to be taking a volume approach at the position in the later rounds. Throw bodies at the problem.
The Eagles, who may have the best pair of starting offensive tackles on the planet, spent two sixth-round picks at the position. Why? Because it’s the sixth goddamn round and both of the players they got (Myles Hinton, Cameron Williams) have high-end physical traits. If they don’t pan out, it doesn’t matter. But if even one of them becomes a swing tackle-level player or better, it’s a win. If we can’t bring ourselves to draft tackles early, we need to be drafting them in bulk late. Or, at the absolute least, we need to be throwing bags at undrafted free agents to stash and develop. Was Logan Brown–who could have gone as high as the fourth round–not worth chucking a six-figure deal at to develop? Was Esa Pole–who didn’t start playing football until after high school–not worth a few shillings as a practice squad flier? We know we have a need at the position. That’s why we scouted so many players the past two years. It’s why we (tried to?) sign DJ Humphries after the draft and added Andre Dillard and Nicholas Petit-Frere. But that’s an injury-prone tackle in his thirties and two high-round draft washouts on short-term deals. Are they so much better than a functionally free rookie who we can develop over time? I have no idea what we’re doing at this position, and it’s hard to believe it won’t come back to bite us in the ass.
Day 3 Guys
Round 4, Pick 113: DT, CJ West, Indiana
When you’re an interior defensive lineman wearing a single-digit jersey number, you have to stick out with your play. And CJ West certainly has done that. While he lacks ideal length, he’s a brick wall of a dude (6-1, 316 pounds) who could wind up our best value pick of the entire draft. He is so active and high-energy that he regularly pops on tape, which is often a tall ask for an interior d-lineman. He’s the third big body along the defensive line that we’ve added with positional versatility who excels against the run, but he’s got the quickness and slipperiness to project a sneaky ceiling as a pass rusher as well. He has some DJ Jones vibes in his build, overall athleticism, and potential run game impact, but with more pass rush upside.
Where he plays and how is more of a question. With Mykel Williams, Alfred Collins, and CJ West, we’ve added serious heft along the defensive line—all of whom have played both inside and out. If we assume all three rookies start–more for argument's sake than reality–the non-Bosa spots on the DL have added an average of 20 pounds per player. Given Evan Anderson–whose weight is listed anywhere from 326 to 356–is one of the next guys up, we’ve suddenly become massive along the DL. But how will those guys rotate? Who will play the three-tech? And who is our pass rusher among any of these interior players? Having Saleh back in the building gives me optimism that there’s a very particular plan at work here, but we won’t be sure what that plan–or our DL rotation–looks like until September.
Round 4, Pick 138: WR, Jordan Watkins, Ole Miss
Given our other needs, I didn’t look super closely at wideouts this year, but Watkins feels like a guy who–like many of our picks–was simultaneously undervalued by the league and overdrafted by us. He doesn’t always look as fast as his 4.37 speed, but when he does, it’s usually on his deep routes (only player in FBS with five catches of 60 yards or more). I think part of that is because he’s not as quick/sudden as he is smooth and fast. But he’s got nice feet, and while his big play vertical ability will get most of the attention, he’s shown the ability to contribute on all three levels of the field. That’ll be particularly important for Watkins because—at 5-11, 196 pounds–he is probably more of a slot receiver than anything.
Similar in ways to West, how Watkins is deployed will be quite interesting because just last year we added Ricky Pearsall–who plays a lot out of the slot but can line up on the line as well despite similar size–and Jacob Cowing–who is more of a gadget/slot guy but is more consistently sudden and speedy than Watkins. More likely than not, Watkins is meant to be immediate competition for Cowing, who struggled with the playbook as a rookie, with hopes that he can become position versatile down the road. It’s also worth noting that Watkins—just like free agent add Demarcus Robinson—is at his best stretching the field. This is a trend worth monitoring as we approach camp.
Round 5, Pick 147: RB, Jordan James, Oregon
There were a couple different ways we could have gone with our RB3 addition. I was personally intrigued by the Brashard Smith option because of his speed and receiving ability, but he went later to the Chiefs (ugh). Jordan James is the more pragmatic option and a good value where we picked him. This is a no-nonsense, north-south runner with a ton of experience in zone and stretch runs who can pass block and catch the ball out of the backfield. In essence, James is–unlike so many other backs who we’ve picked earlier over the years–a pro-ready product. He doesn’t have anything close to breakaway speed and won’t be a homerun threat in our stretch game, but he consistently gets more yardage than he should on short-to-intermediate gains. Similarly, he’s not a make-you-miss guy in the open field guy, but he’s slippery and consistent evading tacklers in the hole. And while he lacks Jordan Mason’s size, his low-to-the-ground running style, physicality, and burst through the hole could draw the occasional comparison. James isn’t a home run hitter, but he racks up singles and doubles. He’s a safe pick who can play early with RB2 upside in our scheme. With Isaac Guerendo already in the fold as a big-play man and our reputation for drafting running backs too highly who are too far away from contributing, James is a very solid add.
Round 5, Pick 160: S, Marcus Sigle, Kansas State
Sigle is another good value add and another classic safety fit within our scheme. He’s a quick trigger guy who fills hard against the run and has the range to beat backs to the sideline. He’s a heady team captain type with coverage versatility who can play either safety spot with ease. But Sigle is much faster and more athletic than the guys we typically add on the backend.
As a converted cornerback, he is a smooth mover in space, and his 4.37 speed is legit. A lot of teams like to target safeties vertical and across the field, but Sigle’s got the deep speed to hang and his combine-best 15.13 miles per hour in the first five yards of his 40-yard dash point to his explosive burst. This added athleticism means Sigle actually has nickel versatility as well, making him another intriguing position-versatile player for our defense.
Sigle needs to get quicker, cleaner, and potentially more aggressive on his reads from deep, and that trickles down to his pursuit angles. At 5-11, 199 pounds, Sigle is on the smaller side for a safety, and even though he’s just a few pounds shy of Malik Mustapha, last year’s safety addition carries his size better and lays the wood. Sigle is a willing and technically sound tackler, but he doesn’t drive guys back like Mustapha does. With Stigle, Stout, and Martin, I am starting to get a little worried about our lack of size in the back seven. Still, Sigle is a good-looking player and intriguing chess piece who–given Mustapha’s recently reported late-season injury–could see playing time sooner rather than later.
In Robert Saleh’s first press conference back in the bay, he expressed an interest in staying a couple of years ahead of the way offensive schemes are moving. It’s probably worth noting that he spent the bulk of last season with the Packers, around a scheme that liberally uses three-safety nickel sets on both base and passing downs. Yes, Mustapha’s injury has made the need for more competition at safety more dire, but in drafting Sigle we’ve now added a rookie and two veteran starters to the position group this off-season. With an elite coverage linebacker gone in Dre Greenlaw, is there a chance we start to see more DB-heavy sets that lean into scheme-versatile safeties/slots?
Round 7, Pick 227: QB, Kurtis Rourke, Indiana
Did we need to draft a quarterback? Probably not. But adding late-round QB3 competition for Tanner Mordecai was always a possibility, and Rourke–who is recovering from an ACL tear that he played last season on(!)–is a good candidate for a PUP list/IR stash and redshirt year. Rourke may get some Brock Purdy comps, but he’s probably closer to our backup, Mac Jones. He’s a smart pocket passer with better arm talent than expected, who can look great when he’s in the rhythm of an offense but struggles when things get hectic around him. His injury history is also a massive red flag, with two ACL injuries to his right knee the most glaring concern. Still, this is the 7th round. If he can get healthy, he’s got a ceiling of a future QB2. That’s worth something, even if it’s mostly insurance and a shot at an eventual comp pick.
Round 7, Pick 249: OG, Connor Colby, Iowa
Another good value add this late in the draft, Colby is a classic Iowa lineman with a genuine chance to stick on the roster. Because he played at Iowa, he has a ton of reps running the same zone, stretch, and counter concepts that make up the core of our run game. He’s an impressive athlete with a good first step, with the edge as a run blocker required to play football at Iowa. He’s a little on the light side, which is exacerbated by his high pad level and his erratic striking ability. And–because he played at Iowa (did I mention he played at Iowa?)–his pass protection ability is less tested than most and largely a work in progress. But as a four-year starter for the Hawkeyes and a former Freshman All-American, don’t be shocked if Colby takes a similar path as guys like Justin Skule and Nick Zakelj before him: a long apprenticeship with a few spot starts sprinkled in in the hope that he can become a discount starter or swing later down the road.
Round 7, Pick 252: WR, Junior Bergen, Montana
You wanted special teams help? How about the FCS all-time leader in career punt return touchdowns? Bergen’s eight(!) punt return TDs show his best talent–the ability to make plays in open space, particularly in the return game. But there’s a reason Bergen was the only player we drafted who I’d never heard of: his electric punt return ability never quite translated to the offensive side of the ball. He’s a natural space runner with a particular affinity for the high-speed dodgeball of punt return duties, but at 5-9, 184 pounds, you’d really prefer if he had better traits. He’s not that fast, he’s not that quick, and—as a converted running back—he’s far from polished in any facet of receiver play. If he wants any shot of making the team, he’ll probably have to return punts (and kicks?) AND establish himself as a starting gunner.
It’s also worth taking a quick look at our undrafted haul, which–despite including zero offensive tackles–does feature some intriguing fliers.
WR, Isaiah Neyor (Nebraska) is likely the biggest name, as the 6-4, 218-pound wideout with 4.4 speed was described by “arguably the most physically gifted athlete in the 2025 NFL Draft class” by The Athletic’s Dane Brugler. Obviously, he’s a project, otherwise he wouldn’t have fallen this far, but this is a guy who has put on good tape–leading the Mountain West in yards per reception (20) and receiving touchdowns (12) in 2021–before two ACL injuries derailed his 2022 and 2023 seasons. Consistency and durability are not strong suits here, but he’s well worth a flier given his upside.
The Niners have had a lot of success with undrafted defensive linemen over the years, with both Kevin Givens and Evan Anderson expecting major roles in the rotation this season, so DT, Sebastian Valdez (Washington) is quite an interesting add. Like Anderson, there was a bidding war for the powerful Valdez–who originally committed to Miami over 20 other teams before the Dolphins spent a seventh-rounder on another DT. Valdez lacks length and college production but was out of position playing the nose in college, and shows the quickness and power (34 reps on bench press) of an intriguing developmental player.
RB, Corey Kiner (Cincinnati) is like a poor man’s Cody Schrader from last year–a productive but undersized back who lacks ideal traits but has a lot of good reps in a similar running game to ours. Schrader–like so many of our undrafted RB finds over the years–was swooped up off waivers after cut-down day last year. Unless Kiner can beat out Patrick Taylor–who is a special teams regular–for RB4, he could be destined for the practice squad and follow a similar path.
CB, Jakob Robinson (BYU) is yet another undersized DB (5-10, 183 pounds) who tested well (4.39 forty, 38.5” vertical) and played both inside and out in college. His 11 career picks (7 in the past two years) point to some ballhawk ability, while his versatility gives him a chance to stick if he can beat out Darrell Luter Jr. in camp.
G/C, Drew Moss (Colorado State) lacks heft and has short arms, but he’s got good movement skills and started multiple years at tackle in a similar run scheme in college. While he’s almost certainly an interior lineman (maybe center as first position?), he’s a scheme fit who feels like he’s one or two years on the practice squad away from potentially contributing as a depth add.
LB, Stone Blanton (Mississippi State) is a player with an excellent football name who is a bit in the Tatum Bethune mold–a highly productive tackler whose lack of size (6-2, 227 lbs.) and athletic ability (he missed much of testing due to an injury) saw him slip down boards. Former bulldog KJ Wright is said to have vouched for Blanton, who is likely meant to be a practice squad deep depth add at Mike.
Go Niners 🏈👍
2025 Draft: Day 3 Preview
big, big, small, small
Time is of the essence, so let’s get to it.
Round 2, Pick 43: DT, Alfred Collins, Texas
TJ Sanders was my favorite of this cluster of defensive tackles, but he went two picks earlier, and we landed on Collins. Unlike our next two picks, this was not a reach, and his fit in the scheme is clear: he’s going to be a two-gapping nose, and he’s going to be an immovable force against the run. He’s both one of the biggest (6-6, 332 pounds) and strongest players in this draft, with long arms, heavy hands, tremendous power, and better feet than you’d expect from a guy of his gargantuan size. But while the fit and raw big board value make sense, I have issues with picking a defensive tackle this high who brings nothing as a pass rusher.
I know we got gashed on the ground last year. I know we’ve missed DJ Jones in that department, and Arik Armstead after him. We needed a guy like this–a big, powerful nose who could actually command a double team, keep our linebackers clean, and prevent the wide nine from springing gaping holes on the interior. This is why we went with Collins. But is Collins’ limited pass rush upside really so much greater than someone like Jamaree Caldwell’s (pick 86)? Is his superior size and strength in the run game worth enough to give up the greater pass rush upside of someone like Darius Alexander (pick 65)?
If he can put it all together, he’s one of the higher upside players at the position because of his frame, strength, and grip-and-rip/ragdoll potential. But he has one year of good college production (against the run), is not particularly explosive, and has shown zero pass rush moves save for a sporadic long-arm move. Perhaps he can put it all together and grow into a dangerous pass rusher, but his best comp feels like Javon Kinlaw without the injury concerns. That’s not nothing, but it’s a high slot to draft a run game specialist.
Round 3, Pick 75: LB, Nick Martin, Oklahoma State
As we’ve talked about before, the Niners very much have a type at linebacker, and–in many ways–Martin fits that type. He’s undersized (5-11, 221 lbs.), looks more like a jacked-up safety than a linebacker, and is a speedy missile to the ball, with the chase speed on tape to match his 4.53 forty and 38” vertical. His pure tackling production was off the charts as a sophomore, racking up stops at a historic rate despite missing quite a few tackles due to pursuit angles and overaggressiveness, but his junior year was cut short by a season-ending knee injury. There’s lots of potential there, but a few notable roadblocks that go against how we usually pick our linebackers.
First off, Martin’s instincts and vision are just okay. Some of that can be attributed to limited snaps and playing out of position as a Mike linebacker in a 3-3-5 stack defense. As a Will behind a four-man front, those keys and reads could improve quickly. And they’ll have to for him to see the field because he needs to see, react, and clean up his angles to make up for his serious lack of size and take-on skills.
Secondly–and more surprisingly–he’s not particularly good in coverage. The athleticism’s there, but he doesn’t seem to know where to look or what to look for as he drops. That will be a serious problem if it doesn’t get cleaned up in our defense.
The Niners certainly liked Martin’s locker room makeup. He was described by Okie State teammate Ollie Gordon as “the most caring guy ever” and acted almost like a player-coach after going down to injury last season. But his limited size, necessary development, and injury history seem to point to someone who could have been drafted at least a round later. The absolute highest that I saw him graded was in the fourth round, with other outlets slotting him as far down as the sixth. This was a reach. And while our linebacker scouting and development has earned the benefit of the doubt, you can’t help but wonder what kind of value we left on the board taking Martin this high.
Round 3, Pick 100: CB, Upton Stout, Western Kentucky
As I’ve mentioned before, one of the benefits of needing a nickel corner is that you can typically get a decent one later in the draft. Well, at 5-8 and 181 pounds, Stout is fully a nickel, but we just spent a third-round pick on him. That’s not too high for a great nickel. Cooper DeJean was worth a second-rounder last year. Same with safety/nickel Brian Branch the year before. But those were proven high-impact players with at least the chance of lining up at a more premium position. Stout’s size–or lack thereof–likely makes him a nickel only, and while he’s got intriguing playmaker chops (six picks, two pick sixes, and a 30 yards/pick average over the past three years), he doesn’t have nearly the pedigree of those other two guys.
Still, Stout is absolutely our type. While his size threatens the low end of our playable threshold, he’s about the same build as K’Waun Williams, and he is incredibly feisty. His top-end speed might not be “carry vertical” good, but it’s good enough for everything else, and he’s got great quickness, movement skills, and closes fast on the ball. He played multiple years outside before bouncing inside to the slot, so he won’t be out of place if he’s sent out wide to follow a motioning receiver, and–in the slot–he’s an asset in both man and zone. If he were bigger, he’d be a high pick, but the size is an issue. He’s a fighter and plays bigger than his size, but his build can show up at the catch point against bigger receivers and make him more of a drag-down tackler on bigger ballcarriers. Initially, I wasn’t pleased that the Niners spent a top 100 pick on a pure nickel, but after looking him over more closely, Stout is another good fit for our system. But–like Martin–he felt a smidge early. Most outlets had him as a 4th-5th rounder.
TAKEAWAYS
The Niners have their draft board, and they follow it. That’s what you want them to do. Sometimes that pays off in a big way (Renardo Green, taken 44 spots before his consensus big board ranking) and sometimes it doesn’t (Tyrion Davis-Price, taken 178(!) spots before his big board ranking). It’s not lost on me that Nick Martin, who was drafted 95 slots ahead of his big board ranking, is being brought in to replace Dre Greenlaw, who was drafted 97 slots ahead of his big board ranking. For the record, Fred Warner was drafted 46 spots “early.” That is to say, not all reaches are created equal, and while we can (rightfully) complain about lost marginal value, we won’t know until the season is well underway which were the good moves versus the bad.
Two more things before we go into potential targets and positions of need for the last day of the draft. First off, we spent our four picks filling our four biggest positions of need. That’s always the dream, but it isn’t always a realistic possibility. And whether or not we reached on players to fill those needs, doing so lets us approach the last four rounds (and our last seven picks) with a lean towards pure value over need. That’s a good place to be.
Lastly, there may be a shift coming in our defensive scheme. Nothing groundbreaking or earth-shattering, but our first four picks have leaned heavily on “big, long, and powerful defensive linemen” and smaller, more versatile players on the back seven. Stout is a nickel, but he has played both safety and outside corner. While Martin has the physical profile and speed that more closely resemble a safety than a corner, and one of his greatest strengths–he’s an excellent blitzer–feels out of place in our long run of four-man rushes and linebackers dropping into coverage. Are we putting a greater emphasis on size on the front four to free up a new level of versatility on the back end? That would help justify the Mykel pick, but–more clearly–the rush to grab Collins in the second. Perhaps I’m overanalyzing things, but I’m excited to see what tweaks Saleh will unveil come the 2025 season.
DAY 3 TARGETS
First off, there are a few just pure value picks worth mentioning. DT Joshua Farmer, DE Bradyn Swinson, and RB Dylan Sampson were all expected to be long off the board by now. Any of them could be value adds in the fourth.
It would be nice to finally wrangle The Ever Elusive Offensive Tackle of the Future. At 99, Charles Grant went one pick before us to the Raiders, but Chase Lundt, Logan Brown, and–if we’re feeling optimistic and very patient–Cameron Williams are all still on the table.
Elsewhere on the offensive line, I’m a big Marcus Mbow fan. I don’t know where he winds up, but he’s a great mover and feels like an excellent scheme fit. Jonah Monheim is a nice interior athlete as well, while Jackson Slater is a bit more raw but packs a punch.
We seem to have run into a bit of a value spot on sliding wide receivers, with names like Elic Ayomanor and Tez Johnson still on the board. I’d also like to point out Jalen Royals of Utah State, a player I thought would go in the second round. He’s got smooth athleticism, good strength, and a natural affinity for zone beating and YAC yards. In the later rounds, Nick Nash could become a bigger possession slot if we’re looking for that. If we want a more dynamic athlete, Ricky White III of UNLV has an intriguing blend of receiving savvy and open-field running ability.
Running back is coming–probably sooner rather than later–and there are a ton of guys on the board who fit our scheme. Sampson is the highest rated, but Brashard Smith’s two-way ability and speed are intriguing. The same could be said of Bhayshul Tuten. While Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Marcus Yarns are more late-round adds with stretch game homerun potential. If we’re looking for more of the inside dirty yardage, Devin Neal or Jordan James could fit the bill.
While we missed out on the meat of the tight end class, there are still some later-round gems to be found if we feel the need. Jalin Conyers gives us a bit of the developmental versatility and receiving upside we passed up when we passed on Warren, while Ben Yurosek is a nice two-way player who could be had at value, even if the upside is less sexy.
And lastly, I still want more DTs and DEs. The need is plentiful. Finding at least one more DT with more pass rush juice to pair beside Collins seems like a must, whether that’s Farmer, Aeneas Peebles, or Elijah Roberts. Alternatively, if we’re really trying to get beefy along the DL, we could go with a bigger body with a nice first step like CJ West or the more developmental Jordan Phillips.
On the edge, Swinson has tremendous upside while guys like Kyle Kennard and David Walker look like nice speed rushers. Jah Joyner is another long-armed potential play if we’re looking for a multi-year development project. And smaller school hustlers Ahmed Hassanien and Elijah Ponder both have intrigue in the later rounds.
Go Niners 🏈👍
2025 Draft: Day 2 Preview
Mykel Williams! Welcome to the Bay!
Other than the giant Jaguars trade, the first 7 picks were as chalk as could be before things started getting crazy with the Panthers at pick 8. By the time we were on the clock at 11, all but the top two defensive linemen in the draft were available, and we quickly chose Georgia’s MYKEL WILLIAMS to line up opposite Bosa. He was undoubtedly our favorite prospect from that cluster of high-upside defensive linemen, so much so that Lynch admitted that the Niners tried to trade up to get him.
To be clear, I would have HATED that move. While Lynch didn’t name names, the team the Niners reached out to and were rebuffed by was most likely the Saints at pick 9, who ended up taking Kelvin Banks and likely were worried the Bears (or even the Niners) would have swooped him if they moved down two spots. Making a move that high in the draft would have likely cost us our first third-rounder, with a late-round pick thrown our way in return. Facing multiple roster holes and a draft with so much talent through the second day, that would have been a horrendous deal for us–tantamount to giving up a starter for a net zero gain.
Thankfully, we have Mykel Williams AND our third-round pick, and I have a few guesses as to why we were so high on this high-upside edge.
Trusted Confidants: The Niners put a lot of stock in the opinion of their “trusted confidants” on the college football scene–guys who they believe tell it to them straight and accurately about prospects. Herm Edwards (Aiyuk, Pearsall) has been one of those guys. The Notre Dame OL coach (McGlinchey, Banks) has been another. A lot has been made of Lynch’s effusive praise of Dan Lanning and how that probably points to us taking an Oregon player at some point in this draft. But for these purposes, we’re talking about Will Muschamp.
Muschamp was the head coach at South Carolina when we drafted Deebo and Kinlaw and is now the defensive coordinator at Georgia. The Niners undoubtedly reached out to him to discuss Mykel Williams, and he almost certainly gushed both about Williams’ trajectory as a pro and his impact on the Georgia locker room. For our staff, those kinds of recommendations speak volumes.
Locker Room Impact: We had a stellar 2024 draft in part because we spent our picks on seasoned vets, locker room leaders, and super high-character guys. For better or worse, when the Niners have success with something, they like to stick to it until they’re knocked off that path. So if it came down to a tiebreaker between Williams and some of the other defensive linemen in this range, his highly vouched-for character could have sealed the deal.
Run Defense PTSD: But what about Jalon Walker–another Georgia standout who’s been lauded for his leadership abilities? I think the Niners were quite snake-bitten by how poorly their run defense performed over the last two seasons, and with a new Will linebacker in tow and a new defensive line in the making, they wanted to make sure their edge could actually set the edge in the running game. Mykel’s size, strength, and length would give him the edge over someone like Walker.
I said before that the Niners needed to draft guys with a short-term role and a long-term plan, and Mykel will start immediately. To be fair, our depth chart basically dictates that. But as Mykel develops his pass-rush ability, he should slide in quickly as a force against the run. That’s where he’s more developed, and that’s where he can make an impact right away while he figures everything else out.
Positional Flexibility: Walker got all the pub for his versatility on the Bulldogs, and rightfully so, but Mykel lined up everywhere from end to tackle to stand-up rusher at Georgia, and he has the size, length, and power to moonlight on the interior from time to time. To be clear, Mykel is absolutely an edge in our defense, but he has enough heft to do some inside passing down work and be employed on the twists and stunts that made former Niners Arden Key and Charles Omenihu extra useful in their time in the Bay. That gives us some flexibility when our defensive line desperately needs it and raises Williams’ floor a bit if he never becomes a truly dominant outside rusher. Arik Armstead was never an elite pass rusher, but he was an excellent overall defensive lineman in part because he could play the edge on base downs, rush the passer from the interior, and stop the run from both positions. Williams isn’t as big or as tall and long-levered as Armstead, but there’s some risk mitigation in that positional flexibility.
Upside: Of course, when you’re picking at 11 you want a guy with a legitimate ceiling, and Mykel has that. A former five-star recruit, Williams was a top 5 shoe-in heading into the season based on his size, traits, and trajectory, but that ascension was stalled by an ankle injury in the season opener. Later, it was revealed to be a grade 2 high ankle sprain. Williams missed two games before gutting out the rest of the season in great pain. While the toughness is commendable, you gotta wonder if the Bulldogs shoulda stepped in at some point and let him rest… nevertheless, there’s optimism that Williams’ 2024 tape–still good enough to get him drafted at 11–isn’t truly indicative of where his game is at now and is nowhere near where his game could wind up later.
It’s also worth mentioning the Bulldogs’ scheme and how they deployed Williams. Due to the positional versatility and size we mentioned earlier, as well as Georgia’s style of defense, Williams wasn’t allowed to pin his ears back and just one-gap rush the passer every down like the A&M or Ole Miss guys. And even when he was on the edge and asked to rush, he often lined up inside eye of the tackle, a naturally disadvantageous pass rushing alignment but one that let him muck up the edges in the run game. The Niners feel like they’re leaning more into twists and stunts this year and Mykel will certainly play some snaps inside, but getting to streamline and simplify his assignment from the wide 9 should pay dividends to his pass rush development.
We also at least saw his potential flash throughout his career, and it was often in the biggest games of the year. As a true freshman, he had 5 tackles, 2 TFLs, and a sack against Ohio State in the CFP semifinal. This year, on a bum ankle, he had 4 sacks in two games against Texas, destroying Kelvin Banks in their early-season matchup.
Finally, it’s worth reiterating the fact that he’s 20 years old. He’s one of the youngest players in a draft that has a lot of sixth year seniors due to the COVID extension. He’s nearly four years younger than potential round 2 target DT Darius Alexander. He’s nearly five years younger than WR Nick Nash from San Jose State.
The sky is the limit, but there’s certainly work to be done. We’ve talked in the past about traits that players either develop or they don’t, like quarterback anticipation, linebacker instincts, and–in defensive linemen–a pass rush plan and the ability to smoothly sequence moves when plan A doesn’t work. These are the traits that so often separate good college players from legitimate pros. We don’t know if Williams can develop the moves and countermoves that he’ll need to succeed, and–unlike Shemar Stewart or Walter Nolen–he doesn’t have the elite first-step quickness to just get by with early wins if he doesn’t. But the length, strength, bend, and overall movement athleticism are there to be a top-end player.
For now, I’ll leave you with this little video blurb on Mykel Williams from former NFL linemen Brian Baldinger:
ROUND 2
Defensive Tackle reigns supreme, and so does our need for it. Tyleik Williams was a favorite of mine at 43 but came off the board at 28 to the Lions. However, there are still several guys in that same tier who could be nice scheme and value fits at 43. Darius Alexander is the strong man, a still ascending talent with long arms and good power. TJ Sanders is the overlooked one, with the best polish of the three despite playing football for the shortest amount of time. Shemar Turner is the disruptor, a one-gap shooter with plenty of twitch and (for better and worse) combativeness. I’d be happy to add any of those three.
It is my heavy preference to go DT here given our need for multiple additions in this draft, but–if there’s a run on the position or we really wanna test the class’ depth (and our nerves)–there are a couple of other options that match value and need.
If we want to address linebacker, Carson Schwesinger is a great fit at a good value. I’ll also throw out a name that wasn’t on any of the write-ups, and that’s Nick Emmanwori. It’s a pure shot in the dark and seems unlikely, but we love converting safeties to linebackers, and what better safety to mold than the 6-3, 220-pound one who runs a 4.4 and already is at his best in the box?
I’m still not convinced we want to take an offensive tackle this early, but Aireontae Ersery is the only one who makes sense if we do. Given the number of teams picking before us in the second, I’d be surprised if he’s actually on the board by the time we’re up.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning Will Johnson’s massive draft tumble. This is far more surprising than Shedeur Sanders’ fall, but it’s not hard to see why. Whether it’s just bad timing and injuries or something else, he seemed to phone in too much of the year. That’s a red flag for teams. So is not running a 40-yard dash when you’re a bigger corner whose biggest question is deep speed. Still, the scheme fit and the potential are strong. Like tackle, it feels high for a cornerback, but Johnson’s slip could predicate a move on the position sooner rather than later. Then again, we might have someone like Shavon Revel Jr ranked higher than him… that said, Johnson likely goes in the first 5 picks of the second round.
As for who might actually be available when we pick at 43? Cleveland and Chicago both have two picks each. After adding Mason Graham and Maliek Collins this offseason, while still retaining Shelby Harris and last year’s second-rounder Michael Hall, the Browns are set at defensive tackle. That strikes two picks off the list who could snag one of our guys. Chicago spent two second-day picks on DTs just last year and could be in the market for Ersery—even though I’d guess Houston snags him first after shipping out Laremy Tunsil this off-season. You’d assume the Bears wouldn’t make it three second-day DTs in two years, but it’s a new regime and a deep class, so anything is in play. My guess is one of those picks goes running back to get ahead of the run, and the other is a wildcard. After passing up on Abdul Carter, the Titans feel like a landing spot for one of those slipping edges—either Mike Green or Donovan Ezeiruaku—but they could also swing on a guy like Luther Burden if they’re desperate to provide Ward weapons sooner rather than later. The Raiders or the Saints feel like great landing spots for Will Johnson, with the Saints and the Browns the most likely contenders for fellow draft-slipper Shedeur Sanders. Finally, the Pats went on a spending spree to address (or at least patch up) a lot of their major needs this off-season, but they could add talent anywhere—including along the OL despite just drafting Will Campbell.
Obviously, all this can quickly go to shit with the high number of trades that often go down at the top of the second. But it feels like—if we want it—one of those three defensive tackles. If not, don’t be shocked if we try to trade down.
ROUND 3
If we haven’t gotten a DT yet, this is it, and it’s tough to determine which of these guys may still be available. Omarr Norman-Lott is the most intriguing one of the bunch (and could be a dark horse in the second), but his market is hard to sus out. He’s a very scheme-specific evaluation, and if we think he can play heavy snaps and have a pulse against the run, he could easily slot in somewhere ahead of dudes higher on most boards. Jordan Burch is a defensive end, but is 6-4, 280 pounds. I don’t think the slide inside is expected at the moment, but he’s worth tossing on the list. Joshua Farmer is a guy who I don’t love as much in the second round (where he may wind up), but would be a fan of in the third. He’s got some two-gap ability along with pass rush potential, making him the only surefire two-way guy in this cluster. By the end of the round, Aeneas Peebles may have his name called. He’s a hyper-productive pass rusher but is vastly undersized. With all most of these guys, you’d kinda want to pair them with a bigger body on the interior. Perhaps Evan Anderson is that guy—and if not, there are plenty more dudes later in this draft who can do a DJ Jones impersonation—but this is why taking a DT in the second makes the board a bit clearer moving forward.
We could wait until the fourth, but we’ll at least strongly consider leaving this round with a starter caliber player at Will linebacker. Chris Paul Jr. is the big name to watch here, although Jeffrey Bassa could sneak into this round as well. I’d prefer to pick either at 100 versus 75, but we’ll see how the board shakes out. If we’re high enough on guys like Bassa and the “other” UCLA linebacker (Kain Medrano), kicking this need to the fourth could wind up prudent. Or it could dominate us ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
By the third round, it feels like we’re creeping into more likely offensive line territory. Charles Grant is my guy here, and I prefer him over Anthony Belton–a prospect whom the Niners spent one of their 30 official visits bringing into Santa Clara. Belton’s a mauler with FBS reps, but I worry about the movement skills. Marcus Mbow is another guy I just really like in general. He’s light and has short arms, so I don’t know if he sticks at tackle, but he’s a great athlete and a scheme fit somewhere along our offensive line. Given the fact that he’s unlikely to play right away and may not play outside, I’d prefer to wait until the fourth for him, but wherever Mbow winds up, he feels like a plus contributor.
While waiting still makes a lot of sense, we’re also starting to get into potential corner territory. Quincy Riley is someone we’ve done our homework on, and–despite his suspect zone chops and tackling–is a guy who physically resembles what we want in an outside cover corner. Darien Porter is the insane size-speed upside swing. His game is almost all projection, but the size, athleticism, and ball skills are bonkers. I think it’s more likely we take a scrappy, smaller dude who can play immediately like Jacob Parrish, but Porter is worth noting nonetheless.
This is also the first time that I would personally consider adding an offensive weapon. Of the guys available, TE/H-back Harold Fannin Jr. intrigues me because his weirdness and versatility may mesh perfectly with our weirdness and versatility. If there’s a position that the Niners can use better than most, it’s that kind of guy. Kyle Williams is my favorite YAC wideout who you can actually see becoming a well-rounded wideout down the road. Deebo may be gone but I still think we’re at our best when we have someone who terrifies defenses every time we run a slant route. But if our move in the receiver room is to go “big dudes who play traditional wideout,” Elic Ayomanor could be in play.
GOAL
With defensive end solidified, we need to add a starting defensive tackle by the end of day. While I think we’re internally quite high on Evan Anderson, adding two isn’t out of the question. In addition to DT, it would be nice to address at least one of our other pressing needs before the day is done, whether it’s a starting Will LB, a developmental OT, or a starting inside or outside cornerback. Coming away with three of our biggest needs addressed would make for an excellent first two days of the draft, with plenty of ammo and flexibility on the third day to fill our remaining roster holes.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Mock Draft Multiverse
Everyone, everywhere, but please not a running back in the third round
In a vacuum, a mock draft is relatively useless. There are too many variables at play, too many trades to predict (even if most happen in the latter rounds), and too little knowledge of how each of these prospects is wired to make proper predictions. But in the aggregate, mock drafts are a useful tool for examining teams’ potential thought processes.
So, with the draft just a few days away, I did five mock drafts of five hypothetical scenarios in hopes of examining both the variance that comes with the draft and the constants that we can (theoretically) rely on. Granted, these “constants” are based hugely (if not entirely) on my own personal biases, how I see this draft class, and how I expect the Niners to (roughly) act. I have a decent track record on prospect assessment, but when it comes to predicting the Niners’ actual draft decisions? Shit. I’m just as dart-throwy as the next guy. This is more of a thought exercise.
THE THOUGHT PROCESS
I wanted each of these mock drafts to come from some shred of reason, which meant narrowing down candidates at pick 11 and going from there. I tossed around a lot of names during the first round preview, so now to cull the herd.
First off, I don’t think we’re taking a cornerback. I just don’t believe that’s how Lynch and Shanahan want to build this roster, particularly with the glaring holes we have in the trenches. Renardo Green (pick 64) is the highest we’ve taken a corner, and that was when we had far fewer roster holes. Typically, this is a position we address in the later rounds because we believe we can get startable production through scheme fits. So that eliminates Will Johnson and Jahdae Barron.
The Niners put more capital into the defensive line than anywhere else, so there’s certainly a chance we go defensive tackle at 11. But unless Mason Graham somehow slips, I don’t know if the value makes sense. Each of the other first-round graded DTs (Kenneth Grant, Walter Nolen, Derrick Harmon) has a chance of slipping into the second round, and that round is already loaded at the position. If we trade down, a defensive tackle seems highly plausible (mock draft #4), but at 11, I’m leaning away from it because of how much value there is later on.
Tight end is a luxury pick, but Tyler Warren is still a wildcard. I wouldn’t guess we pick him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we do. Thus, he gets his own mock draft (#3).
The Niners spent a big chunk of last summer telling us how good they were along the offensive line and how little sense it made to invest major capital on the position… so 11 feels high for an offensive tackle. But we’ve been doing our homework on the position, and I think there’s a shot. Membou’s a scheme fit, and his athletic profile would be hard to turn down if he falls, but that’s unlikely. I don’t know how they have these first-round(ish) guys ranked, but—if his medicals checked out on his visit—don’t be surprised if Josh Simmons is a wildcard. So, mock draft #2 will include a first-round tackle.
By now, you can probably guess where I’m going with our first pick. We know the Niners value defensive linemen. We know they desperately need a pass rusher to pair opposite Bosa. If we stick at 11, I think our most likely pick is at defensive end. Realistically, there are three to choose from.
I like Jalon Walker the prospect, but I don’t love Jalon Walker the fit. Fresh off a year of being gouged on the ground, I think the Niners will be scared of his lack of size on the edge. I also think he’s the most likely of these three to get drafted in the top ten, probably by a 3-4 team that can play him in a hybrid role.
That means we’re down to two: Shemar Stewart and Mykel Williams. Neither was particularly productive in college. Both are developmental projects with traits over skill. Mykel has more production and a bit more polish, plus the excuse of an ankle injury he played on through the 2024 season, but Shemar has the better pure traits. In fact, those traits are exceptional. If I had to guess, I’d say we lean Stewart because we love betting on traits and banking on Kocurek to coach ‘em up. But I wouldn’t be shocked if we go either way. And there’s honestly a world where someone snipes us for Stewart before we’re even on the board. Regardless, mock draft #1 will include a defensive end in the first round.
Am I in love with drafting a boom-bust project at 11? Not really. But I’m onboard. Edge rushers aren’t like quarterbacks. You don’t have to be crazy productive in college to get there as a pro. Odafe Oweh (1st Rd, 2021) had zero sacks in his last year in college. Clay Matthews (1st RD, 2009) had 5.5 across four years. Danielle Hunter (3rd, 2015) had 4.5 (same as Stewart). All of those guys became high-level pass rushers in the NFL. And while there are plenty of other toolsy prospects who never put it together in the pros, a raw edge becoming a dominant pass rusher is more common than you think.
#1: Back to Basics
IMO, our most likely first-round pick
The closest thing we’ve got to a meme draft, we spend our first three picks (and five overall) on defensive linemen and 7 of 11 on defense. At the bottom of the third, we’re able to secure our tackle of the future in Charles Grant—a small school prospect I’m quite high on—followed shortly by a potential immediate starter at linebacker in Chris Paul Jr. There are a handful of linebacker prospects in this class who seem like good fits and a few who seem like excellent fits. Paul is the latter. Brashard Smith’s wheels and his background as a receiver intrigue me. If you’re adding an RB3, might as well pick one who has some gadget ability and positional flexibility for when the rest of the room is healthy. Corner is pushed down to the fifth round, but that’s kinda what we do (DJ Reed, Sam Womack, DeMo, Darrell Luter), and there’s a good chunk of value/scheme fit in that region.
#2: A Real Live Offensive Tackle
If he knocks his interview (and medicals) out of the park, there’s a chance.
A first-round pick at OT naturally makes this draft a bit more offensive-leaning, but it’s still mostly a defensive affair. The turns at the top of the second and third continue to be ripe with defensive linemen, and we add two upside plays in Senior Bowl and workout warrior Darius Alexander and the raw but rapidly ascending Oluwafemi Oladejo—whose market is murky but I like quite a bit.
Harold Fannin Jr. is our chess piece addition. He feels like a weapon as a move tight end and—eventually—heir apparent at fullback, but how many snaps he can garner this year is a big TBD. In the fifth, we tap the ripe DT market with a super productive pass rusher in Jared Harrison-Hunte. If he can develop into a full-timer, that’s icing on the cake, but his pass rush ability alone is valuable this late.
#3: F*ck It, Tyler Warren
Can Shanahan help himself? In this case, he cannot.
Drafting a tight end early when you already have an All-Pro on roster and tons of other needs is the closest real-life drafting gets to fantasy football. When you pull the trigger on that elite early-round TE early in fantasy, you inevitably spend the rest of the draft scrambling to fill flex spots and make up for the depth you lost by taking a luxury pick early. That’s what we’re looking at here.
However, it’s worth noting that this draft still looks pretty good, in large part because we follow the tight end pick at the top with a very “meat and potatoes” approach through the rest of the draft. Linemen. Linebackers. The less cute we get, the more we can tap the heart of this draft class (even if we get VERY cute in the first round). That’s an important lesson across all these mock drafts.
Chase Lundt’s got the wheels to play in our system, but that OT spot could just as easily go to Grant, Logan Brown, or even Anthony Belton—who I don’t adore as a fit but is someone we brought in for an official visit. The tight end pick early puts us a bit behind the eight ball in filling out our DL, so we take Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, knowing we can play him somewhere. We take a swing on the world’s skinniest legitimate draft prospect in Tez Johnson, hoping we can—at worst—use him like a taller, more talented Tutu Atwell in the slot and by spamming him in motion.
#4: Small Trade Down
A trade down six spots lets us fill our biggest need at better value than if we’d taken him at 11
Doesn’t take long to see the value we’ve gained from trading down. I went off script a bit with a corner earlier and a linebacker later than usual and threw in a third-round wideout to boot. But the extra capital not only lets us add another starter(ish) talent in the third but gives us greater flexibility to hop around and target specific players in the later rounds.
If you like the mental makeup and how he’s wired, Walter Nolen is an amazing fit for our scheme. 11 is earlier than ideal, but in a class with so little consensus, I think some teams are higher on him than his rankings may indicate. 17 could be just right.
Deebo’s departure means we don’t have an easy outlet to force-feed slants when teams go zone. Kyle Williams could shred in that role, take the top off defenses, and shows enough actual receiver skills to hope he can become a well-rounded receiver down the road. That’s a tough combination to find in the middle rounds.
While there are tons of big corners in this draft, Jacob Parrish may fit what we like better nowadays. Smaller but scrappy and versatile. We bookend two smaller DTs with two large ends and address linebacker later than usual with Kain Medrano. His tape is sloppy because of all the missed tackles, but his speed and instincts are a great foundation for Johnny Holland to work with. No running back taken in this mock, but we’ll add one or two as UDFAs.
#5: Big Trade Down
We take a big hop down for an additional pick in the second
Got cute with a couple of prospects just to show the depth and variety of players who exist in different positional tiers around our draft slots. The major addition from past mocks is Carson Schwesinger, who is probably the best linebacker in this draft who fits our defense. It’s a touch high for the position, but we had an extra second from the trade down.
Quincy Riley is an interesting add here because his profile fits more of a man coverage corner, but we’re clearly intrigued by his plus athleticism and ball skills. It's a bit of a swing, but certainly one that could pay off if we mix in more man coverage moving forward. Jackson Slater is a plus athlete who needs some work but could eventually start at a guard or unseat Brendel. A boy can dream…
TRADE DOMINOS
While on the subject of trades and fluidly changing draft landscapes, I wanted to make a little cheatsheet on which prospects available at 11 could entice the interest of which teams. At the very least, it’ll give us some rooting interest in the top ten as prospects come off the board.
RB, Ashton Jeanty, Boise State: A unanimous top 5 player and RB1 who everyone loves, with demand driven by the fact that we pick right before a Dallas team in desperate need of a running back, Jeanty could have multiple suitors. Denver—one of the few teams snooping for a move up—seems most likely, with the Steelers another possibility.
OT/OG, Will Campbell, LSU: With a major need in the trenches and a two-spot move up that would only cost them a fourth rounder, the Dolphins could come knocking. They probably care less which position Campbell sticks at, given their need and the fact that he’s a great fit for what they do offensively. Kelvin Banks is another tackle to watch here because it feels like his valuation fluctuates wildly from team to team.
TE, Tyler Warren, Penn State: The Colts are the most obvious pairing here. They desperately need a more well-rounded weapon in their passing game and a security blanket to protect their investment at QB. Don’t count out the Chargers, but it’s a big move up, and they may be targeting former Harbaugh acolyte Colston Loveland later in the first.
High-upside DE: Most teams kinda need defensive line help, but the Falcons (15), Cardinals (16), and Bengals (17) pick back-to-back-to-back just a few slots behind us, and each team could point to edge rusher as their biggest need. Don’t be shocked if someone wants to make a jump to secure their pick of the litter.
FINAL TAKEAWAYS
None of these drafts is perfect. I purposefully tried to mix and match players I love with others I just like. I avoided any big lucky breaks, both the unrealistic ones (Mason Graham at 11?) and those more grounded in reality (one of those first-round DTs falling into the second), in hopes of presenting bits and pieces of highly plausible potential outcomes. No sense in blue balls for the sake of blue balls. Better to be pleasantly surprised than set up for disappointment.
But what are my hopefully real takeaways from these undoubtedly fake mock drafts?
Draft for Value and Don’t Reach: This should be applicable for every year, but obviously that hasn’t always been the case for us (3rd round kicker fuuuuuu). Just too much value and depth at the critical DL positions to make rash decisions early when you can wait and get paid off down the road.
D-Line will dictate the second day (and arguably the first): This shouldn’t be surprising as it’s our biggest need, the position group we want to spend the most capital on, AND the deepest position group in this class. And given our immense need at both tackle and edge, picking a dude early and getting the need out of the way won’t preclude us from tapping the class again later in the draft.
But that does NOT mean we need to take a DT first: Biggest need + deepest position group can easily lead to some fuzzy math and the belief that we have to slam a DT in the first round. That could be the right value with a trade down from 11, but the depth of this class and the uncertainty of the size and cutoff points of that 2nd/3rd tier of tackles mean there should be plenty of value in waiting.
Save the speculative skill swings for later: There are a few offensive skill players I can get behind taking in the third round (preferably after a trade down nets us an additional third), but anyone we take that high better have a clear immediate function AND a long-term plan. This is not “luxury pick” time.
Wait on a cornerback: It’s somewhat ironic that the Niners seem to have settled on a “type” at cornerback—scrappy guys who don’t need to be that big—just in time for a more traditional crop of large zone corners to arrive in this draft class. Regardless, we believe our scheme allows us to find above average play at the position on the cheap. A team that prioritizes running backs and tight ends needs to offset that by pushing a premium position or two further down the pecking order. This is a good year to stick to that and add starting competition late.
This wraps up the draft preview series! Depending on my schedule, I’ll try to push something small out on Thursday night and/or Friday night to recap the day and look at the rounds ahead. Hope you enjoyed reading, and, of course…
Go Niners 🏈👍
2025 Draft: Everybody Else
don’t draft a running back in the third round please
With all our biggest needs previously examined, part VII of our draft preview series looks at a smattering of other prospects who could be in our crosshairs. Asterisks (*) by names mark some of my favorite prospect/scheme fits.
Wide receiver. Running back. Interior OL depth. These aren’t pressing needs, but they’re all positions we could theoretically draft later this week. Thus, they get thrown in this last-second grab bag of prospects.
Unlike the position-specific write-ups, I’m just going to skip the first round, second round, etc. designations and simply cluster everyone into positional archetypes of varying specificity.
RUNNING BACKS
While CMC and Guerendo make up the foundation of a great backfield, the pantry is all but empty behind them. Given Shanahan’s unabashed love for drafting running backs plus the fact that we’ve had to deploy our RB4 or worse in all but two seasons of the eight year ShanaLynch run, you can bet your ass we’re drafting someone from one of the better running back classes in years. But how patient will we be?
IF WE HAVE TO DRAFT A BACK IN THE THIRD ROUND, AT LEAST THESE GUYS WOULD BE OF GOOD VALUE: I’m not saying we’re gonna. And I’m certainly not saying we should. I’m just saying it would be neglectful not to mention it given our draft history.
Despite facing as many loaded boxes as anyone (Hawkeyes offense, ladies and gentlemen), Kaleb Johnson (Iowa) has tape that looks like a Pee Wee highlight reel. With his decisiveness and one-cut running ability, he rips huge gain after huge gain and uses his big 6-1, 224-pound frame to power through arm tackles as he breaks into the open field. He’s not an open field shake-and-bake guy, but he’s a crease finder with the build of a bruiser. As a runner, he’s a near-perfect fit for our scheme, but he’d need to improve his pass blocking to secure third-down work. (2nd)
A nimble glider with great top-end speed, Dylan Sampson (Tennessee) sifts and glides through traffic before busting into the open field and breaking angles with his speed. His little jukes, sidesteps, and set-ups create a lot of hidden (and not so hidden) yardage, and while his receiving ability is untested, he’s got nice potential in the department. Size will always be a concern, and ball security and pass pro need improvement, but the playstyle fits. (2nd-3rd)
STRETCH SAVANTS: Some of these guys give one-trick pony energy, but all of them excel at our favorite run concept and have speed to break chunk plays on the ground.
A patient runner with tremendous decisiveness and “make you miss in a phone booth” ability both in space and through the hole, *RJ Harvey (UCF) is a big-play runner due to his burst and elusiveness–even if his top end speed is only average for a player of his rather small (5-8, 205 lbs.) frame. He shows nice promise as a receiver, but would need to improve vastly in pass production to garner third-down duties. (3rd-4th)
With testing numbers (4.32 forty, 40.5” vert) that match his impressive athleticism on tape, *Bhayshul Tuten (Virginia Tech) is a homerun hitter who needs to get better at ripping singles. While far from a big guy (5-9, 206 lbs.), Tuten shows strong contact balance and leg churn to slip by tacklers, and is dangerous on any outside run. On inside runs? He doesn’t lack in toughness, but his vision is… a work in progress. Ball security and pass pro are weaknesses that could land him in doghouses, but his upside as a receiving threat is worth noting if he can muster the reps. (3rd-4th)
An absolute rocket out of the backfield who combines elite speed with an uncanny ability to make sharp cuts at full throttle, *Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Arizona) is a homerun waiting to happen, but a bit of a chaos agent in how often he hunts said home runs. He’s cut happy–something Bobby Turner will have to grind out of him–with lots of ups and downs and inefficiency in his game. But his potential in this offense is tantalizing. He only played one game this year due to eligibility issues, so interviews will be critical. But if he checks out mentally, he could be a damn interesting dice roll. (5th-6th)
An undersized but speedy stretch and outside zone specialist, *Marcus Yarns (Delaware) doesn’t have the size, power, or contact balance of a full-time player, but his big-play speed and ability in the passing game make for an intriguing change of pace back. (7th)
JEFF WILSON IMPERSONATORS: With Wilson and Mason gone, we’re sorely missing a “battering ram with soft hands” type of presence in the backfield. Although realistically, this is more the type of player we add in UDFA than spend a pick on.
Eclipsing 1,000 yards for three straight seasons for the Jayhawks, Devin Neal (Kansas) isn’t a throwback punishing power back, but his knack for setting up bad tackling angles and his burst through the hole let him consistently grind out extra yardage. He lacks long speed for the big gain and needs to improve his pass pro a bit to stick on third downs, but he’s a natural as a receiver and runner, giving him great reserve versatility. (4th)
While he won’t win any foot races or bowl people over, Kyle Monangai (Rutgers) is a hard-charging runner who is disciplined in his reads and tempos his runs to get the most out of what’s given. He’s a dependable asset in the interior run game, but isn’t really a receiving threat at this point in his career. (4th-5th)
RECEIVER FIRST: With CMC and Isaac G heading our backfield, we are fully committed to running backs who are weapons out of the backfield. These guys have varying degrees of effectiveness as actual runners, but they can all make a difference as receivers.
DJ Giddens (Kansas State) isn’t super explosive, nor does he run with as much power as his 212-pound frame would suggest. But he is way shiftier in tight quarters than he has any right to be, and that-combined with his downfield receiving ability–make for an intriguing combination. (3rd-4th)
As one of only two running backs to total 1,000 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards this season, LeQuint Allen (Syracuse) has quick feet, good patience, and nice vision to squeeze through holes without losing steam. He’s not a burner, a brawler, or a make-you-miss type, but he runs downhill with good effort and is an absolute weapon in the passing game. (4th-5th)
A former Miami receiver who didn’t convert to running back until this year, *Brashard Smith (SMU) understandably has some technique, patience, and vision issues to address, but he’s a homerun hitter of an athlete with terrific body control and his ability as a receiver–not only out of the backfield but in running routes downfield–is sure to entice our staff. (4th-5th)
While his career never really blossomed as planned after his breakout game against Ohio State back in 2022, Donovan Edwards (Michigan) is a good athlete and a talented receiver who was underutilized in the passing game in college. His patience, vision, and contact balance all contributed to his scattershot performances and underwhelming overall stat line, but his receiving ability is an NFL trait. (6th-7th)
WIDE RECEIVERS
While we’ve spammed versatile hybrid YAC types in the past, it’s debatable what we’re looking for in the post-Deebo/man coverage era. I’m expecting our offense to look a bit different next year, I’m just not quite sure how. So I’m including receivers who fit multiple different archetypes below.
SO YOU WANT ANOTHER DEEBO? These are YAC dominant types who are at their best with the ball in their hands, but their ability to get open in the first place varies tremendously.
With a 7.3 YAC average on his career, Luther Burden III (Missouri) has been so good at generating yardage with the ball in his hands that the Tigers have spent his whole career just feeding him on underneath routes and screens. That’s been great to showcase his athleticism and ability in the open field, but it hasn’t helped his route running, which is very much a work in progress. But the ceiling is there for a complete WR1. (1st-2nd)
Despite his thoroughly triggering name, *Kyle Williams (Washington State) absolutely rips with the ball in his hands, with elite burst and speed and the natural ability to turn upfield for massive gains when he gets a window. His route running needs work, and his hands will likely never be great, but his slippery ability versus press and his excellent deep ball skills give him three S (slant, screen, streak) ability now with the potential for a more complete game down the road. (3rd)
A physically impressive but thoroughly raw size-speed athlete, Savion Williams (TCU) pairs impressive size (6-4, 222 lbs.) with freaky athletic traits and high-level gadget ability. His flashes of downfield ball adjustment and contested catches point to a potential ceiling higher than the Cordarelle Patterson vibes he’s currently giving off, but his receiver skills–versus his “just being an athlete” skills–are underdeveloped. (3rd-4th)
An absolute beanpole (5-10, 154 lbs.) whose lack of bulk is largely unprecedented, *Tez Johnson (Oregon) is a lightning rod whose top-end speed and ability to cut and accelerate on a dime make him impossible to corral once he gets a step in space. He has room to improve technically, and the size and strength concerns are genuine, but he feels like–at worst–an explosive gadget player and vertical threat. (4th)
With a freaky combination of athleticism (4.40 forty, 38” vert), build (6-4, 218 lbs.), and length (34 ½” arms), Isaiah Neyor (Nebraska) has had flashes of brilliance broken up by two season-ending knee injuries and a whole lot of technical work to improve upon. He is absolutely a traits over production guy who will need to assert himself on special teams to stick around long enough to develop them. (6th)
A massively undersized (5-8, 174 lbs.) speed merchant with homerun speed both vertically and on quick hitters underneath, Jimmy Horn Jr. (Colorado) really should have had better production in college, but he has gadget player and return man potential. (6th-7th)
SO YOU DON’T WANT ANOTHER DEEBO? These guys are more along the lines of the Brandon Aiyuk-to-Jauan Jennings spectrum. Receivers through and through with the size and skill to line up–mostly–at the X.
A long and athletic jumbo wideout (6-4, 214 lbs.) with smooth athleticism in and out of his routes and great fluidity tracking the ball, Jayden Higgins (Iowa State) is an ascending X who isn’t particularly sudden or fast but can win on all three levels as a possession receiver. (2nd)
He won’t be taking the top off of NFL defenses anytime soon, but what Jack Bech (TCU) lacks in top-end speed and burst, he makes up for in savvy, strength, and an elite ability to track the ball down the field and secure it in traffic. These kinds of receivers need to dominate press to become more than WR3s, and–in that regard–Bech has work to do. But if he can figure it out, he’s got shades of Puka Nacua in his gritty inside-out ability. (2nd-3rd)
While not as technically sound or polished as other prospects in this draft range, Elic Ayomanor (Stanford) is a big, physical, and athletic prospect who showed flashes of dominance (294 yards in a comeback over Colorado–with a lot of it over Travis Hunter) despite playing in a dumpster fire of a passing attack. There’s projection, but the traits are appealing and the mindset, which includes top-tier run blocking, is intriguing. (2nd-3rd)
Just the fourth player in FBS history to accomplish the receiving triple crown–leading the country in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns–Nick Nash (San Jose State) entered college as a dual-threat quarterback and leaves as a massively productive catch point maven. His speed and short-area quickness are lacking, and his route running–naturally–still needs refining. He’s also one of the oldest prospects in the class–as he’ll be turning 26 this summer. But he feels like a player who will carve out a lengthy career as a big slot. (5th)
A skilled but athletically capped prospect with good size, savvy, and some inside-out versatility, Pat Bryant (Illinois) has a clear ceiling and lacks separation ability, but he’s got the toughness and technical expertise to carve out a role as a possession WR3. (5th)
3RD DAY INTERIOR OL
Cause I don’t expect us to take one earlier than that.
C, Drew Kendall (Boston College) is a fluid athlete and three-year starter who lacks the mass of a mauler. (4th)
*C/G, Jackson Slater (Sac State) is an impressive athlete with good power who thrives in the outside zone but will need some technical clean-up to get there. (4th-5th)
G, Bryce Kabeldue (Kansas) could give us back-to-back converted Jayhawk tackles at guard. He’s got good quickness, plus movement skills, and heavy hands. (5th)
C/G, Joshua Gray (Oregon State) is a lean and intelligent four-and-a-half year starter with zone/stretch athleticism who is severely lacking in bulk. (5th-6th)
G, Clay Webb (Jacksonville State) is well-versed in outside zone from playing under Rich Rod, but his strength is his calling card. (6th)
*C/G, Jonah Monheim (USC) has plus quickness and has started games at 4 of 5 OL positions, but is limited by his super short arms. (6th)
C/G, Eli Cox (Kentucky) is a six-year player with plus athleticism and a lack of ideal power. (6th)
G/C, Aiden Williams (Minnesota-Duluth) is a former tight end and former tackle with developmental athletic traits if he can make another move inside. (UDFA)
3RD DAY SAFETIES
Think we’re happy enough at this position, so anyone we add better be able to play specials.
Jaylen Reed (Penn State) is a plus athlete with excellent aggressiveness, but his missed tackles may remind us a bit too much of Ji’Ayir Brown. (4th)
Dante Trader Jr. (Maryland) isn’t the biggest or the fastest but he’s a good short-area athlete who triggers quick downhill. (4th-5th)
Dan Jackson (Georgia) triggers quick and plays fast when he can move forward, but he’s a bit out of control, and you worry about his deep coverage ability. Special teams value. (5th-6th)
Craig Woodson (California) is smart, well-rounded, and a good athlete. He doesn’t shine in any particular category, but he also won’t make you pull your hair out. Boring isn’t always bad at safety. (6th)
Rayuan Lane III (Navy) has good vision, smarts, and fluid athleticism, but needs to improve open field tackling. Special teams value. (6th)
Kitan Crawford (Nevada) has NFL speed and athleticism but is still new to the position and will need reps and development. Special teams value. (7th)
BLIND GUESS
Drafting a running back is all but a certainty; we just have to hope we can wait until at least the fourth round to do it. The Deebo departure and the Aiyuk situation make me think we’ll probably add a wideout somewhere as well, perhaps with one of those fifth-round picks, but that’s not a certainty. Finally, don’t be shocked if we address either position as early as the third. We have a bad habit of taking those skill guys earlier than we should, but—in this case—there are at least some intriguing value plays around that area.
Depending on how many of our late-round picks we wind up keeping, a developmental player on the interior OL seems likely, as Ben Bartch, Nick Zakelj, and Spencer Burford (more of a swing tackle now) are all on the last year of their respective contracts. I have a hard time believing we’ll roster five safeties, but a developmental add with special teams ability to push one of the vets could be picked late in the draft.
Go Niners 🏈👍