Preview: Wk 7 @ Patriots

The scariest part is after he sees no one downfield and tucks it [Steven Senne/Associated Press]

Opponent: New England Patriots (2-3)
Date: Sunday, 10/25
Location: Foxborough, MA
Kickoff: 1:25 PT
TV: CBS, or wherever you stream it illegally

Highlights from the Patriots look a lot different this year.

There’s no Tom Brady. No dink-and-dunk offense. No Donta Hightower or Patrick Chung. Oh, and also they don’t exist. The highlights that is. Cause there’s nothing attractive about the way these Patriots play football. And that—just like Bill Belichick’s wardrobe and the haircut of his Unabomber look-alike son—is all according to plan.

INJURY REPORT

Tests on Trent Williams lower leg showed nothing broken and that he avoided the dreaded high-ankle sprain. He sat out Wednesday but was limited at practice on Thursday. He’s more likely than not to play… Jaquiski Tartt has yet to be cleared to practice, but if there’s silver lining it’s that this matchup should play well into Marcell Harris’ strengths... Ben Garland and Raheem Mostert are out this week. Garland was placed on IR while Mostert—who was thought to be joining him—hasn’t yet been given that designation. Perhaps that means there’s hope for a recovery under three weeks? Or they’re just putting him on IR later this week... Jeff Wilson practiced limited this week. He’s probably likely to play given Mostert is out, Tevin Coleman won’t be back from injury by Sunday, and we haven’t added any backs... Dontae Johnson practiced in full as of Thursday… last we heard, neither Richard Sherman nor Dee Ford are expected back until, at earliest, after the bye (week 11)... after setbacks in recovery, Ronald Blair and Weston Richburg aren’t expected back until “around” week 13... no word yet on Jullian Taylor’s timetable. He tore his ACL around Thanksgiving last year so, given our luck, we can probably expect him back sometime in 2023.

NEW ADDITIONS

The plus side to our extensive injury list means there are plenty of interesting new roster additions :) [dies inside]

CB, Parnell Motley: Swooped off waivers after the Brian Allen fiasco that shall never be talked about again, Motley was a (mostly) three-year starter at Oklahoma, totaling 39 pass deflections, 6 forced fumbles, and 6 picks in his time in Norman. An UDFA this year, he played only special teams in two appearances for the Bucs but defensively projects as a developmental outside press corner. He has the productivity, functional length and athleticism, and physicality to develop into a potential contributor down the line, but he’ll have to clean up a whole lot of technique and holding issues for that to happen. He’s a stash for the future. In the present, he’s a special teamer. Or maybe we lose all our corners again and he starts next week. Hard to say.

DE, Jordan Willis: In an effort to somehow get worse than they already are, the Jets traded us Jordan Willis and a 2021 7th-round pick for a 2022 6th-round pick earlier this week. Drafted by the Bengals in the third round in 2017, Willis was quickly passed by fourth-rounder Carl Lawson and 2018 draftee Sam Hubbard. Dropped when the Zac Taylor regime took over, he’s been with the Jets ever since. Willis has battled injuries during his four-year career and has as many sacks (3) as he does teams that he’s played for, but he has intriguing present and future value considering the price tag.

Willis totaled 26 sacks in college and was the 2016 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year after recording 11.5 as a senior at Kansas State. At 6-4 275 pounds he obliterated the combine, recording a 4.53 forty, 39-inch vertical, and 6.85 three-cone drill—athletic numbers that were only surpassed on the defensive line by current DPOTY candidate Myles Garrett. Despite the tantalizing numbers, a quick look at his tape makes me believe that he tests faster than he plays and that he lacks the fluidity and bend to ever run the corner as a speed rusher. But that doesn’t mean he can’t present value. In two of his four seasons, on over 500 defensive snaps, he’s graded out in the 70’s in PFF with solid two-way ability. Maybe he won’t beat anyone off the edge but there’s a role for guys who can play the run and generate the occasional pressure with power and inside moves. The Niners are banking that a change of scenery, under Kris Kocurek, on a team that doesn’t suck ass for the first time in his career will better maximize Willis’ ability. 

At best, Willis becomes a second-line guy for the future. At worst, he washes out from the team with his biggest impact being the restructuring of Laken Tomlinson’s contract that opened up the cap space to sign him. But if Willis can land somewhere in the middle and give us solid Dion Jordan-level snaps with our second group, that would give us a major boost to the pass rush. Not because of anything he’d necessarily be providing himself but because it would allow us to slide Arik Armstead inside on passing downs where he feasted (10 sacks) last year. 

TRADE DEADLINE STRATS

GET EXCITED! It’s the minutiae of business and finances in the NFL time. (ham horn)

At 3-3 and with two weeks left before the November 3rd trade deadline, our games against the Patriots and Seahawks will do a lot towards determining if our contention status. If we’re 5-3 and looking at Seahawks and Rams teams with two losses who we hold a tiebreaker over, we’re clearly back in contention. If we’re 3-5 and a solid four or five games behind Seattle then that’s another story.

Either way, I don’t really see us being big movers at the trade deadline, at least not along the lines of the big swing trades that people who follow the NBA too closely keep proposing (Alex Mack on an expensive expiring contract? OBJ still somehow? Sam D’Arnold for a FIRST ROUND PICK???).

Last year when we pulled the trigger on Emmanuel Sanders we were 7-0 and with a gaping hole at wide receiver. In retrospect it would have been irresponsible NOT to have gone after a wideout. We were a clear Super Bowl favorite with a single missing piece, and we were entering an off-season where we had very few key players on expiring contracts. Neither of those are the case now.

While we do have some major roster holes at the moment, those are due to injury, and the guys who are hurt are proven commodities largely locked up beyond this year. Last year, adding Sanders gave a jolt to a woefully undermanned receiving corps and helped develop Deebo and KB tremendously, but there was always the chance of retaining Sanders after the season—especially if the young guys hadn’t developed. This year, throwing out draft capital for a guy on an expiring contract like Ryan Kerrigan—who would be a guaranteed one-year rental—makes considerably more sense for someone like the Seahawks—who straight up lack edge rushers on their roster—than for us. Hedging the future for a season when we’re guaranteed to be missing major pieces—whether at 5-3 or 3-5—makes little sense.

Conversely, I wouldn’t expect a fire sale either. In general, dumping young talent when you’re bad is actually a bad idea in the NFL. Even if you don’t account for injuries or special teams, you’re regularly playing 30+ guys each week. You need depth, and if you’re the guy expected to make that turnaround, then you’d better start developing the back end of your roster with guys who can ball. Regardless, we’re not a bad team nor is our roster in bad shape. So there’s no fire sale incoming.

Lastly, we are absolutely broke. We couldn’t take on a big contract even if we wanted to and why oh why would we want to as we’re entering a COVID-affected cap year with contracts up on tons of our own free agents? As mentioned above, Laken Tomlinson had to restructure his contract in order to give us the cap space needed to trade for Jordan Willis… and Jordan Willis costs less than $600k against the cap. We are eating-ramen-in-sweatpants-in-college-and-then-being-surprised-when-that-turns-off-women-and-no-I-didn’t-just-fart-that’s-just-the-general-smell-of-my-existence poor. But didn’t we just restructure Dee Ford’s contract before the season to open up a ton of cap space? How do we now only have—per Spotrac—$4.5M left under the 2020 cap?

As is the case for most of our issues this year, this problem stems from injuries. Every NFL team has a maximum of 53 players on their active roster but only 46 dress for any given game. That gives you some leeway if someone is hurt as they can be made inactive. However, when you have more than that number hurt or you know someone will be out for a number of weeks, you often put them on injured reserve. Players on the IR don’t count as taking up a roster spot, so you put them there to be able to add a replacement. That will either be a player picked up off waivers (which costs money) or signed off the street (which costs money) or a practice squad promotion (which also costs money). Every time you promote a player from the practice squad to the active roster their pay rate bumps up from their practice squad rate to their NFL minimum (based on their number of accrued seasons). Assuming that player is on the practice squad minimum (they could be getting paid more), that would mean their salary increases by greater than four times.

We currently have—not including Mostert, who could go on IR later this week—a league-leading 14 players and approximately one quarter of our entire salary cap ($53M) stuck on injured reserve—plus an additional $6M on the PUP list. That’s a lot of roster spots to fill and that doesn’t even include the promotions for the multiple games missed by Jimmy G, Kittle, Mostert, Moseley, etc. etc. etc. Basically, our injury issues have been so severe that we’re paying for 15-20 additional players at any given time. While those players are on cheap contracts, the sheer number adds up. Thus, we are broke :(

If there’s any moves coming in the future, I’d expect them to be the kind of mini-transactions we saw with Jordan Willis. Deals that add back-end roster depth with a potential to help in the future and that prioritize ADDING 2021 picks. With the huge number of free agents we have up to bat this off-season, the expectation should be that we net a decent number of compensatory picks due to roster turnover—picks that won’t get realized until the 2022 draft. So, due to impending roster turnover, the year delay of likely comp picks, and the fact that we had FIVE TOTAL PICKS in last year’s draft, the Niners brass will likely prioritize adding picks in 2021.

Naturally, one way to add picks is to be sellers. There’s a chance that someone on an expiring contract could get shipped off to a contender to accelerate their comp pick return, but there’s not a lot of likely candidates. Ahkello Witherspoon gets floated every time anyone talks about Niners trades but are we in the position to trade cornerbacks right now? Also, it’s not without question that Witherspoon—given the impending turnover at the position and the Niners’ prioritization of familiarity within their system—is actually re-signed in the off-season to a cheap short-term deal (ala Jimmie Ward 2019). Perhaps Dante Pettis, who has been inactive for multiple games this year and still has two seasons left on a rookie deal. But what’s the market for a guy who hasn’t played in practically a year? If you get into veterans on expiring deals you could float the idea of Richard Sherman, as his ten years in the league means he could net us only a fifth-round comp pick, but he’s a captain who’s also on IR. Maybe K’Waun, one of the better nickel corners in the league? But he’s currently on a massive deal of a contract, would probably be a cheaper re-sign than someone like Sherm, and is also… on IR.

Again, this is purely conjecture, and the Niners’ salary cap situation, .500 record, and commitment to maintaining locker room chemistry likely means that if there are any other moves on the horizon, they’re more like Jordan Willis-level ones—with the 2021 draft and the 2021 season in mind.

OFFENSE

Gimme five if half of your season’s yardage was from a single game [Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire]

November 3, 2019 marked a monumental shift for two AFC Powers. For the upstart Ravens, their shellacking of the then 8-0 Patriots cemented themselves as a legitimate contender. While the Patriots would only win one more game by more than a single score before getting ousted in the Wild Card round and saying goodbye to their future Hall of Fame quarterback. But this wasn’t a changing of the guard so much as a wake-up call for Bill Belichick. He saw what John Harbaugh did in Baltimore and realized that it was indeed still possible to be a supremely run-heavy team in 2020, but only if you had a running threat at quarterback. 

In this year’s draft the Patriots selected zero receivers, two tight ends, two run-blocking offensive linemen, and signed former MVP Cam Newton off the street. In came the zone read and inverted veer concepts that you naturally add to your playbook when you have a 6-5 245-pound battering ram at quarterback. While the offense doesn’t rely as heavily on those option concepts as the Ravens, adding the threat of the QB run has opened up the rest of their rushing game.

Cam’s 11.5 carries per game—combined with tons of two-running back sets, reverses, and fly sweeps to anyone and everyone who could ever threaten to hit the edge—makes for a ground game that rides on the power of its offensive line and the incredible diversity of its rushing schemes. They can hit you with a fly sweep off a zone look, a quick pitch off motion away, a counter trey out of double tight, then an inverted veer keeper with a leading fullback all on the same drive. This makes for a considerably less explosive and exciting offense than Baltimore’s, but provides many of its other benefits. The power run game limits negative yardage and makes the Patriots more dangerous and more willing to go for it on fourth-and-short, the constant use of play action makes for much easier to read defenses and inflates passing statistics with easy completions, and that same play action means the offensive line can maul in the run game and rarely has to engage in drop back pass protection—where potential weak spots could be exposed. That’s the theory at least.

Through the air they’ve discarded much of the short-to-intermediate pinpoint timing routes that Brady thrived on for the better part of a decade in lieu of different high percentage throws. They still run their “long handoff” equivalent screens and work levels concepts over the middle off the field, but focus more on passing through play action—particularly on the concepts Cam is most comfortable with: floods, reading deep ball-to-shallow crossers, and deep outs and crossers that accent his arm strength while mitigating his quick recognition skills and accuracy.

Cam’s completion percentage is at an all-time high, but aside from the wild end to the Seahawks game (against one of the worst passing defenses in the league), he is still—as he’s been for years—an inaccurate passer who forces the ball into bad spots too often. He hasn’t made major strides since leaving the Panthers. The difference now is that the Patriots have done a good job of shaping the offense around the threat of his legs, making the passing game filled with concepts he’s comfortable with, and minimizing the load he needs to carry. Through four starts, Cam’s only thrown the ball more than 28 times once and completed more than 17 passes just as many times. As a team, they’ve only thrown for greater than 172 yards once. This is a low-volume, below average-efficiency passing attack.

Their wideout talent is middling at best—although this would have been a really nice game to have K’Waun Williams manning the slot. They gain very little separation and—with the exception of 2019 first-rounder N’Keal Harry—have little size as well. This is still the roster of tons of slot receivers that Brady would throw to on pivot routes and shallows, with Julian Edelman being the alpha dog and the closest thing to a No.1 receiver. He’s not to be underestimated and can pick you apart in the middle of the field, but—despite what everyone who has worn an Antoine Walker jersey out in public in the past ten years says—he’s no otherworldly talent. In the passing game, they’ll throw to their backs just as often as their wideouts and honestly those backs are probably just as dangerous. As long as we tackle well, we should have the speed on the second level to keep their YAC yards to a minimum.

This is an offense that’s ranked 27th in passing DVOA and 3rd in rushing DVOA. The scariest part of their passing game is Cam Newton scrambling. They’ll throw plenty of short passes to the flats to chip away at our Cover 3 and Quarters coverages, but they don’t have the personnel to kill us with that. The focus should be on stopping the run. With the sheer quantity of looks they have in the run game, the Patriots could find sporadic success outside, but I don’t think this team has the speed to regularly get to the edge against our defense. More likely, the crux of this matchup lies in stopping the Patriots’ QB option and interior run game. They’ve got a lot of size on the interior and run 21 personnel third-most in the league to get extra blockers and gaps with just enough misdirection to slow up reads on the second level. DJ Jones, Javon Kinlaw, and Kevin Givens will be important—and our linebackers will need to commit to their reads and quick trigger against the run. If our interior run defense looks more like it did the first four weeks and less like it did against the Rams, we’ll be in good shape defensively.

DEFENSE

A few Pro Bowls shy of a Head & Shoulders endorsement [Getty Images]

On defense, the Patriots aren’t nearly what they were a year ago but they’re still a Bill Belichick coached side that will play sound football and not beat themselves with mistakes. While the advanced stats paint a picture of an average unit, this is a bend-don’t-break defense that is opportunistic in creating turnovers. It—like the rest of this team—does a good job of mitigating risk and keeping the Patriots within striking distance regardless of opponent. 

The Pats run a man coverage-heavy, multiple 3-4 that stresses versatility in their front seven so that they can be flexible in shaping their front based on their opponent. While COVID opt-outs from Donta Hightower and Patrick Chung have sapped some name recognition from this defense, they still have a number of plus performers and—just as importantly—few genuine weak spots. Everyone, even their lower-end roster types, at least does their job. Second-year edge/linebacker Chase Winovich has emerged as their go-to pass rusher while they get the majority of their other pressure off of schemed up fronts similar to the ones we saw—and were depressingly effective against us—two weeks ago versus Miami. Last year’s DPOTY Stephon Gilmore has had a down year but is still a top tier corner, while JC Jackson opposite him has emerged as a potential star. Devin McCourty brings his typical strong veteran play to free safety. 

Through Belichick’s decades-long reign of terror, the Patriots defense has been known for presenting wildly differing looks from week-to-week, with schemes made specifically to take away what you do best. But more accurately, they want to take away whatever you rely on most. They effectively clamped down the Raiders and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks by using a variety of coverages and alignment bluffs to limit their high-volume star tight ends from being the offense’s primary chain-mover. I’d expect the same sort of looks on George Kittle, as well as wide edges and a variety of fronts that are made to stop our stretch game. 

In guarding Kittle, the Patriots may chip with their edges or linebackers but they’ll use their rotating crop of safeties as their primary coverage guys. Kittle presents an athleticism and speed advantage that neither Waller nor Kelce possess, but it will be tough sledding with the amount of shit they’re gonna throw at him. While Kittle always needs to be a big part of our gameplan, it would be smart if we have counterattacks set up with our other playmakers. Bunch formations, motions, and condensed sets are always on the docket against man coverage and could provide an added bonus in opening up some edge space for our running game as well. 

Against our run game the Patriots will rely on power, scheme, and alignment to offset their lack of speed. They are not a fast defense. Regardless of the fronts they show us, we should push the issue outside and find ways—whether it’s with tosses, condensed sets with crack blocks, and/or reverses—to get our speed advantage out on the edges. Using motion and alignment to clear out the edges for sweeps and reverses should also be in play given the Patriots’ commitment to man coverage. This strategy would have been way cooler with the unreal speed of Mostert in the lineup, but it should remain the game plan nonetheless. Expect Deebo Samuel to get his name called in the running game again this week and every week moving forward.

This game could be an absolute slog. This is the weakest Patriots teams in years, but it’s still the Patriots—they thrive on your mistakes and we’ve had a lot of those to date. It’s also worth noting that their losses have been to the Seahawks in a shootout, the Chiefs while starting Brian Hoyer, and to the Broncos after a week where they had minimal in-person practice due to COVID. This is a team that’s better than its 2-3 record. If we minimize mental errors and turnovers we matchup well, but we have to do that for all four quarters. Otherwise this is a Pats team that thrives on hanging around into the fourth and pulling out opportunistic victories.

Go Niners 👍🏈

49ers 24, Rams 16

The only completion thrown towards Verrett all night [Scott Strazzante/The Chronicle]

The reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated.

With their backs against the wall, the Niners turned in an absolutely masterful game plan on Sunday night. While the execution wasn’t perfect—those two third down drops and the Juice overthrow made the game more interesting than it had to be and Cooper Kupp had some chances that he didn’t convert—it was more than enough to close out the Rams with only a few heart palpitations. 

The win also keeps us very much in the running for the playoffs.

OFFENSE

The Niners found an offensive identity on Sunday and it looked a lot like the one we had to finish last year: a diverse, run-heavy game plan with tons of misdirection, a commitment to forcibly out-leveraging the defense on the edges, and a passing attack that got the ball out of Jimmy G’s hands quickly on short-to-intermediate passes.

Our opening drive was a Shanahan Special—accomplishing our goals of minimizing drop back passing, making the defense run side-to-side against our run and screen game, and using misdirection to prevent them from keying any one concept too heavily. We went scored on a six-play 84 yard drive; those plays were outside run, fly sweep, inside run, screen, screen, fly sweep. 

At first look, our newfound commitment to the run game seemed to be a case of quantity over quality—our raw stats showed 37 carries for 122 yards on a mediocre 3.3 yards/carry. But if you exclude the two kneel downs to end the game and add in the shotgun fly sweeps—which count as touch passes in the box score—our line was 39-185-1TD on a healthy 4.7 yards/carry. 

By jumping out to a lead and controlling game flow, our offense was able to stay varied throughout the game. We had 167 yards and two scores passing, 38 yards on screens, 124 yards on handoffs, and 63 yards, one touchdown, and a game-icing bulldozer of a first down on touch passes. That amounted to 390 yards of offense and 24 points against a Rams defense that came into the game ranked 7th in Defensive DVOA.

Jimmy “Greatly Inflated Stats But I’ll Take It” Garoppolo: Despite a bum ankle and a game plan built to protect him, Jimmy G—save the one overthrow of Juice—did nearly everything we could have asked from him. His accuracy and zip weren’t there on every throw and we didn’t ask him to handle too large of a burden, but his career-long streak of never losing two starts in a row continues, and he comforted a lot of very very anxious 49ers fans on Sunday. It’s still TBD on whether he and this passing attack can get to the point where they can succeed in mandatory drop pack passing situations; thus, it’s still TBD on whether he’s the QB of the Niners after this yea. But it’s a good first step towards both under less-than-ideal conditions.

Appropriately Aggressive: Outcome be damned, I’ve liked Shanahan’s more aggressive lean in crucial situations this season—even if the fourth down TD to Kittle was one of the first times it’s actually paid off. 

Trying to score before the half against the Dolphins made sense, even if it led to a Jimmy G pick. “Regrouping at halftime” when down twenty and with Miami set to receive is an excellent way of losing by less but doesn’t do much to help you win. The game is about possessions and opportunities for points. The same goes for our fourth-and-short attempts near midfield against the Dolphins and on the goal line against Arizona—even if we converted neither of them. Critique the play-calls all you want, but going for it was the right decision. 

While this slight shift in aggressiveness may not be paying off in full quite yet, it’s a good sign of things to come. A team that excels at running the ball (which hopefully, we can consistently be) becomes considerably more dangerous if they’re willing to go for it on fourth-and-short. Not only because their run prowess could mean that they’re more likely to convert those fourth downs on the ground but because they—like we did in this game—can then run against light boxes on third downs to set-up those fourth downs in the first place.

Oddly Quiet Aaron: All-world DT Aaron Donald entered Sunday’s game in the league-lead with 7.5 sacks, but was oddly quiet throughout this contest. Part of that was game planning—as the Niners had no interest in calling drop back passes where Donald could potentially tee-off on our recovering quarterback—but appropriate props should go to Daniel Brunskill and Ben Garland, who were admittedly the players the Rams had singled out as Donald’s would-be targets but stymied him all game. While there were plenty of double teams and other snaps where we chipped or bluffed a double team to throw Donald off, Brunskill in particular really held his own against the All-Pro defensive tackle—which is a great sign to see for the starting offensive lineman who’s struggled the most this season. The Rams entered this game leading the league with 20 sacks. The exited with 0 sacks and 3 QB hits.

DEFENSE

The Rams and their top 5 offense saw a stark drop in efficiency on Sunday night. While part of that could be attributed to Jared Goff’s streaky accuracy, we did a few things schematically to take him out of his comfort zone early and elicit those problems.

The Rams entered this game with the league’s #1-ranked rushing DVOA, so we committed from the jump to take away their outside run game. Both Arik Armstead and Kevin Givens—who has quietly played very well in his second year in the league—were disruptive on the interior, whiles free-running Fred Warner snuffed out everything that made it out of the tackle box for minimal gain. While the Rams would adjust and find success with their interior run game off of misdirections such as counters and other runs against flow, by the time they were doing so consistently, they were trailing by multiple scores. But we also did another thing that threw off the Rams’ rushing attack AND confused their passing game:

Hello old friend…

By loading the LOS we took away the Rams’ ability to double team in the run game, and—just as importantly—confused Goff’s pre-snap reads. By starting the game with tons of fronts like this—including five-man blitzes out of five-man fronts on the first two snaps—and man coverage on the backend, we pretty much dared Goff to beat us with the deep ball from the jump.

While this would seemingly be the worst possible plan against the high-flying Rams aerial attack, this year’s offensive shift towards a quick-release short-yardage passing game meant the Rams were wildly out-of-sync on downfield passes. And after an entire week spent prepping soft zone coverages and underneath passes, the Rams basically spotted us their first two drives—their only possessions of the first quarter—before they figured out what was happening. 

It didn’t help that Saleh was gaslighting them throughout the first half. After those first two snaps of man coverage and five-man blitzes, the Niners slowly shifted away from the former and quickly from the latter—rarely sending extra men the rest of the game. But by continuing to show those loaded lines, the Niners bluffed extra rushers and man coverage for most of the first half. They were able to do so because (A) they trusted their linebackers’ speed and ability to make up a lot of ground and still get in good position in coverage even when lined up on the LOS, and (B) they knew the Rams’ short-yardage passing game was based off of play action bootlegs and leak outs rather than the sort of one-step throws Jimmy G feasts on. Basically, they knew the Rams couldn’t beat them to the spot on quick-hitters so they were fine with starting in a position where they’d have to make up ground in coverage. So when Goff saw man coverage and extra rushers, he’d think deep shots or hot routes pre-snap only to see something entirely different once the play was underway.

For instance, that frame shown above—on third-and-eight—ended up being a four-man rush with a Cover 3 Mable variation on the back end. Both linebackers dropped off the LOS, taking away Cooper Kupp—Goff’s first read—and slowing him up just enough that he was a hair late on the curl, which allowed Verrett to break up the pass.

Cornerbacks, it’s nice to have them again: Speaking of which, Jason Verrett has been an absolute monster after stepping into the starting lineup. In three-and-a-half games (including three starts), he’s allowed a grand total of four catches for 24 yards while breaking up three passes and registering his first pick against the Rams. According to PFF, he’s graded out as the third-best among all corners in the NFL this season. Pairing him with the oft-underrated Emmanuel Moseley—who gave up a long TD late and was on the wrong end of a ticky-tack PI call but otherwise played a great game—gave us a formidable cornerback duo for the first time since week one. When Sherman returns in (what is hopefully) a week or two, it’ll be very interesting to see who starts and plays where, especially with K’Waun Williams out at least another few weeks. Regardless, you can never have too many good cornerbacks, and Verrett’s re-emergence has been one of the positives of this season and a great option to have as we move into an off-season where big decisions will have to be made at the position. 

Pass rush, it would also be nice to have again: While we held the Rams’ pass rush to 0 sacks and 3 QB hits, our defense tallied an equally underwhelming 0 sacks and 2 QB hits. To be fair, some of that seemed to be by design. While there’s no such thing as a game plan that would prefer to have LESS pressure on a quarterback—particularly one with Goff’s scrambling ability—the Niners purposefully blitzed less in lieu of more defenders in coverage. This made it harder for Goff to find open passing windows and mitigated potential damage from bootlegs, play action passes, and screens. It’s hard to claim the strategy didn’t work, but getting no pressure isn’t really a repeatable scheme. It would be really nice to get Dee Ford and Ronald Blair back as soon as possible.

Cold water / boner killer of the week: Unfortunately, this is 2020 and the Niners—just like the world— simply can’t have good things. We came away with an important victory but finished the game with four more starters shelved, two of whom are expected to be put on IR this coming week.

Raheem Mostert was once again one of the most impressive players on the field. But once again, we’ll be without him for at least the next few weeks after he suffered our team’s fourth high-ankle sprain. It should go without saying that having Mostert healthy is a major boost to our running game. Even PFF—who has him ranked the #1 running back in the entire NFL—thinks so. We all know about Mostert’s homerun ability—he has the two fastest ball carrier run times in the NFL this year despite missing the equivalent of three entire games and his top speed was the fastest of the past five years—but his work running for tough yards inside has been just as valuable. While McKinnon has played well in his stead and the rookie JaMycal Hasty continues to show a level of burst and vision that will make him harder and harder to stash on the practice squad for an increased role in 2021, Mostert’s explosive speed and power regularly net 5-to-7 yard gains out of runs that could have been stopped for 3-or-4. Those add up in a hurry. All we can hope is that he’s only shelved for the next three weeks.

Also going on IR is Ben Garland, who suffered a calf injury very late in the contest. With Weston Richburg not set to return from the PUP list until “around Week 13,” that means Hroniss Grasu will be taking over for the foreseeable future. Grasu is not nearly the athlete and run-blocker in space as Garland, but he at least held his own in his one start this year.

Jaquiski Tartt went down at some point in the second half with a groin injury and Marcell Harris replaced him at strong safety. Harris is a well-seasoned backup, but it would be real realllll chill if the checkup on Tartt’s injury came back positive. 

Finally, Trent Williams left the game with an ankle injury in the fourth quarter, giving way to second-year man Justin Skule. Like Tartt, the team is currently unsure of the severity of the injury.

Injuries notwithstanding, there was a lot to be pleased about on Sunday night. Whether we can sustain that type of performance moving forward will be up to the team’s ability to withstand (yet another) wave of major injuries. At the very least it was a critical win against a division rival and a statement of our team’s identity. In a season like this, that’s something to build upon.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk6 vs. Rams

Q: Does playing possum work against the best player in the NFL? [Brad Mills/USA Today]

Opponent: Los Angeles Rams (4-1)
Date: Sunday, 10/18
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Time: 5:20 PT
TV: NBC, or wherever you stream it illegally

Two men enter, one comes out. Welcome to the Thunderdome. The soft part of our schedule is over. Now begins our seven-game stretch against teams with a combined record of 26-7, including all of the NFC’s remaining unbeatens.

First up, the Los Angeles Rams.

While last year’s 9-7 Rams finished the season strong and would have been the last wildcard entrant under the new playoff format, it was a down year for what was the NFL’s darling just months prior. Now, with an updated offense and a brand-new defense, the Rams are one bad pass interference call away from an undefeated record. While all four of their wins have come against the NFC East, this is still a team that can make a claim as the most balanced—and perhaps even best—team in the NFC through five weeks. They are unquestionably our toughest test to date and will be an excellent barometer for what kind of season we’re still capable of having.

INJURY REPORT

As of Wednesday… Jimmy Garoppolo has practiced in full (last week he was only limited). He should start again this Sunday and hopefully—for all our sakes—will look and play much better… on the flip side, Kwon Alexander, who was just starting to play his best football of the season, suffered a high-ankle sprain (though I have no idea when). As a player who has to run a lot, that would keep him out an estimated 4-6 weeks. This means Dre Greenlaw slides into his spot and Azeez Al-Shair, whose had a few rough outings, will be our Sam linebacker... there was hope that we’d have our two top corners back this week. While Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) practiced no-contact on Wednesday and has a real shot to return based on how he finishes the last stages of the concussion protocol, Richard Sherman (calf) never even returned to practice after a setback at some point during his rehab. He is—for the third week in a row—hopeful to return next week. At least Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) was off the injury report on Wednesday and is good to go… I totally miscounted in the Dolphins recap. We’re now on week 6, meaning Ronald Blair, Jullian Taylor, and Weston Richburg are still at least one week away from returning.

OFFENSE

Sean McVay comes from the Shanahan offensive tree (even if he often gets credit for many elements of it), which means the Rams run lots of zone and stretch and rely heavily on play action passes. The key differences between our scheme and the Rams’ is that (a) they run considerably lighter personnel sets—choosing instead to have wideouts in bunch formations and condensed splits who do tight end/fullback roles rather than the other way around, (b) they rely much more on deep passes versus the short-to-intermediate game, and (c) their schemes are often simpler than ours—with the goal being to have a number of different run and pass plays that all initially look the same. While McVay was originally lauded for the simplicity of his system, the equally simple defensive solution of 6-1 fronts and quarters coverage puzzled the Rams for the better part of a full calendar year. So McVay spent the off-season trying to get his mojo back and added a few new wrinkles to mix things up.

Ted Nguyen from The Athletic had a great write up about the successful changes the Rams have made in 2020, but the basics are this: (1) using fly motion towards and against their run game to diminish tendencies and open gaps underneath, (2) stealing a lot of run game concepts that Shanahan used so effectively last year as mix-up to zone/stretch, (3) putting Jared Goff on the move a lot (like A LOT), and (4) throwing the ball less down the field—typically with split-field quick game or play action leak outs that hope to maximize yards after catch. In 2018, Goff averaged 8.8 intended air yards per pass. In 2017, that fell to 7.8. Through four games this season, he’s averaged 5.9 IAY/throw, which isn’t only the lowest in the league but the lowest since the stat started being tracked in 2016. So yeah, in short he fixed their offense by copying as much as he could from what Shanahan did last year and rolling out Goff a lot.

This simpler iteration of Shanahan’s offense has led to a major boost in the run game—the Rams are #1 in rushing DVOA through five weeks—and the three-headed tailback committee of Cam Akers, Malcolm Brown, and Darrell Henderson have helped Jared Goff to the best stretch of play in his career. Goff gets a lot of heat from people (some have even claimed that he’s playing well in part because the stadiums have no fans so McVay can more clearly talk to him and tell him where to throw the ball before the snap), but ultimately Goff doesn’t get the credit he deserves for the Rams’ hot start. When Goff is on, he’s really on and can throw the ball on all three levels with incredible accuracy—especially when he’s throwing deep or rolling out. When he’s off, he’s really off and can look totally lost—especially when he has to scan the full field quickly under pressure. Goff has always been a player of massive variance, but he’s yet to see those lows this year, and when the Rams have been able to move the pocket, work off play action and bootlegs, and in general avoid full-field dropbacks, he can (and has) been lights out. So naturally, our goal should be to not let him do those things.

This fact was no more apparent than the last time the Rams played the Niners, when McVay—in a move that was admittedly brilliant and has in part led to the Rams’ current offense—ran play action bootlegs on nearly every single pass play, even though the Rams’ rushing attack was floundering. This full-on commitment to play action paid dividends early in that game.

Here were the Rams’ offensive stats in the first half of last year’s week 15 matchup:

At halftime, Robert Saleh adjusted to have the Niners’ defensive ends play quarterback instead of cutback on bootlegs, tasked second-line defenders on blitzes to tie up backfield leak out options to take away easy passes, and the Rams’ bootleg hack was effectively neutralized. With Los Angeles having to resort to more stationary play action passes, Goff was less protected and had to read the middle of the field more. While he’d have some success out of empty gun sets—including on their only touchdown drive of the second half—Goff would finish the game with less than five completions out of true drop back passes.

It’ll likely be less simple this time around. The Rams run game is highly more effective this season, their added motion to or away from run action means we can’t cheat our bootleg-side defensive ends as aggressively, we’re down Bosa/DeFo/Ford, and Goff is simply playing much better than last year. That being said, the strategy should still be to force Goff into as many true drop back full-field reads as possible and pressure him when we do. 

If Moseley is back from injury, it’ll be very interesting to see who plays in the nickel this game. Jamar Taylor was no Brian Allen last week but he allowed nearly 100 yards receiving himself (the two combined for something like 214 I believe?). Witherspoon is a lankier guy and I don’t think I’ve ever seen him in the slot so would they bump Moseley inside in nickel packages to get their best three corners on the field? Or would they add Tarvarius Moore and roll him or Jimmie Ward down into the slot? Having capable slot play will be crucial against a squad that prides itself in its receiver depth and still runs 11 personnel 72% of the time. While our linebacker corps is tailor-made to play well against receivers who are asked to do bigger bodied duties, there’s only so much base that you can play against three wide sets and that number decreases with Kwon out of the lineup.

There will be equally as much pressure on our re-made defensive line to have a strong two-way performance. Our young interior has been mostly impressive against the run thus far. They’ll have to continue that level of play in order to help cloud up the inside and cutback lanes and allow our edges to—as odd as it sounds—play the bootleg honest. In the passing game the Rams OL is ranked in the top 10 in every pass-blocking metric imaginable; we’ll surely need to send some extra men to get home but that further complicates how we defend one of the league’s most dangerous screen games. In short, everyone in the front seven will have to be on their toes to win at the line of scrimmage and shrink Goff’s comfort zone.

Given the Rams’ offensive improvements and our defensive injuries, we should go in expecting McVay and Goff to have some success on Sunday. The key will be making them earn it via drop back passes, generating negative plays and turnovers, and clamping down while in the red zone—an area of the field where McVay’s teams have often struggled. We don’t have the horses to shut them down, but if our cornerback room gets just a bit healthier, we have the ability to do enough.

DEFENSE

The Rams were quick to boot Wade Phillips to the curb this off-season, as they believed they needed a fresh face that would challenge McVay in X’s and O’s. To find a defensive coordinator who fit the bill, ownership told their young head coach to “find your own Sean McVay.” While that’s the douchiest and most Los Angeles comment I’ve ever heard—and reminiscent of how Oprah decides lineups on her TV channel based on if people on the show “remind herself of herself”—the result of that search was Brandon Staley, a 37 year-old Vic Fangio protege. 

FWIW, I think Vic Fangio’s D—which could have been our D if the Bears hadn’t blocked him from interviewing to come back to run the defense under Shanahan—is the best in the business. I also think he was Shanahan’s top pick as DC but I obviously have no means of proving that. Which then also presents an alternate reality where Fangio has been made a head coach somewhere else and Staley is actually our defensive coordinator at the moment… (head explosion emoji). Anyways…

The Vic Fangio defense employs a 3-4 front that generates pressure with four but can bring blitzers if needed; its two-high quarters coverage gives tremendous flexibility and lots of help to corners or safeties so they can play above their means; its versatile fronts and personnel groupings wreck havoc on opposing blocking schemes; and in general it’s just very well-coached and takes away big plays as well as any defense. Granted, that’s what the Fangio defense looks like under Fangio. But early in his tenure, Graham’s unit has been impressive. 

The Rams have the flexibility to play three- or four-man fronts, largely because Aaron Donald—the best player in all of football—can line up anywhere along the line and have success. The rest of their front seven is made up of a smattering of assorted parts. Former first-rounder Leonard Floyd comes in from Chicago as their latest Dante Fowler-esque reclamation project. He’s got juice off the edge but has yet to make a major impact thus far. Opposite him is Samson Ebukam whose had a rough transition to the new defense. According to PFF, he’s ranked dead last—110th out of 110—amongst all edge defenders this year. 

At linebacker, the Rams take the same approach as the Eagles: they don’t value the position. Three years ago when they last time they totally disregarded the position they unearthed UDFA Cory Littleton, one of the top coverage linebackers in the league. Now he’s gone and they’re trying to replace him with two rookies. It has not gone well, although Troy Reeder—who played only 18 snaps prior to this Sunday—totaled 11 tackles, 2 for loss, and three sacks against the Racial Slurs. I have no idea if that means he’s about to break out or if it was a total fluke against a bad football team.

In the secondary, the Rams run almost entirely split-field coverages (although they do have a three-high safety look that I wouldn’t expect against us). Their safeties are good and their boundary corner play is very strong. That starts with Jalen Ramsey, one of if not the best corner in the league. While the Cover 2 Read system doesn’t require great cornerback play, Ramsey’s ability allows them to be more creative with their split-field coverages and not worry about isolated receivers opposite trips formations. He has the talent and athleticism that he gets to freelance a bit.

First thing’s first when you play the Rams: make sure Aaron Donald doesn’t single-handedly blow up your entire offensive game plan, which—given the massive struggles of our offensive line in pass protection—is not out of the question. If we can block him upfront, the rest of the rushers aren’t world-beaters, but—as evidenced by their eight sacks against Washington last week—they‘re far from inept in the pressure department. Running the ball early and often could help keep them at bay. This Rams team has the 3rd-best DVOA against the pass but is ranked 24th against the run—averaging a healthy 4.7 yards/carry through five weeks of play against largely subpar rushing attacks. We need the run game to be successful and to remain a viable option throughout this contest otherwise we’ll risk exposing our gimpy quarterback to some tough looks. The last thing we want is to get into a similar game flow as last week.

Like the Eagles, the Rams believe in finding linebackers cheap and via the draft, NOT paying them. Three years ago, scouting/luck led them to Cory Littleton emerging into one of the top coverage linebackers in the game. Now he’s gone and the new crop doesn’t look as promising. If we can establish the run game and have success in our heavy sets that will put their linebackers in a more compromised position in the passing game—where our talented tight ends and backs can work the middle of the field. Considering their talent on the boundaries, we should be able to find some success between the hashes as long as we can pull safety help via alignment and route combinations. We need to get our wideouts more involved, but—if possible—avoiding Ramsey unless absolutely necessary would be recommended.

The past two games have seen us go wildly off-script. Against the Eagles it was due to poor pass protection and poor execution by Nick Mullens. Against the Dolphins it was due to... well pretty much everything. But despite the past two performances, we’re far from a bad team and this doesn’t have to be a lost season. If we avoid the mistakes and negative plays that have plagued us this season and control game flow like we did last year, we can win this game. As stated before, the best teams’ down years are still playoff years. While I’m not sure the best teams have ever been as ravaged by injuries as we currently are, that should still be the standard, and winning a critical divisional battle to regain a positive trajectory would be a nice first step.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Dolphins 43, 49ers 17

The lasting impression from this game, no matter how hard you try to forget… [USA Today]

This one will be short.

While it’s unlikely our offense or defense ever looks worse than they did on Sunday—at least at the same time—we are fully behind the eight ball and dead last in the NFC West as we enter the toughest part of our schedule: a seven-game stretch against teams with a combined record of 24-6—including three of the NFL’s five remaining unbeatens.

Our defense will get healthier, with key reinforcements arriving as soon as next week. Jimmy G will improve as his ankle does, although to what level of play remains a big TBD. We won’t look this bad again. But if we want any chance of making the playoffs, our passing attack will need to take exponential leaps forward, and we’re all out of bad defenses and bad teams that’ll let us make that progress at our own pace.

While it’s not worth spending too much time dwelling over or looking at what was—based on expectations—the single-most disappointing performance of the Shanahan era, public expectations have already started shifting towards a somewhat cursed down year. We’ll know within the next few weeks how much those expectations match reality.

OFFENSE

Jimmy “Goddammit Don’t Make Me Start Looking Up Film of Trey Lance In October” Garoppolo: It’s impossible to say how much the ankle injury led to what was almost certainly the least accurate performance of Jimmy Garoppolo’s career. While past subpar Jimmy G performances have largely centered around poor decision making leading to interceptions, it was Garoppolo’s wild inaccuracy that led to interceptions on Sunday. Was this an aberration due to injury? An ongoing trend that began week 1 against the Cardinals? It’s hard to say, but either way, this is a major prove-it year for Jimmy G.

Garoppolo is locked up through 2022 on a team-friendly average annual salary of $27.5M. As of now, he’s the 12th-highest paid quarterback in terms of AAV salary—$2M below Ryan Tannehill, $500K above Matthew Stanford—but that undersells his relative value. If you’re comparing Jimmy G’s value you have to first take away any starter on a rookie contract. The rookie wage scale depresses their value, and teams like the Ravens, Bills, and Cardinals are joining the $35M+/year club sooner rather than later while teams like the Browns, Broncos, and Racial Slurs have expensive decisions to be made shortly as well. So if we’re counting only veterans, there are just seven (and a half, if you count Nick Foles) veteran starting quarterbacks in the league who make a lower average annual salary than Jimmy Garoppolo; five of them make $25M+ a year, so they’re within a negligible $2.5M/year of Jimmy. The other two (and a half) are Foles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. So while moving on from Garoppolo would be financially easy after this year (only $2.8M in dead cap in 2021), replacing him would be a much harder task. Let’s look at the options.

If they’re allowed to hit the open market, would you be willing to pay top dollar—under a pandemic dampened cap—for Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, or Dak Prescott (fresh off a brutal season-ending ankle injury)? If you’d prefer cap savings, maybe you could attempt a Ryan Tannehill-esque revival of a former young starter like Marcus Mariota, Jacoby Brissett, or (shoot me in the fucking face and don’t bother burying the body) Jameis Winston? You could try and acquire a former starter who’s getting supplanted by a rookie next year— guys like Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew, or maybe even Matt Ryan now that Quinn is gone could be available. But is that an improvement? And if you’re getting one of them on the back-end of their rookie deal, are you confident about making a big money decision on them after a single season? Lastly, there’s one other option: you target a quarterback in the draft. I’m not going to get into the specifics of the draft in early October, but this is a very strong quarterback class with at least three top 5-10 talents and various value picks on the second (and potentially even third) days; if we find someone we like, package the appropriate draft capital to secure them, and feel confident about their long-term trajectory, that still means we’d be starting a rookie in a Kyle Shanahan offense. Immediate returns would be highly unlikely.

Regardless of how well or poorly we finish this season as a team, the remainder of 2020 is very much an audition year for Jimmy G. By end-of-year he needs to at least hit last year’s levels while showing a trajectory for further growth. Because if he’s not our guy that will greatly effect how we approach a critical off-season.

Pass Pro Woes: They continued this week, to the tune of 5 sacks and 8 QB hits allowed, but unlike past week’s blunders these weren’t all execution issues—some were communication/assignment issues instead. Like above with Jimmy G, I’m not sure if that’s better or worse, but it ultimately resulted in another underwhelming game in pass protection—this time to a team with a bottom 10 passing defense and a middle-of-the-pack pass rush.

It’s not always easy to tell who is messing up their assignment and why on the offensive line, but sometimes a heady center can help in that regard. While there’s been few updates on the rehab of our guys on the PUP list, they’re all eligible to be activated this week, including Weston Richburg. In two years with the team, Richburg has yet to hit the highs of an elite pass-blocking center that he showed while with the Giants, but—if healthy—he could (finally) provide a boost in that department. 

Edge Game: The only real positive on offense was the performance of our run game. The Niners carried the ball 19 times for 131 yards on a healthy 6.9 ypc clip. While the score differential would imply some of that was due to garbage time, our run game was largely effective even when the game was close.

The Niners forced the issue in getting to the edge, utilizing sweeps and tosses to outflank the Dolphins front and create creases for our running backs. While toss looks are much worse for play action purposes, and thus less useful than handoffs in opening up our passing game, they did allow Mostert to bust a 37-yarder down the sideline to set up our first score of the game. In his first game back from an MCL sprain, Mostert was one of the only bright spots on offense, putting up 90 yards on 11 carries and consistently getting positive yardage regardless of the type of run.

As stated before, there’s really no reason why our rushing attack should be any worse than last year’s so hopefully we can keep the momentum going on the ground. Leaning on a rejuvenated run game would be quite the useful crutch for a team whose quarterbacks have—over the past two games—turned the ball over six times.

DEFENSE

Never mind, bring back Dontae Johnson: On most defensive plays, it’s hard to isolate a single player who’s totally at fault for letting up a big gain. This was not the case on Sunday. Whether it was fades, slants, or even more fades, Brian Allen—our practice squad call-up to replace the injured Sherman/Moseley/Witherspoon/Johnson—was isolated early (the first play) and often (multiple times per drive). The result was an individual roasting worse than I’ve seen in quite some time.

On the first four drives the Dolphins ran 23 plays, secured 9 first downs, and totaled 221 yards en route to a 21-7 lead. During that time, Brian Allen allowed 5 catches, 124 yards, three first down completions, two first downs off of 31 yards of penalties, and one touchdown. The series after the touchdown he was pulled for a one-legged Witherspoon, only for Jamar Taylor—K’Waun Williams’ practice squad call-up—to allow a completion of 70 yards. I know it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy to pull out big plays and examine the others separately, but the stats are stark enough here that they’re worth pointing out. Even if you take out the yardage from Allen’s penalties, he and Taylor gave up 194 yards, four first downs, and a score on only six plays for a HEALTHY 32.3 yards/play. On the 57 other plays our defense ran—including the ones where the Niners had largely called it in—the Dolphins gained 242 yards on 4.2 yards/play.

You can’t really blame these two as they are—with no exaggeration—our seventh- and eighth-string cornerbacks. They should never be playing in regular season games. And while Taylor has had positive snaps in the past, Allen was simply outclassed on the field. At some point you have to either pull him or get him some help in coverage—even if that opens things up elsewhere. By the time he was yanked the Niners were already down 14 points and had allowed over half of their yardage on the day. The damage was done. Some of that is on Robert Saleh/Tony Oden. As was the case with Witherspoon late last year, they kept someone in too long in hopes that they’d work it out, and it put the Niners in a hole. In this case that hole was simply too deep and the rest of the team too out-of-sorts for the Niners to climb out of.

Granted, if they’d pulled Allen perhaps they had no one to replace him with? After the game the coaches admitted that Witherspoon was suited up only in case of emergency and took the field only after pleading his case to the coaches. But isn’t Ken Webster also on the active roster? While he came from the Dolphins practice squad and they’d surely know him well, could he have been any worse? And if so, why didn’t the Niners have any other cornerbacks on the active roster? My guess, they’re tapped out of DBs on the practice squad, are expecting the return—very very shortly—of some combination—or all three—of Richard Sherman, Emmanuel Moseley, and Ahkello Witherspoon, and didn’t want to fill a roster spot for a single game only to let that player go again a day later. Which seems to assume they wouldn’t need another corner against a team like the Dolphins. Which feels like a microcosm of this entire game.

For the sake of our sanity, let’s hope this was the wake-up call that last week should have been and that we’re not only healthier but considerably more effective for our Sunday night matchup with the Rams.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Preview: Wk5 vs. Dolphins

This man went to Harvard

Opponent: Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Date: Sunday, 10/11
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: 1:05 PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally

Despite their laughable start to last season—which included an 0-7 start and getting out scored 16-133 in their first three games—the Miami Dolphins rebounded quite well down the stretch. After first-year head coach Brian Flores successfully installed his system and got players to buy in, the Dolphins—despite being woefully out-talented on all fronts—finished 3-2 in their last five games, including wins over the playoff-bound Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots.

Loaded with draft picks and flush with cap space, the Dolphins committed to a speedy turnaround this off-season, drafting 11 players (five in the first 56 picks) and spending a whopping $237 million in free agency. I’m bull-ish on this team in the long-term. Presently, they’re not a powerhouse but they’re far from a pushover. They just hung in tight with the Seahawks until deep into the fourth quarter, have played tough in each week of a difficult opening schedule, and are a must-win contest if we want to stay in playoff contention.

INJURY REPORT

Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle), Raheem Mostert (knee), Dre Greenlaw (thigh), and Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) were all back at practice this week, although each of them were limited. Seems like there’s a chance that all four play. I’d guess Mostert is the least likely, but don’t set your fantasy rosters based on that… at cornerback, Dontae Johnson (groin) sat out practice while Emmanuel Moseley (concussion) remains in the protocol… hopefully he’s alright… K’Waun Williams (knee) was just put on short-term IR, and Richard Sherman (calf) is eligible to return to practice this week but Shanahan has said he likely won’t be back until the Rams game at the earliest. A potential bright spot is that long-hyped-by-me practice squadder Tim Harris is off IR. If there’s a silver lining to a potentially depleted cornerback corps, it’s that maybe we can finally get a quick glimpse of Harris.

OFFENSE

Last year’s Dolphins ranked 28th in offensive DVOA, 24th in passing, and dead-last in rushing. Like every other AFC East offense, they sucked. In an attempt to rectify that, the Fins made wholesale changes on the offensive end.

The Dolphins OL allowed a league-worst 58 sacks last year; their adjusted line yardage was—by a gigantic margin—also worst in the league (the difference between their mark and second-to-last was greater than the difference between the second-to-last and 12th-ranked lines). In the off-season they reloaded the line with four new starters, poaching New England’s long-time backup and 2019 starting center Ted Karras, swooping guard Ereck Flowers from the Racial Slurs, and starting rookies at guard and tackle. Unsurprisingly, it’s not a lights out group, but—at least in the passing game—they’re able to hide things schematically.

Chad O’Shea, long-time Patriots wide receiver coach, is out after a single season as the Dolphins’ OC—replaced by Chan Gailey, former OC of the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills (for some reason all AFC East teams can only hire other AFC East coaches). While Gailey is the Ryan Fitzpatrick whisperer—having coached him to success in both New York and Buffalo—he was likely brought on more because the offenses he used to run share similarities with the NFL’s current trends—namely they use lots of 3- and 4-receiver sets and RPOs, which future signal caller Tua Tagovailoa was the GOAT at in college. The hope is that Gailey can bring out more Fitzmagic than Fitztragic and establish a foundation for Tua’s eventual ascension. So far this season, Fitzpatrick hasn’t scratched Fitzmagic levels, but he’s kept them in ball games with quick, high-percentage throws.

At the skill positions, this is a team with a lot of size that’s lacking in underneath separation. Fitzpatrick will be throwing to two jumbo receivers on the outside in Preston Williams (6-4, 210 lbs.) and DeVante Parker (6-3, 216 lbs.). Williams was a nice surprise as a rookie last year while the former first-rounder Parker—after years of hype, injuries, and failed expectations—finally broke out in his fifth year as a pro with 1,202 yards and 9 scores on a healthy 16.7 yards per catch. Filling out the rest of the 11 and 10 personnel packages are Jakeem Grant and Isaiah Ford—your standard quick underneath guys that every team seems to have an abundance of but don’t really move the needle one way or another. At tight end, Mike Gesicki is another giant target for Fitzpatrick, and one who has played well this season, but he’s yet to get involved in the offense on a consistent basis. The Dolphins didn’t add any wideouts in free agency or the draft, their only acquisition being a trade for third-rounder Lynn Bowden who is talented, raw, potentially troublesome (hence why he was traded), and certainly not ready to see the field against us beyond some potential wildcatt-y stuff due to our issues guarding the zone read. Speaking of zone read, Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually much more mobile than you probably thought. He averages 5+ carries per game, has already rushed for 115 yards and two scores on the ground, and will absolutely be a pain in the ass both in designed runs and off-script ones.

The Dolphins want to spread the field, throw quick game, pass-to-run, and rely on their quarterback’s feet to convert some third downs. That is the blueprint for annoyance against our zone-heavy, dual-threat susceptible defense, and could be a game flow nightmare if we’re not putting them behind the sticks (for example, they had a 17-play, 73-yard drive that took 7:59 off the clock and ended with a field goal against the Seahawks). However, they lack the talent up front or the explosive potential to threaten outside of their dink-and-dunk comfort zone, so if we can generate pressure on a hit-or-miss offensive line and contest balls at the catch point against their jumbo pass catchers, we should generate enough third-and-longs to make things difficult on a team that relies almost entirely on long, plodding drives.

So far this season, Fitzpatrick has been exactly what the Dolphins need him to be, a bridge to delay the deployment of Tua. But when he can’t read the defense confidently and get the ball out quick, his middling arm talent shows, he can start to force things, and we increase the chances of summoning Fitztragic, his interception-prone and greatly preferred alter ego.

DEFENSE

Defense is Flores’ specialty, but that hasn’t translated to Miami yet. A long-term assistant for the New England Patriots, Shanalynch actually interviewed Flores for the Niners’ DC position while he was in New England (before he was calling their plays). Two years later—and fresh off a masterful neutering of the Rams’ offense in the Super Bowl—he was named head coach of the Dolphins.

The Dolphins have seen a massive overhaul on D as they try to fit an assortment of parts into a position-less hybrid 3-4 front that has the secondary talent to run man coverage on the backend. New additions Emmanuel Ogbah (Cleveland), Shaq Lawson (Buffalo), and Kyle Van Noy (New England) make up their edge/second-line tweener group while high draft picks like Raekwon Davis (2020 second-rounder) and Christian Wilkins (2019 first-rounder) are the core of their true down linemen. We’ve all seen what happens to Patriots players when they leave Foxborough, but... if anyone can get similar production from Van Noy it’s likely Flores. Lawson and Ogbah are intriguing pieces; both have shown flashes but neither ever developed into that pure edge rusher that so many teams are looking for. The Dolphins’ hope is that their skillsets will shine brighter in a more hybrid scheme but as of now they’ve yet to find their pass rush.

The Dolphins have pumped big money into their secondary, with their two starting boundary corners making a combined $31.5M/year in average annual salary. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones make up a formidable duo on the outside and testing them through the air isn’t likely to be a big part of our game plan. Howard has largely returned to form after a down 2019; Jones has missed the last few weeks with a groin injury but is expected to return against the Niners. If he doesn’t, rookie replacement Noah Igbinoghene has been burnt toast all year (ranking 111st out of 112 qualifying corners per PFF) and both he and slot corner Nik Needham should be targeted whenever possible.

Against man coverage and two top corners on the boundaries, the Niners will likely show some condensed sets, bunch formations, and motion to confuse assignments and move our outside playmakers away from Howard and Jones. Our tight ends and backs will have a chance to win one-on-one matchups in this one, both at their normal positions and split out wide in more pass-heavy looks as safeties and linebackers bounce out to guard them. The Dolphins are talented on the boundaries but their slot corners and linebackers have had issues in coverage. That’s not a great formula for stopping us. After what Kittle did to Philadelphia, I’d have to assume the Fins roll A LOT of extra coverage his way, attempting to use multiple looks, bracket coverages, and rotating defenders to try and offset the talent gap with variety. This will either fail, and he’ll still dominate, or work enough that other guys get plenty of advantageous looks. We can only hope the answer is both.

Until someone DOESN’T run it against us, I’d expect to see the wide-aligned edge defenders that we’ve faced in every matchup this year. Since those edge guys will often be stand-up linebackers they’ll likely try to disrupt our outside run game and disguise drops into the flats and short alley to take away potential backside slant/RPO situations. This would be a nice week to thin out those loaded boxes with the quick passing game, fix some issues on the OL, and throw down a trademark run game explosion so our offense has some momentum moving forward. By practically any statistic imaginable the Dolphins have one of the worst defenses in football this year. They are certainly the worst defense we’ve faced and the worst rushing defense by a mile. Jumping out early would be huge against a Dolphins team that has made a habit of hanging on late with more talented squads. Mostert or no Mostert, Jimmy G or no Jimmy G, this is a matchup where our offense needs to impress.

After the Dolphins, we head into a seven-game stretch against teams with a combined 22-6 record, a run that includes matchups against half of the league’s remaining unbeaten teams. Even with the expanded playoffs, entering that two-month stretch with a 2-3 record would put us in a mighty big hole to climb out of. Let’s avoid that.

Go Niners 👍🏈